William Contreras

C · RHB · RHP · MIL

// TONIGHT'S MATCHUP

Away @

BAL

Starter

Brandon Young (RHP)

Stadium

Oriole Park at Camden Yards

Model HR%

18.8%

Model Hits%

75.9%

Tonight's top play

Home Runs OVER 0.5+6.0% edgemodel 19% · grade A

Verdict

one call per prop — does the model agree with recent reality?

Prop	Pick	Model	Edge	L10	Verdict
Home Runs	OVER 0.5	19%	+6.0%	40%	LEAN
Hits	OVER 0.5	76%	+4.4%	90%	STRONG

Our track record

settled S/A/B picks on William Contreras, by confidence tier

Tier	Record	Hit rate	ROI
S	9-6	60%	+12.6%
A	9-5	64%	+45.0%
B	7-6	54%	-10.5%

Combined 25-17 · n=42 · ROI +16.2% · avg CLV -0.9 pts · beat close 29%

Matchup

William Contreras (RHB) vs Brandon Young RHPfavors batterfavors pitcher

Brandon Young RHP · season · 146.7 IP · 631 BF

BAA

.254

wOBA

.320

SLG

.411

ISO

.157

WHIP

1.39

HR/9

1.29

BB%

9.3%

18.7%

Whiff%

—

Barrel%

3.1%

HH%

39.8%

FB%

35.9%

HR/FB%

14.1%

William Contreras hitting

Split	H-AB	BA	SLG	ISO	HR	BB%	K%
Season	153-564	.271	.429	.158	20	9.9%	16.1%
vs RHP	111-407	.273	.440	.167	16	9.4%	15.5%

Hit-rate history

per-game results vs the line · green = over · red = under

OVER

0.5

Hits

90%9/10 · L10 · avg 1.1

Our model76% OVER+4.4% edgeB

Recent form

per-game over the last 10Avg PA4.8

Plate Appearancesavg 4.8

Hitsavg 1.1

Singlesavg 0.5

Doublesavg 0.2

Total Basesavg 2.5

Home Runsavg 0.4

Strikeoutsavg 0.9

Walksavg 0.5

Tonight's lines

2026-09-20 · every line we grade — bet any, not just the headline · BEST = best edge · Move = open→now (CLV once settled)

Doubles + Triples

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Save	Track
0.5	—	A	9%	—	+375	-0.4	Sign in to save	—

Hits

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Save	Track
BEST0.5	OVER	B	76%	+4.4%	-251	+2.1	Sign in to save	Sign in

Home Runs

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Save	Track
BEST0.5	OVER	A	19%	+6.0%	+682	+0.4	Sign in to save	Sign in

RBIs

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Save	Track
0.5	—	S	13%	—	+162	+0.8	Sign in to save	—

Singles

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Save	Track
0.5	—	PASS	56%	—	-130	+0.9	Sign in to save	—

Total Bases

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Save	Track
1.5	—	PASS	41%	—	+135	-0.7	Sign in to save	—

Same-game parlay

pick 2+ — we price the correlation the book won't

Splits

Career n=626 PA · 2026-03-20 → 2026-09-18

Season Career

Split	H-AB	BA	SLG	ISO	2B	3B	HR	BB	K%
Season 2026 season	153-564	.271	.429	.158	27	1	20	62	16.1%
vs LHP left-handed pitching	42-157	.268	.401	.134	9	0	4	20	17.8%
vs RHP right-handed pitching	111-407	.273	.440	.167	18	1	16	42	15.5%
Last 15 days recent form	10-39	.256	.615	.359	2	0	4	5	23.1%
vs BAL tonight's opponent (full roster)	11-33	.333	.636	.303	4	0	2	4	30.3%
@ Oriole Park at Camden Yards tonight's stadium	54-216	.250	.500	.250	54	0	0	54	25.0%

xStats luck

xwOBA0.332

wOBA0.333

delta+0.001 hot

n=625 PA

Spray chart

963 balls in play since 2025· wind 6 mph cross-wind

Balls in play963

HR rate4.2%

Hard-hit (95+)48%

Avg exit velo91.1 mph

Ground ball45%

Line drive25%

Fly ball23%

What kind of arm does he crush?

