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Kyle Tucker
RF · LHB · RHP · LAD
Our track record
settled S/A/B picks on Kyle Tucker, by confidence tier| Tier | Record | Hit rate | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| S | 9-8 | 53% | +5.3% |
| A | 4-8 | 33% | -44.8% |
| B | 4-7 | 36% | -45.0% |
Combined 17-23 · n=40 · ROI -23.6% · avg CLV -0.1 pts · beat close 40%
Hit-rate history
per-game results vs the line · green = over · red = underRecent form
per-game over the last 10Avg PA3.9Plate Appearancesavg 3.9
Hitsavg 1.2
Singlesavg 0.8
Doublesavg 0.2
Total Basesavg 2.0
Home Runsavg 0.2
Strikeoutsavg 0.3
Walksavg 0.3
Splits
Career n=2,375 PA · 2023-03-30 → 2026-09-27
xStats luck
xwOBA0.325
wOBA0.318
delta−0.007 due
n=646 PA
Spray chart
895 balls in play since 2025Balls in play895
HR rate4.5%
Hard-hit (95+)37%
Avg exit velo88.8 mph
Ground ball36%
Line drive24%
Fly ball33%
What kind of arm does he crush?
top 3 pitcher traits by |lift|
+62.0%significant
n=415 games · 14/64 HR when active
+41.8%significant
n=498 games · 19/96 HR when active
-17.7%small sample
n=496 games · 49/370 HR when active
// PLAYER DNA
HR signature· refreshed 2026-09-29
helping tonighthurting tonightnot in play tonight
HR-suppressing park (factor ≤ 0.95)
2.07× HR rate
58 yes / 439 no · 71 HRs
Opposing starter's recent FB velo down ≥1 mph
1.62× HR rate
64 yes / 351 no · 55 HRs
Vs. short-leash starter (avg IP < 5.0)
1.55× HR rate
200 yes / 293 no · 70 HRs
Vs. hittable pitcher (BAA > .260)
+42%
96 yes / 402 no · 71 HRs
Playing at home
0.59× HR rate
255 yes / 244 no · 71 HRs
Rested (2+ days off)
−28%
20 yes / 478 no · 71 HRs
// 22 more factors — small sample / no significant lift
Vs. pull-fly-ball-prone pitcher (>18%)
−18%
370 yes / 126 no · 70 HRs
First-pitch temperature > 78°F
+18%
163 yes / 317 no · 68 HRs
Platoon advantage (LHB-vs-RHP or RHB-vs-LHP)
+17%
251 yes / 99 no · 45 HRs
Vs. high-contact-quality pitcher (avg EV allowed ≥ 89 mph)
−17%
214 yes / 284 no · 71 HRs
Hot streak (L5 avg EV > career baseline)
+16%
164 yes / 330 no · 70 HRs
3rd time through order vs starter
+16%
289 yes / 210 no · 71 HRs
Vs. HR-prone pitcher (HR/PA > 3.8%)
−13%
90 yes / 406 no · 70 HRs
≥1 career HR vs this pitcher
−11%
42 yes / 457 no · 71 HRs
≥2 career HRs vs this pitcher
−10%
3 yes / 496 no · 71 HRs
Batting 3-4-5 in the order
+9%
262 yes / 237 no · 71 HRs
No rest day (B2B or doubleheader)
+9%
384 yes / 114 no · 71 HRs
Vs. fly-ball-prone pitcher (FB% allowed > 40%)
−9%
86 yes / 410 no · 70 HRs
HR-friendly park (factor ≥ 1.10)
−8%
62 yes / 435 no · 71 HRs
Opposing starter coming off >7 days rest
−6%
76 yes / 400 no · 67 HRs
Vs. fastball-heavy pitcher (FB% ≥ 55%)
neutral
262 yes / 208 no · 65 HRs
Cold month (Apr / Sep / Oct)
neutral
150 yes / 349 no · 71 HRs
Vs. high-xwOBA pitcher (xwOBA allowed > .340)
neutral
103 yes / 393 no · 70 HRs
Wind blowing out (≥10 mph, outdoor)
neutral
8 yes / 472 no · 68 HRs
Summer game (Jun-Aug)
neutral
224 yes / 275 no · 71 HRs
Vs. barrel-prone pitcher (Barrel% allowed > 9%)
neutral
0 yes / 496 no · 70 HRs
Vs. low-whiff pitcher (whiff% < 22%)
neutral
0 yes / 0 no · 0 HRs
≥3 career HRs vs this pitcher
neutral
0 yes / 499 no · 71 HRs
// LIFT = P(HR | factor true) ÷ P(HR | factor false), Bayesian- shrunk with K=30 pseudo-games. Significance requires |lift − 1| ≥ 0.20 AND smaller cohort n ≥ 15. Cohort = top 60 HR hitters, last 2 seasons. Refreshed weekly. Green/red = the factor's effect on tonight's HR chance; gray = not in play tonight.
Last 10 games
Per-game outcomes — most recent first.
Nearest neighbors
Top 10 hitters most similar to Kyle Tucker across 38 features. Comp Lab uses these for small-sample BvP matchups.
Comp data temporarily unavailable.