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Kyle Tucker
RF · LHB · RHP · LAD
// TONIGHT'S MATCHUP
Our track record
settled S/A/B picks on Kyle Tucker, by confidence tier| Tier | Record | Hit rate | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| S | 6-7 | 46% | -13.7% |
| A | 2-8 | 20% | -68.2% |
| B | 1-6 | 14% | -77.2% |
Combined 9-21 · n=30 · ROI -46.7% · avg CLV -3.3 pts · beat close 40%
Matchup
Kyle Tucker (LHB) vs Logan Henderson RHPfavors batterfavors pitcherHit-rate history
per-game results vs the line · green = over · red = underRecent form
per-game over the last 10Avg PA3.9Plate Appearancesavg 3.9
Hitsavg 0.4
Singlesavg 0.2
Doublesavg 0.0
Total Basesavg 0.9
Home Runsavg 0.1
Strikeoutsavg 0.5
Walksavg 0.4
Tonight's lines
2026-08-17 · every line we grade — bet any, not just the headline · BEST = best edge · Move = open→now (CLV once settled)Splits
Career n=495 PA · 2026-03-15 → 2026-08-14
xStats luck
xwOBA0.325
wOBA0.324
delta−0.001 due
n=495 PA
Spray chart
779 balls in play since 2025Balls in play779
HR rate4.4%
Hard-hit (95+)38%
Avg exit velo89.0 mph
Ground ball36%
Line drive26%
Fly ball32%
What kind of arm does he crush?
top 3 pitcher traits by |lift|
+63.3%significant
n=387 games · 14/63 HR when active
-36.6%significant
n=453 games · 40/339 HR when active
-23.7%significant
n=455 games · 25/212 HR when active
// PLAYER DNA
HR signature· refreshed 2026-08-11
// TONIGHT
0 / 2HELPING · IN PLAY
Leaning against
// IN PLAY TONIGHT
- −37% HR rate when vs pull-fly-ball-prone pitcher (>18%).
- −24% HR rate when vs high-contact-quality pitcher (avg ev allowed ≥ 89 mph).
helping tonighthurting tonightnot in play tonight
HR-suppressing park (factor ≤ 0.95)
2.15× HR rate
52 yes / 403 no · 65 HRs
Opposing starter's recent FB velo down ≥1 mph
1.63× HR rate
63 yes / 324 no · 52 HRs
Vs. short-leash starter (avg IP < 5.0)
1.59× HR rate
174 yes / 278 no · 64 HRs
Playing at home
0.58× HR rate
231 yes / 226 no · 65 HRs
Vs. pull-fly-ball-prone pitcher (>18%)tonight
0.63× HR rate
339 yes / 114 no · 63 HRs
Rested (2+ days off)
−28%
20 yes / 436 no · 65 HRs
Vs. high-contact-quality pitcher (avg EV allowed ≥ 89 mph)tonight
−24%
212 yes / 243 no · 64 HRs
// 21 more factors — small sample / no significant lift
First-pitch temperature > 78°F
+18%
130 yes / 308 no · 62 HRs
HR-friendly park (factor ≥ 1.10)
−18%
55 yes / 400 no · 65 HRs
Hot streak (L5 avg EV > career baseline)
+17%
151 yes / 301 no · 64 HRs
Summer game (Jun-Aug)
+15%
207 yes / 250 no · 65 HRs
Platoon advantage (LHB-vs-RHP or RHB-vs-LHP)
+13%
230 yes / 87 no · 41 HRs
Vs. hittable pitcher (BAA > .260)
+12%
89 yes / 366 no · 64 HRs
3rd time through order vs starter
+11%
275 yes / 182 no · 65 HRs
Cold month (Apr / Sep / Oct)
−11%
125 yes / 332 no · 65 HRs
≥2 career HRs vs this pitcher
−10%
3 yes / 454 no · 65 HRs
No rest day (B2B or doubleheader)
+9%
349 yes / 107 no · 65 HRs
≥1 career HR vs this pitcher
−8%
40 yes / 417 no · 65 HRs
Batting 3-4-5 in the order
neutral
247 yes / 210 no · 65 HRs
Vs. high-xwOBA pitcher (xwOBA allowed > .340)
neutral
90 yes / 363 no · 63 HRs
Wind blowing out (≥10 mph, outdoor)
neutral
8 yes / 430 no · 62 HRs
Vs. fastball-heavy pitcher (FB% ≥ 55%)
neutral
248 yes / 188 no · 61 HRs
Opposing starter coming off >7 days rest
neutral
70 yes / 365 no · 61 HRs
Vs. HR-prone pitcher (HR/PA > 3.8%)
neutral
92 yes / 361 no · 63 HRs
Vs. fly-ball-prone pitcher (FB% allowed > 40%)
neutral
78 yes / 375 no · 63 HRs
≥3 career HRs vs this pitcher
neutral
0 yes / 457 no · 65 HRs
Vs. barrel-prone pitcher (Barrel% allowed > 9%)
neutral
0 yes / 453 no · 63 HRs
Vs. low-whiff pitcher (whiff% < 22%)
neutral
0 yes / 0 no · 0 HRs
// LIFT = P(HR | factor true) ÷ P(HR | factor false), Bayesian- shrunk with K=30 pseudo-games. Significance requires |lift − 1| ≥ 0.20 AND smaller cohort n ≥ 15. Cohort = top 60 HR hitters, last 2 seasons. Refreshed weekly. Green/red = the factor's effect on tonight's HR chance; gray = not in play tonight.
Last 10 games
Per-game outcomes — most recent first.
Nearest neighbors
Top 10 hitters most similar to Kyle Tucker across 38 features. Comp Lab uses these for small-sample BvP matchups.
Comp data temporarily unavailable.