top 3 pitcher traits by |lift|

Vs. high-contact-quality pitcher (avg EV allowed ≥ 89 mph)

+19.3%small sample

n=332 games · 21/157 HR when active

Vs. fastball-heavy pitcher (FB% ≥ 55%)

+0.0%small sample

n=0 games · 0/0 HR when active

Vs. hittable pitcher (BAA > .260)

+0.0%small sample

n=0 games · 0/0 HR when active

// PLAYER DNA

HR signature· refreshed 2026-05-21

// TONIGHT

0 / 2HELPING · IN PLAY

Leaning against

// IN PLAY TONIGHT

−31% HR rate when no rest day (b2b or doubleheader).
−30% HR rate when cold month (apr / sep / oct).

helping tonighthurting tonightnot in play tonight

HR-suppressing park (factor ≤ 0.95)

0.63× HR rate

39 yes / 293 no · 40 HRs

No rest day (B2B or doubleheader)tonight

−31%

240 yes / 91 no · 40 HRs

Rested (2+ days off)

+31%

27 yes / 304 no · 40 HRs

Cold month (Apr / Sep / Oct)tonight

−30%

104 yes / 228 no · 40 HRs

HR-friendly park (factor ≥ 1.10)

+24%

204 yes / 128 no · 40 HRs

// 7 more factors — small sample / no significant lift

Vs. high-contact-quality pitcher (avg EV allowed ≥ 89 mph)

+19%

157 yes / 175 no · 40 HRs

Playing at home

+12%

172 yes / 160 no · 40 HRs

Summer game (Jun-Aug)

neutral

147 yes / 185 no · 40 HRs

Vs. fastball-heavy pitcher (FB% ≥ 55%)

neutral

0 yes / 0 no · 0 HRs

Vs. hittable pitcher (BAA > .260)

neutral

0 yes / 0 no · 0 HRs

Vs. high-xwOBA pitcher (xwOBA allowed > .340)

neutral

0 yes / 0 no · 0 HRs

Vs. low-whiff pitcher (whiff% < 22%)

neutral

0 yes / 0 no · 0 HRs

// LIFT = P(HR | factor true) ÷ P(HR | factor false), Bayesian- shrunk with K=30 pseudo-games. Significance requires |lift − 1| ≥ 0.20 AND smaller cohort n ≥ 15. Cohort = top 60 HR hitters, last 2 seasons. Refreshed weekly. Green/red = the factor's effect on tonight's HR chance; gray = not in play tonight.

Last 10 games

Per-game outcomes — most recent first.

Date	PA	H	2B	HR	BB	K	Outcomes
2026-09-19	4	1	0	0	0	0	1-for-4
2026-09-18	5	1	1	0	1	1	1-for-4 · 1 2B · 1 RBI · 1 R · 1 BB · 1 K
2026-09-16	5	1	0	0	0	1	1-for-5 · 1 K
2026-09-15	5	1	1	0	0	0	1-for-5 · 1 2B · 1 R
2026-09-12	5	1	0	1	2	0	1-for-3 · 1 HR · 3 RBI · 2 R · 2 BB
2026-09-11	6	2	0	1	0	0	2-for-6 · 1 HR · 6 RBI · 2 R
2026-09-09	4	2	0	1	1	1	2-for-3 · 1 HR · 3 RBI · 2 R · 1 BB · 1 K
2026-09-08	5	1	0	0	1	2	1-for-4 · 1 BB · 2 K
2026-09-07	4	0	0	0	0	2	0-for-4 · 2 K
2026-09-05	5	1	0	1	0	2	1-for-5 · 1 HR · 1 RBI · 1 R · 2 K

Nearest neighbors

Top 10 hitters most similar to William Contreras across 38 features. Comp Lab uses these for small-sample BvP matchups.

Comp data temporarily unavailable.