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Cal Raleigh
C · SHB · RHP · SEA
Our track record
settled S/A/B picks on Cal Raleigh, by confidence tier| Tier | Record | Hit rate | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| S | 6-3 | 67% | +99.9% |
| A | 3-4 | 43% | -33.6% |
| B | 3-1 | 75% | +52.3% |
Combined 12-8 · n=20 · ROI +43.6% · avg CLV +0.2 pts · beat close 60%
Hit-rate history
per-game results vs the line · green = over · red = underRecent form
per-game over the last 10Avg PA3.9Plate Appearancesavg 3.9
Hitsavg 0.4
Singlesavg 0.2
Doublesavg 0.1
Total Basesavg 0.8
Home Runsavg 0.1
Strikeoutsavg 1.1
Walksavg 0.5
Splits
Career n=374 PA · 2026-03-19 → 2026-08-08
xStats luck
xwOBA0.325
wOBA0.323
delta−0.002 due
n=372 PA
Spray chart
661 balls in play since 2025Balls in play661
HR rate12.1%
Hard-hit (95+)43%
Avg exit velo90.0 mph
Ground ball26%
Line drive19%
Fly ball42%
What kind of arm does he crush?
top 3 pitcher traits by |lift|
+33.0%significant
n=418 games · 75/299 HR when active
+26.9%significant
n=361 games · 19/65 HR when active
+23.8%small sample
n=425 games · 5/13 HR when active
// PLAYER DNA
HR signature· refreshed 2026-08-04
helping tonighthurting tonightnot in play tonight
Vs. pull-fly-ball-prone pitcher (>18%)
+33%
299 yes / 119 no · 96 HRs
Rested (2+ days off)
−28%
22 yes / 402 no · 96 HRs
Opposing starter's recent FB velo down ≥1 mph
+27%
65 yes / 296 no · 82 HRs
Cold month (Apr / Sep / Oct)
+26%
138 yes / 287 no · 96 HRs
// 24 more factors — small sample / no significant lift
≥2 career HRs vs this pitcher
+24%
13 yes / 412 no · 96 HRs
≥3 career HRs vs this pitcher
+23%
2 yes / 423 no · 96 HRs
Vs. fastball-heavy pitcher (FB% ≥ 55%)
+17%
213 yes / 202 no · 95 HRs
Vs. fly-ball-prone pitcher (FB% allowed > 40%)
−16%
74 yes / 344 no · 96 HRs
HR-suppressing park (factor ≤ 0.95)
−14%
256 yes / 168 no · 96 HRs
Vs. barrel-prone pitcher (Barrel% allowed > 9%)
+12%
1 yes / 417 no · 96 HRs
Vs. high-contact-quality pitcher (avg EV allowed ≥ 89 mph)
+11%
199 yes / 224 no · 96 HRs
Vs. hittable pitcher (BAA > .260)
−10%
93 yes / 330 no · 96 HRs
3rd time through order vs starter
−9%
242 yes / 183 no · 96 HRs
Vs. HR-prone pitcher (HR/PA > 3.8%)
−9%
87 yes / 335 no · 96 HRs
≥1 career HR vs this pitcher
+6%
62 yes / 363 no · 96 HRs
Vs. high-xwOBA pitcher (xwOBA allowed > .340)
+6%
83 yes / 339 no · 96 HRs
Playing at home
−6%
215 yes / 210 no · 96 HRs
Batting 3-4-5 in the order
+5%
233 yes / 192 no · 96 HRs
HR-friendly park (factor ≥ 1.10)
neutral
42 yes / 382 no · 96 HRs
No rest day (B2B or doubleheader)
neutral
324 yes / 100 no · 96 HRs
Vs. short-leash starter (avg IP < 5.0)
neutral
168 yes / 247 no · 95 HRs
Opposing starter coming off >7 days rest
neutral
59 yes / 337 no · 89 HRs
Wind blowing out (≥10 mph, outdoor)
neutral
5 yes / 400 no · 90 HRs
Hot streak (L5 avg EV > career baseline)
neutral
185 yes / 234 no · 96 HRs
Summer game (Jun-Aug)
neutral
185 yes / 240 no · 96 HRs
First-pitch temperature > 78°F
neutral
67 yes / 338 no · 90 HRs
Vs. low-whiff pitcher (whiff% < 22%)
neutral
0 yes / 0 no · 0 HRs
Platoon advantage (LHB-vs-RHP or RHB-vs-LHP)
neutral
0 yes / 0 no · 0 HRs
// LIFT = P(HR | factor true) ÷ P(HR | factor false), Bayesian- shrunk with K=30 pseudo-games. Significance requires |lift − 1| ≥ 0.20 AND smaller cohort n ≥ 15. Cohort = top 60 HR hitters, last 2 seasons. Refreshed weekly. Green/red = the factor's effect on tonight's HR chance; gray = not in play tonight.
Last 10 games
Per-game outcomes — most recent first.
Nearest neighbors
Top 10 hitters most similar to Cal Raleigh across 38 features. Comp Lab uses these for small-sample BvP matchups.
Comp data temporarily unavailable.