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Yandy Díaz
DH · RHB · RHP · TBR
Our track record
settled S/A/B picks on Yandy Díaz, by confidence tier| Tier | Record | Hit rate | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| S | 5-3 | 63% | +39.2% |
| A | 4-4 | 50% | -20.5% |
| B | 6-8 | 43% | -14.2% |
Combined 15-15 · n=30 · ROI -1.6% · avg CLV +0.0 pts · beat close 0%
Hit-rate history
per-game results vs the line · green = over · red = underRecent form
per-game over the last 10Avg PA4.3Plate Appearancesavg 4.3
Hitsavg 1.0
Singlesavg 0.6
Doublesavg 0.3
Total Basesavg 1.6
Home Runsavg 0.1
Strikeoutsavg 1.1
Walksavg 0.3
Splits
Career n=2,431 PA · 2023-03-30 → 2026-08-04
xStats luck
xwOBA0.346
wOBA0.376
delta+0.030 hot
n=504 PA
Spray chart
889 balls in play since 2025Balls in play889
HR rate4.5%
Hard-hit (95+)53%
Avg exit velo92.7 mph
Ground ball52%
Line drive23%
Fly ball20%
What kind of arm does he crush?
top 3 pitcher traits by |lift|
-44.9%significant
n=411 games · 25/238 HR when active
+29.8%significant
n=423 games · 14/69 HR when active
-18.2%small sample
n=428 games · 25/186 HR when active
// PLAYER DNA
HR signature· refreshed 2026-08-04
helping tonighthurting tonightnot in play tonight
Playing at home
1.51× HR rate
226 yes / 203 no · 67 HRs
Vs. fastball-heavy pitcher (FB% ≥ 55%)
0.55× HR rate
238 yes / 173 no · 61 HRs
Summer game (Jun-Aug)
0.63× HR rate
195 yes / 234 no · 67 HRs
Platoon advantage (LHB-vs-RHP or RHB-vs-LHP)
+37%
86 yes / 207 no · 42 HRs
HR-suppressing park (factor ≤ 0.95)
−32%
39 yes / 388 no · 66 HRs
Hot streak (L5 avg EV > career baseline)
+30%
190 yes / 234 no · 65 HRs
Vs. fly-ball-prone pitcher (FB% allowed > 40%)
+30%
69 yes / 354 no · 65 HRs
Vs. short-leash starter (avg IP < 5.0)
+25%
167 yes / 252 no · 63 HRs
// 20 more factors — small sample / no significant lift
Vs. high-contact-quality pitcher (avg EV allowed ≥ 89 mph)
−18%
186 yes / 242 no · 66 HRs
≥1 career HR vs this pitcher
−17%
43 yes / 386 no · 67 HRs
Vs. high-xwOBA pitcher (xwOBA allowed > .340)
−16%
79 yes / 348 no · 66 HRs
HR-friendly park (factor ≥ 1.10)
+16%
54 yes / 373 no · 66 HRs
Opposing starter's recent FB velo down ≥1 mph
+16%
53 yes / 300 no · 56 HRs
Rested (2+ days off)
+12%
26 yes / 402 no · 67 HRs
Vs. pull-fly-ball-prone pitcher (>18%)
−10%
292 yes / 131 no · 65 HRs
Batting 3-4-5 in the order
+10%
69 yes / 360 no · 67 HRs
Cold month (Apr / Sep / Oct)
+9%
125 yes / 304 no · 67 HRs
First-pitch temperature > 78°F
+9%
193 yes / 226 no · 64 HRs
No rest day (B2B or doubleheader)
−8%
328 yes / 100 no · 67 HRs
Wind blowing out (≥10 mph, outdoor)
+8%
4 yes / 415 no · 64 HRs
3rd time through order vs starter
+8%
319 yes / 110 no · 67 HRs
Vs. HR-prone pitcher (HR/PA > 3.8%)
−7%
63 yes / 362 no · 66 HRs
Opposing starter coming off >7 days rest
neutral
73 yes / 335 no · 60 HRs
Vs. hittable pitcher (BAA > .260)
neutral
73 yes / 355 no · 66 HRs
≥3 career HRs vs this pitcher
neutral
0 yes / 429 no · 67 HRs
≥2 career HRs vs this pitcher
neutral
0 yes / 429 no · 67 HRs
Vs. barrel-prone pitcher (Barrel% allowed > 9%)
neutral
0 yes / 423 no · 65 HRs
Vs. low-whiff pitcher (whiff% < 22%)
neutral
0 yes / 0 no · 0 HRs
// LIFT = P(HR | factor true) ÷ P(HR | factor false), Bayesian- shrunk with K=30 pseudo-games. Significance requires |lift − 1| ≥ 0.20 AND smaller cohort n ≥ 15. Cohort = top 60 HR hitters, last 2 seasons. Refreshed weekly. Green/red = the factor's effect on tonight's HR chance; gray = not in play tonight.
Last 10 games
Per-game outcomes — most recent first.
Nearest neighbors
Top 10 hitters most similar to Yandy Díaz across 38 features. Comp Lab uses these for small-sample BvP matchups.
Comp data temporarily unavailable.