Yandy Díaz

DH · RHB · RHP · TBR

// TONIGHT'S MATCHUP

Home vs

ATH

Starter

Brady Basso

Stadium

Tropicana Field

Model HR%

17.1%

Model Hits%

73.8%

Tonight's top play

Hits UNDER 1.5+5.6% edgemodel 65% · grade A

Why: struggles vs the Cutter (22% usage, .246 xwOBA).

Verdict

one call per prop — does the model agree with recent reality?

Prop	Pick	Model	Edge	L10	Verdict
Hits	UNDER 1.5	65%	+5.6%	60%	STRONG
Home Runs	OVER 0.5	17%	+3.3%	10%	CAUTION

Our track record

settled S/A/B picks on Yandy Díaz, by confidence tier

Tier	Record	Hit rate	ROI
S	9-2	82%	+84.6%
A	12-6	67%	+62.9%
B	6-14	30%	+0.6%

Combined 27-22 · n=49 · ROI +42.3% · avg CLV +0.0 pts · beat close 0%

Matchup

Yandy Díaz (RHB) vs Brady Basso favors batterfavors pitcher

Brady Basso · season · 37.9 IP · 163 BF

BAA

.288

wOBA

.285

SLG

.449

ISO

.160

WHIP

1.37

HR/9

0.71

BB%

4.3%

17.2%

Whiff%

—

Barrel%

0.9%

HH%

31.9%

FB%

30.2%

HR/FB%

8.6%

Yandy Díaz hitting

Split	H-AB	BA	SLG	ISO	HR	BB%	K%
Season	182-602	.302	.460	.158	22	9.6%	15.8%
vs ?HP	132-437	.302	.449	.146	14	9.3%	16.9%

Pitch-type matchup

Brady Basso's arsenal × how Yandy Díaz hits it · since 2025 · TOP = batter's spot

Brady Basso throws

Pitch	Usage	Velo	Whiff	xwOBA
TOPFour-Seam	50%	93.0	16%	.310
Cutter	22%	88.8	27%	.408
Curveball	16%	77.8	17%	.273
Changeup	9%	86.3	10%	.513
Sinker	3%	92.9	0%	—

Yandy Díaz vs each

Pitch	Seen	Whiff	xwOBA	EV
TOPFour-Seam	864	17%	.467	96.0
Cutter	358	13%	.246	88.9
Curveball	150	11%	.331	90.3
Changeup	262	12%	.377	93.3
Sinker	824	10%	.370	91.4

xwOBA = expected wOBA from exit velo + launch angle. Green favors the batter, red favors the pitcher.

Hit-rate history

per-game results vs the line · green = over · red = under

OVER

0.5

Hits

60%6/10 · L10 · avg 1.1

Our model26% UNDER+0.2% edgePASS

Recent form

per-game over the last 10Avg PA4.6

Plate Appearancesavg 4.6

Hitsavg 1.1

Singlesavg 0.8

Doublesavg 0.2

Total Basesavg 1.6

Home Runsavg 0.1

Strikeoutsavg 0.7

Walksavg 0.1

Tonight's lines

2026-09-16 · every line we grade — bet any, not just the headline · BEST = best edge · Move = open→now (CLV once settled)

Doubles + Triples

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Save	Track
0.5	—	PASS	10%	—	+325	+0.0	Sign in to save	—

Hits

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Save	Track
0.5	UNDER	PASS	26%	+0.2%	+260	+0.0	Sign in to save	Sign in
BEST1.5	UNDER	A	65%	+5.6%	-147	+0.0	Sign in to save	Sign in

Home Runs

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Save	Track
BEST0.5	OVER	B	17%	+3.3%	+575	+0.0	Sign in to save	Sign in

RBIs

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Save	Track
0.5	—	PASS	12%	—	+176	+0.0	Sign in to save	—
1.5	—	PASS	9%	—	+600	+0.0	Sign in to save	—

Singles

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Save	Track
0.5	—	PASS	57%	—	-165	+0.0	Sign in to save	—
1.5	—	B	16%	—	+340	+0.0	Sign in to save	—

Total Bases

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Save	Track
1.5	—	PASS	41%	—	-108	+0.0	Sign in to save	—
2.5	—	PASS	26%	—	+230	+0.0	Sign in to save	—

Same-game parlay

pick 2+ — we price the correlation the book won't

Splits

Career n=666 PA · 2026-03-15 → 2026-09-13

Season Career

Split	H-AB	BA	SLG	ISO	2B	3B	HR	BB	K%
Season 2026 season	182-602	.302	.460	.158	27	1	22	64	15.8%
vs LHP left-handed pitching	50-165	.303	.491	.188	7	0	8	19	12.7%
vs RHP right-handed pitching	132-437	.302	.449	.146	20	1	14	45	16.9%
Last 15 days recent form	14-48	.292	.396	.104	2	0	1	2	12.5%
@ Tropicana Field tonight's stadium	9479-27805	.341	.528	.187	1643	0	1187	2799	20.2%

xStats luck

xwOBA0.341

wOBA0.367

delta+0.026 hot

n=666 PA

Spray chart

1020 balls in play since 2025

Balls in play1020

HR rate4.6%

Hard-hit (95+)53%

Avg exit velo92.6 mph

Ground ball52%

Line drive23%

Fly ball20%

What kind of arm does he crush?

top 3 pitcher traits by |lift|

Vs. fastball-heavy pitcher (FB% ≥ 55%)

