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Kyle Tucker
RF · LHB · RHP · LAD
// TONIGHT'S MATCHUP
Our track record
settled S/A/B picks on Kyle Tucker, by confidence tier| Tier | Record | Hit rate | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| S | 4-3 | 57% | +11.0% |
| A | 0-1 | 0% | -100.0% |
| B | 1-6 | 14% | -77.2% |
Combined 5-10 · n=15 · ROI -37.6% · avg CLV -2.3 pts · beat close 38%
Matchup
Kyle Tucker (LHB) vs Michael King RHPfavors batterfavors pitcherPitch-type matchup
Michael King's arsenal × how Kyle Tucker hits it · since 2025 · TOP = batter's spotxwOBA = expected wOBA from exit velo + launch angle. Green favors the batter, red favors the pitcher.
Hit-rate history
per-game results vs the line · green = over · red = underRecent form
per-game over the last 10Avg PA4.0Plate Appearancesavg 4.0
Hitsavg 1.0
Singlesavg 0.8
Doublesavg 0.1
Total Basesavg 1.4
Home Runsavg 0.1
Strikeoutsavg 1.0
Walksavg 0.8
Tonight's lines
2026-07-03 · every line we grade — bet any, not just the headline · BEST = best edge · Move = open→now (CLV once settled)Splits
Career n=2,092 PA · 2023-03-30 → 2026-07-01
xStats luck
xwOBA0.327
wOBA0.318
delta−0.009 due
n=363 PA
Spray chart
679 balls in play since 2025Balls in play679
HR rate4.6%
Hard-hit (95+)40%
Avg exit velo89.3 mph
Ground ball36%
Line drive26%
Fly ball32%
What kind of arm does he crush?
top 3 pitcher traits by |lift|
+57.2%significant
n=359 games · 13/61 HR when active
-34.1%significant
n=419 games · 35/295 HR when active
-23.6%significant
n=422 games · 25/208 HR when active
// PLAYER DNA
HR signature· refreshed 2026-06-30
// TONIGHT
2 / 4HELPING · IN PLAY
Mixed signals tonight
// IN PLAY TONIGHT
- +51% HR rate when vs short-leash starter (avg ip < 5.0).
- −37% HR rate when playing at home.
- −34% HR rate when vs pull-fly-ball-prone pitcher (>18%).
- +24% HR rate when hot streak (l5 avg ev > career baseline).
helping tonighthurting tonightnot in play tonight
HR-suppressing park (factor ≤ 0.95)
2.05× HR rate
46 yes / 376 no · 61 HRs
Opposing starter's recent FB velo down ≥1 mph
1.57× HR rate
61 yes / 298 no · 48 HRs
Vs. short-leash starter (avg IP < 5.0)tonight
1.51× HR rate
174 yes / 245 no · 60 HRs
Playing at hometonight
0.63× HR rate
215 yes / 209 no · 61 HRs
Vs. pull-fly-ball-prone pitcher (>18%)tonight
0.66× HR rate
295 yes / 124 no · 59 HRs
Rested (2+ days off)
−27%
19 yes / 404 no · 61 HRs
Hot streak (L5 avg EV > career baseline)tonight
+24%
130 yes / 289 no · 60 HRs
Vs. high-contact-quality pitcher (avg EV allowed ≥ 89 mph)
−24%
208 yes / 214 no · 60 HRs
First-pitch temperature > 78°F
+23%
105 yes / 300 no · 58 HRs
Vs. hittable pitcher (BAA > .260)
+22%
87 yes / 335 no · 60 HRs
// 18 more factors — small sample / no significant lift
Summer game (Jun-Aug)
+19%
174 yes / 250 no · 61 HRs
3rd time through order vs starter
+14%
263 yes / 161 no · 61 HRs
Cold month (Apr / Sep / Oct)
−13%
125 yes / 299 no · 61 HRs
HR-friendly park (factor ≥ 1.10)
−13%
50 yes / 372 no · 61 HRs
No rest day (B2B or doubleheader)
+11%
323 yes / 100 no · 61 HRs
Opposing starter coming off >7 days rest
+11%
63 yes / 341 no · 57 HRs
Vs. high-xwOBA pitcher (xwOBA allowed > .340)
+9%
85 yes / 335 no · 59 HRs
Platoon advantage (LHB-vs-RHP or RHB-vs-LHP)
+8%
213 yes / 76 no · 37 HRs
Batting 3-4-5 in the order
+8%
241 yes / 183 no · 61 HRs
≥2 career HRs vs this pitcher
−7%
2 yes / 422 no · 61 HRs
≥1 career HR vs this pitcher
neutral
30 yes / 394 no · 61 HRs
Wind blowing out (≥10 mph, outdoor)
neutral
8 yes / 397 no · 58 HRs
Vs. HR-prone pitcher (HR/PA > 3.8%)
neutral
80 yes / 340 no · 59 HRs
Vs. fly-ball-prone pitcher (FB% allowed > 40%)
neutral
72 yes / 347 no · 59 HRs
Vs. fastball-heavy pitcher (FB% ≥ 55%)
neutral
227 yes / 179 no · 57 HRs
Vs. low-whiff pitcher (whiff% < 22%)
neutral
0 yes / 0 no · 0 HRs
Vs. barrel-prone pitcher (Barrel% allowed > 9%)
neutral
0 yes / 419 no · 59 HRs
≥3 career HRs vs this pitcher
neutral
0 yes / 424 no · 61 HRs
// LIFT = P(HR | factor true) ÷ P(HR | factor false), Bayesian- shrunk with K=30 pseudo-games. Significance requires |lift − 1| ≥ 0.20 AND smaller cohort n ≥ 15. Cohort = top 60 HR hitters, last 2 seasons. Refreshed weekly. Green/red = the factor's effect on tonight's HR chance; gray = not in play tonight.
Last 10 games
Per-game outcomes — most recent first.
Nearest neighbors
Top 10 hitters most similar to Kyle Tucker across 38 features. Comp Lab uses these for small-sample BvP matchups.
Comp data temporarily unavailable.