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Yandy Díaz
DH · RHB · RHP · TBR
// TONIGHT'S MATCHUP
Tonight's top play
Home Runs OVER 0.5+3.5% edgemodel 16% · grade B
Why: NOT Vs. fastball-heavy pitcher (FB% ≥ 55%): -45.5% lift over 173 games · strong vs the Four-Seam (27% usage, .467 xwOBA).
Verdict
one call per prop — does the model agree with recent reality?Our track record
settled S/A/B picks on Yandy Díaz, by confidence tier| Tier | Record | Hit rate | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| S | 5-3 | 63% | +39.2% |
| A | 4-3 | 57% | -9.1% |
| B | 6-5 | 55% | +9.2% |
Combined 15-11 · n=26 · ROI +13.5% · avg CLV +0.0 pts · beat close 0%
Matchup
Yandy Díaz (RHB) vs Anthony Kay LHPfavors batterfavors pitcherPitch-type matchup
Anthony Kay's arsenal × how Yandy Díaz hits it · since 2025 · TOP = batter's spotxwOBA = expected wOBA from exit velo + launch angle. Green favors the batter, red favors the pitcher.
Hit-rate history
per-game results vs the line · green = over · red = underRecent form
per-game over the last 10Avg PA4.5Plate Appearancesavg 4.5
Hitsavg 1.0
Singlesavg 0.7
Doublesavg 0.1
Total Basesavg 1.7
Home Runsavg 0.2
Strikeoutsavg 0.9
Walksavg 0.3
Tonight's lines
2026-08-02 · every line we grade — bet any, not just the headline · BEST = best edge · Move = open→now (CLV once settled)Same-game parlay
pick 2+ — we price the correlation the book won'tSplits
Career n=485 PA · 2026-03-15 → 2026-07-31
xStats luck
xwOBA0.343
wOBA0.381
delta+0.038 hot
n=485 PA
Spray chart
870 balls in play since 2025Balls in play870
HR rate4.6%
Hard-hit (95+)53%
Avg exit velo92.7 mph
Ground ball52%
Line drive23%
Fly ball20%
What kind of arm does he crush?
top 3 pitcher traits by |lift|
-45.5%significant
n=405 games · 24/232 HR when active
-26.4%significant
n=422 games · 23/185 HR when active
+28.4%significant
n=417 games · 14/70 HR when active
// PLAYER DNA
HR signature· refreshed 2026-07-28
// TONIGHT
1 / 2HELPING · IN PLAY
Mixed signals tonight
// IN PLAY TONIGHT
- +52% HR rate when playing at home.
- −38% HR rate when summer game (jun-aug).
helping tonighthurting tonightnot in play tonight
Playing at hometonight
1.52× HR rate
220 yes / 203 no · 66 HRs
Vs. fastball-heavy pitcher (FB% ≥ 55%)
0.55× HR rate
232 yes / 173 no · 60 HRs
Summer game (Jun-Aug)tonight
0.62× HR rate
189 yes / 234 no · 66 HRs
HR-suppressing park (factor ≤ 0.95)
−32%
39 yes / 382 no · 65 HRs
Hot streak (L5 avg EV > career baseline)
+31%
190 yes / 228 no · 64 HRs
Platoon advantage (LHB-vs-RHP or RHB-vs-LHP)
+30%
84 yes / 203 no · 41 HRs
Vs. fly-ball-prone pitcher (FB% allowed > 40%)
+28%
70 yes / 347 no · 64 HRs
Vs. short-leash starter (avg IP < 5.0)
+28%
165 yes / 249 no · 62 HRs
Vs. high-contact-quality pitcher (avg EV allowed ≥ 89 mph)
−26%
185 yes / 237 no · 65 HRs
// 19 more factors — small sample / no significant lift
Vs. pull-fly-ball-prone pitcher (>18%)
−19%
290 yes / 127 no · 64 HRs
Opposing starter's recent FB velo down ≥1 mph
+18%
52 yes / 296 no · 55 HRs
≥1 career HR vs this pitcher
−17%
43 yes / 380 no · 66 HRs
HR-friendly park (factor ≥ 1.10)
+16%
54 yes / 367 no · 65 HRs
Vs. HR-prone pitcher (HR/PA > 3.8%)
−14%
62 yes / 357 no · 65 HRs
Rested (2+ days off)
+12%
26 yes / 396 no · 66 HRs
Vs. high-xwOBA pitcher (xwOBA allowed > .340)
−11%
74 yes / 347 no · 65 HRs
Batting 3-4-5 in the order
+10%
69 yes / 354 no · 66 HRs
No rest day (B2B or doubleheader)
−9%
323 yes / 99 no · 66 HRs
Cold month (Apr / Sep / Oct)
+9%
125 yes / 298 no · 66 HRs
First-pitch temperature > 78°F
+9%
187 yes / 226 no · 63 HRs
Wind blowing out (≥10 mph, outdoor)
+8%
4 yes / 409 no · 63 HRs
Opposing starter coming off >7 days rest
+6%
70 yes / 332 no · 59 HRs
3rd time through order vs starter
+6%
315 yes / 108 no · 66 HRs
Vs. hittable pitcher (BAA > .260)
neutral
70 yes / 352 no · 65 HRs
Vs. barrel-prone pitcher (Barrel% allowed > 9%)
neutral
0 yes / 417 no · 64 HRs
≥3 career HRs vs this pitcher
neutral
0 yes / 423 no · 66 HRs
≥2 career HRs vs this pitcher
neutral
0 yes / 423 no · 66 HRs
Vs. low-whiff pitcher (whiff% < 22%)
neutral
0 yes / 0 no · 0 HRs
// LIFT = P(HR | factor true) ÷ P(HR | factor false), Bayesian- shrunk with K=30 pseudo-games. Significance requires |lift − 1| ≥ 0.20 AND smaller cohort n ≥ 15. Cohort = top 60 HR hitters, last 2 seasons. Refreshed weekly. Green/red = the factor's effect on tonight's HR chance; gray = not in play tonight.
Last 10 games
Per-game outcomes — most recent first.
Nearest neighbors
Top 10 hitters most similar to Yandy Díaz across 38 features. Comp Lab uses these for small-sample BvP matchups.
Comp data temporarily unavailable.