-39.3%significant

n=445 games · 30/259 HR when active

Vs. fly-ball-prone pitcher (FB% allowed > 40%)

+52.7%significant

n=459 games · 19/80 HR when active

Vs. high-xwOBA pitcher (xwOBA allowed > .340)

-22.2%significant

n=464 games · 9/77 HR when active

// PLAYER DNA

HR signature· refreshed 2026-09-15

// TONIGHT

2 / 3HELPING · IN PLAY

Slight favorable lean

// IN PLAY TONIGHT

+52% HR rate when playing at home.
+43% HR rate when vs short-leash starter (avg ip < 5.0).
−39% HR rate when vs fastball-heavy pitcher (fb% ≥ 55%).

helping tonighthurting tonightnot in play tonight

Vs. fly-ball-prone pitcher (FB% allowed > 40%)

1.53× HR rate

80 yes / 379 no · 72 HRs

Playing at hometonight

1.52× HR rate

242 yes / 224 no · 74 HRs

Vs. short-leash starter (avg IP < 5.0)tonight

+43%

182 yes / 273 no · 70 HRs

Vs. fastball-heavy pitcher (FB% ≥ 55%)tonight

0.61× HR rate

259 yes / 186 no · 68 HRs

Platoon advantage (LHB-vs-RHP or RHB-vs-LHP)

+39%

94 yes / 226 no · 47 HRs

Hot streak (L5 avg EV > career baseline)

+35%

204 yes / 257 no · 72 HRs

Summer game (Jun-Aug)

−32%

220 yes / 246 no · 74 HRs

HR-suppressing park (factor ≤ 0.95)

−24%

48 yes / 416 no · 73 HRs

Vs. high-xwOBA pitcher (xwOBA allowed > .340)

−22%

77 yes / 387 no · 73 HRs

// 19 more factors — small sample / no significant lift

Opposing starter's recent FB velo down ≥1 mph

+19%

61 yes / 322 no · 62 HRs

≥1 career HR vs this pitcher

−18%

50 yes / 416 no · 74 HRs

Vs. HR-prone pitcher (HR/PA > 3.8%)

+15%

70 yes / 391 no · 73 HRs

Vs. pull-fly-ball-prone pitcher (>18%)

+14%

330 yes / 129 no · 72 HRs

No rest day (B2B or doubleheader)

−14%

361 yes / 104 no · 74 HRs

First-pitch temperature > 78°F

+13%

222 yes / 234 no · 71 HRs

Batting 3-4-5 in the order

+12%

72 yes / 394 no · 74 HRs

Rested (2+ days off)

+9%

27 yes / 438 no · 74 HRs

3rd time through order vs starter

+8%

351 yes / 115 no · 74 HRs

Wind blowing out (≥10 mph, outdoor)

+8%

4 yes / 452 no · 71 HRs

Cold month (Apr / Sep / Oct)

+7%

137 yes / 329 no · 74 HRs

Vs. hittable pitcher (BAA > .260)

+7%

77 yes / 388 no · 73 HRs

Opposing starter coming off >7 days rest

−6%

78 yes / 367 no · 67 HRs

HR-friendly park (factor ≥ 1.10)

neutral

60 yes / 404 no · 73 HRs

Vs. high-contact-quality pitcher (avg EV allowed ≥ 89 mph)

neutral

202 yes / 263 no · 73 HRs

≥3 career HRs vs this pitcher

neutral

0 yes / 466 no · 74 HRs

≥2 career HRs vs this pitcher

neutral

0 yes / 466 no · 74 HRs

Vs. low-whiff pitcher (whiff% < 22%)

neutral

0 yes / 0 no · 0 HRs

Vs. barrel-prone pitcher (Barrel% allowed > 9%)

neutral

0 yes / 459 no · 72 HRs

// LIFT = P(HR | factor true) ÷ P(HR | factor false), Bayesian- shrunk with K=30 pseudo-games. Significance requires |lift − 1| ≥ 0.20 AND smaller cohort n ≥ 15. Cohort = top 60 HR hitters, last 2 seasons. Refreshed weekly. Green/red = the factor's effect on tonight's HR chance; gray = not in play tonight.

Last 10 games

Per-game outcomes — most recent first.

Date	PA	H	2B	HR	BB	K	Outcomes
2026-09-15	4	0	0	0	0	1	0-for-4 · 1 K
2026-09-13	5	2	0	0	0	0	2-for-5 · 1 RBI · 2 R
2026-09-12	4	0	0	0	0	1	0-for-4 · 1 K
2026-09-11	4	0	0	0	0	2	0-for-4 · 2 K
2026-09-10	4	1	0	0	0	1	1-for-4 · 1 K
2026-09-09	5	1	0	0	0	0	1-for-5 · 1 RBI
2026-09-08	5	2	1	1	0	1	2-for-5 · 1 HR · 2 RBI · 1 R · 1 K
2026-09-06	5	2	0	0	0	1	2-for-5 · 1 RBI · 1 R · 1 K
2026-09-05	5	0	0	0	1	0	0-for-4 · 1 R · 1 BB
2026-09-04	5	3	1	0	0	0	3-for-5 · 1 2B · 1 R

Nearest neighbors

Top 10 hitters most similar to Yandy Díaz across 38 features. Comp Lab uses these for small-sample BvP matchups.

Comp data temporarily unavailable.