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William Contreras
C · RHB · RHP · MIL
// TONIGHT'S MATCHUP
Tonight's top play
Home Runs OVER 0.5+6.0% edgemodel 19% · grade A
Why: strong vs the Four-Seam (48% usage, .392 xwOBA).
Verdict
one call per prop — does the model agree with recent reality?Our track record
settled S/A/B picks on William Contreras, by confidence tier| Tier | Record | Hit rate | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| S | 9-6 | 60% | +12.6% |
| A | 9-5 | 64% | +45.0% |
| B | 7-6 | 54% | -10.5% |
Combined 25-17 · n=42 · ROI +16.2% · avg CLV -0.9 pts · beat close 29%
Matchup
William Contreras (RHB) vs Andrew Abbott LHPfavors batterfavors pitcherPitch-type matchup
Andrew Abbott's arsenal × how William Contreras hits it · since 2025 · TOP = batter's spotxwOBA = expected wOBA from exit velo + launch angle. Green favors the batter, red favors the pitcher.
Hit-rate history
per-game results vs the line · green = over · red = underRecent form
per-game over the last 10Avg PA4.8Plate Appearancesavg 4.8
Hitsavg 1.1
Singlesavg 0.5
Doublesavg 0.2
Total Basesavg 2.5
Home Runsavg 0.4
Strikeoutsavg 0.9
Walksavg 0.5
Tonight's lines
2026-09-20 · every line we grade — bet any, not just the headline · BEST = best edge · Move = open→now (CLV once settled)Same-game parlay
pick 2+ — we price the correlation the book won'tSplits
Career n=2,651 PA · 2023-03-30 → 2026-09-09
xStats luck
xwOBA0.332
wOBA0.329
delta−0.003 due
n=599 PA
Spray chart
963 balls in play since 2025· wind 7 mph blowing inBalls in play963
HR rate4.2%
Hard-hit (95+)48%
Avg exit velo91.1 mph
Ground ball45%
Line drive25%
Fly ball23%
What kind of arm does he crush?
top 3 pitcher traits by |lift|
+19.3%small sample
n=332 games · 21/157 HR when active
+0.0%small sample
n=0 games · 0/0 HR when active
+0.0%small sample
n=0 games · 0/0 HR when active
// PLAYER DNA
HR signature· refreshed 2026-05-21
// TONIGHT
0 / 2HELPING · IN PLAY
Leaning against
// IN PLAY TONIGHT
- −31% HR rate when no rest day (b2b or doubleheader).
- −30% HR rate when cold month (apr / sep / oct).
helping tonighthurting tonightnot in play tonight
HR-suppressing park (factor ≤ 0.95)
0.63× HR rate
39 yes / 293 no · 40 HRs
No rest day (B2B or doubleheader)tonight
−31%
240 yes / 91 no · 40 HRs
Rested (2+ days off)
+31%
27 yes / 304 no · 40 HRs
Cold month (Apr / Sep / Oct)tonight
−30%
104 yes / 228 no · 40 HRs
HR-friendly park (factor ≥ 1.10)
+24%
204 yes / 128 no · 40 HRs
// 7 more factors — small sample / no significant lift
Vs. high-contact-quality pitcher (avg EV allowed ≥ 89 mph)
+19%
157 yes / 175 no · 40 HRs
Playing at home
+12%
172 yes / 160 no · 40 HRs
Summer game (Jun-Aug)
neutral
147 yes / 185 no · 40 HRs
Vs. fastball-heavy pitcher (FB% ≥ 55%)
neutral
0 yes / 0 no · 0 HRs
Vs. hittable pitcher (BAA > .260)
neutral
0 yes / 0 no · 0 HRs
Vs. high-xwOBA pitcher (xwOBA allowed > .340)
neutral
0 yes / 0 no · 0 HRs
Vs. low-whiff pitcher (whiff% < 22%)
neutral
0 yes / 0 no · 0 HRs
// LIFT = P(HR | factor true) ÷ P(HR | factor false), Bayesian- shrunk with K=30 pseudo-games. Significance requires |lift − 1| ≥ 0.20 AND smaller cohort n ≥ 15. Cohort = top 60 HR hitters, last 2 seasons. Refreshed weekly. Green/red = the factor's effect on tonight's HR chance; gray = not in play tonight.
Last 10 games
Per-game outcomes — most recent first.
Nearest neighbors
Top 10 hitters most similar to William Contreras across 38 features. Comp Lab uses these for small-sample BvP matchups.
Comp data temporarily unavailable.