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Hits OVER 0.5 +5.1% edge model 62% · grade A
Why: strong vs the Sinker (33% usage, .355 xwOBA).
Verdict one call per prop — does the model agree with recent reality? Prop Pick Model Edge L10 Verdict Hits OVER 0.5 62% +5.1% 60% STRONG Home Runs OVER 0.5 5% -2.5% 20% PASS
Our track record settled S/A/B picks on Luis Rengifo, by confidence tier Tier Record Hit rate ROI S 2-4 33% -43.2% A 1-2 33% -41.6% B 2-1 67% +11.7%
Combined 5-7 · n=12 · ROI -29.1% · avg CLV -3.0 pts · beat close 0%
Matchup Luis Rengifo (SHB) vs Nolan McLean RHP favors batter favors pitcher Nolan McLean RHP · season · 132.3 IP · 569 BF
Luis Rengifo hitting
Split H-AB BA SLG ISO HR BB% K% Season 71-299 .237 .328 .090 5 10.5% 14.4% vs RHP 47-183 .257 .350 .093 3 11.2% 11.5%
Pitch-type matchup Nolan McLean's arsenal × how Luis Rengifo hits it · since 2025 · TOP = batter's spot Nolan McLean throws
Pitch Usage Velo Whiff xwOBA TOP Sinker33% 94.8 16% .317 Sweeper 20% 85.0 19% .439 TOP Four-Seam16% 96.0 24% .440 Curveball 14% 80.6 44% .227 Cutter 9% 91.3 23% .363 Changeup 8% 87.4 31% .382 UN 0% 80.6 — —
Luis Rengifo vs each
Pitch Seen Whiff xwOBA EV TOP Sinker239 15% .355 89.4 Sweeper 182 25% .285 83.4 TOP Four-Seam891 14% .360 87.6 Curveball 215 27% .342 87.1 Cutter 334 25% .296 83.0 Changeup 286 20% .328 90.4 UN no sample
xwOBA = expected wOBA from exit velo + launch angle. Green favors the batter, red favors the pitcher.
Hit-rate history per-game results vs the line · green = over · red = under Hits60% Total Bases40% Home Runs20% Singles60% Doubles0% Triples0% Strikeouts50% Walks30% RBIs20% Runs Scored30% Hits + Runs + RBIs60% Stolen Bases0%
60% 6/10 · L10 · avg 1.1
Our model 62% OVER +5.1% edge A
0 @ARI 08-05 3 @ARI 08-06 0 vHOU 08-07 0 vHOU 08-08 2 vHOU 08-09 0 vMIL 08-10 2 vMIL 08-11 1 vMIL 08-12 1 @CLE 08-14 2 @CLE 08-16
L5 80% 4/5 L10 60% 6/10 L20 65% 13/20 2026 57% 57/100 2025 57% 88/154
Recent form per-game over the last 10 Avg PA 4.0 Plate Appearances avg 4.0
3 5 4 3 4 3 5 5 4 4 Total Bases avg 1.7
0 3 0 0 2 0 5 1 1 5 Home Runs avg 0.2
0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 Strikeouts avg 0.9
3 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 3 1
Tonight's lines 2026-08-17 · every line we grade — bet any, not just the headline · BEST = best edge · Move = open→now (CLV once settled) Total Bases
Line Side Grade Model Edge Odds Move Save Track 1.5 — PASS 27% — +240 -0.9 Sign in to save —
Same-game parlay pick 2+ — we price the correlation the book won't Hits OVER 0.5-132 Hits OVER 1.5+400 Hits OVER 2.5+2000 Home Runs OVER 0.5+1200
Price legs
Splits Career n=334 PA · 2026-03-15 → 2026-08-14
Split H-AB BA SLG ISO 2B 3B HR BB K% Season
2026 season
71-299 .237 .328 .090 12 0 5 35 14.4% vs LHP
left-handed pitching
24-116 .207 .293 .086 4 0 2 12 19.0% vs RHP
right-handed pitching
47-183 .257 .350 .093 8 0 3 23 11.5% Last 15 days
recent form
12-45 .267 .333 .067 0 0 1 5 17.8% vs NYM
tonight's opponent (full roster)
7-15 .467 .533 .067 1 0 0 1 13.3%
xStats luck
xwOBA 0.281
wOBA 0.280
delta −0.001 due
n=333 PA
Spray chart 669 balls in play since 2025 1B 2B 3B HR OUTAll vLHP vRHP
Match Nolan McLean's mix Balls in play 669
HR rate 2.1%
Hard-hit (95+) 31%
Avg exit velo 86.7 mph
Ground ball 52%
Line drive 25%
Fly ball 18%
// PLAYER DNA
HR signature matrix hasn't been computed for this player yet. The weekly cron refreshes every Tuesday — check back if this player has joined the top-60 HR cohort.
Last 10 games Per-game outcomes — most recent first.
Date PA H 2B 3B HR BB K Outcomes 2026-08-16 4 2 0 0 1 0 1 2-for-4 · 1 HR · 1 RBI · 1 R · 1 K 2026-08-14 4 1 0 0 0 0 3 1-for-4 · 3 K 2026-08-12 5 1 0 0 0 1 0 1-for-4 · 1 BB 2026-08-11 5 2 0 0 1 0 0 2-for-5 · 1 HR · 4 RBI · 1 R 2026-08-10 3 0 0 0 0 1 1 0-for-2 · 1 BB · 1 K 2026-08-09 4 2 0 0 0 0 0 2-for-4 · 1 R 2026-08-08 3 0 0 0 0 1 0 0-for-2 · 1 BB 2026-08-07 4 0 0 0 0 0 1 0-for-4 · 1 K 2026-08-06 5 3 0 0 0 0 0 3-for-5 2026-08-05 3 0 0 0 0 0 3 0-for-3 · 3 K
Nearest neighbors Top 10 hitters most similar to Luis Rengifo across 38 features. Comp Lab uses these for small-sample BvP matchups.
Comp data temporarily unavailable.