← BACK TO SLATE
Cal Raleigh
C · SHB · RHP · SEA
// TONIGHT'S MATCHUP
Our track record
settled S/A/B picks on Cal Raleigh, by confidence tier| Tier | Record | Hit rate | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| S | 8-7 | 53% | +20.2% |
| A | 5-6 | 45% | -14.1% |
| B | 10-5 | 67% | +61.3% |
Combined 23-18 · n=41 · ROI +26.0% · avg CLV -1.4 pts · beat close 29%
Matchup
Cal Raleigh (SHB) vs Grayson Rodriguez RHPfavors batterfavors pitcherPitch-type matchup
Grayson Rodriguez's arsenal × how Cal Raleigh hits it · since 2025 · TOP = batter's spotxwOBA = expected wOBA from exit velo + launch angle. Green favors the batter, red favors the pitcher.
Hit-rate history
per-game results vs the line · green = over · red = underRecent form
per-game over the last 10Avg PA4.5Plate Appearancesavg 4.5
Hitsavg 0.6
Singlesavg 0.2
Doublesavg 0.2
Total Basesavg 1.4
Home Runsavg 0.2
Strikeoutsavg 1.6
Walksavg 0.6
Tonight's lines
2026-09-24 · every line we grade — bet any, not just the headline · BEST = best edge · Move = open→now (CLV once settled)Splits
Career n=2,541 PA · 2023-03-30 → 2026-09-22
xStats luck
xwOBA0.310
wOBA0.314
delta+0.004 hot
n=528 PA
Spray chart
746 balls in play since 2025· wind 3 mph blowing inBalls in play746
HR rate12.2%
Hard-hit (95+)45%
Avg exit velo90.5 mph
Ground ball26%
Line drive19%
Fly ball42%
What kind of arm does he crush?
top 3 pitcher traits by |lift|
+30.3%significant
n=394 games · 20/66 HR when active
+22.6%significant
n=452 games · 59/233 HR when active
+20.7%small sample
n=466 games · 5/14 HR when active
// PLAYER DNA
HR signature· refreshed 2026-09-22
// TONIGHT
1 / 1HELPING · IN PLAY
Leaning favorable
// IN PLAY TONIGHT
- +20% HR rate when cold month (apr / sep / oct).
helping tonighthurting tonightnot in play tonight
Opposing starter's recent FB velo down ≥1 mph
+30%
66 yes / 328 no · 90 HRs
Rested (2+ days off)
−27%
22 yes / 443 no · 105 HRs
Vs. fastball-heavy pitcher (FB% ≥ 55%)
+23%
233 yes / 219 no · 103 HRs
Cold month (Apr / Sep / Oct)tonight
+20%
155 yes / 311 no · 105 HRs
// 24 more factors — small sample / no significant lift
≥2 career HRs vs this pitcher
+21%
14 yes / 452 no · 105 HRs
≥3 career HRs vs this pitcher
+19%
3 yes / 463 no · 105 HRs
Vs. fly-ball-prone pitcher (FB% allowed > 40%)
−17%
81 yes / 379 no · 105 HRs
HR-suppressing park (factor ≤ 0.95)
−15%
277 yes / 188 no · 105 HRs
Vs. HR-prone pitcher (HR/PA > 3.8%)
−13%
92 yes / 371 no · 105 HRs
Vs. high-xwOBA pitcher (xwOBA allowed > .340)
−13%
82 yes / 381 no · 105 HRs
Vs. barrel-prone pitcher (Barrel% allowed > 9%)
+12%
1 yes / 459 no · 105 HRs
No rest day (B2B or doubleheader)
+11%
357 yes / 108 no · 105 HRs
Vs. high-contact-quality pitcher (avg EV allowed ≥ 89 mph)
+11%
203 yes / 261 no · 105 HRs
≥1 career HR vs this pitcher
+11%
67 yes / 399 no · 105 HRs
Vs. short-leash starter (avg IP < 5.0)
−10%
186 yes / 269 no · 103 HRs
Vs. pull-fly-ball-prone pitcher (>18%)
+8%
342 yes / 118 no · 105 HRs
Batting 3-4-5 in the order
+7%
258 yes / 208 no · 105 HRs
HR-friendly park (factor ≥ 1.10)
−6%
53 yes / 412 no · 105 HRs
Vs. hittable pitcher (BAA > .260)
−6%
103 yes / 361 no · 105 HRs
Playing at home
neutral
233 yes / 233 no · 105 HRs
Hot streak (L5 avg EV > career baseline)
neutral
219 yes / 241 no · 105 HRs
Summer game (Jun-Aug)
neutral
209 yes / 257 no · 105 HRs
First-pitch temperature > 78°F
neutral
79 yes / 367 no · 99 HRs
Wind blowing out (≥10 mph, outdoor)
neutral
5 yes / 441 no · 99 HRs
3rd time through order vs starter
neutral
260 yes / 206 no · 105 HRs
Opposing starter coming off >7 days rest
neutral
66 yes / 372 no · 99 HRs
Vs. low-whiff pitcher (whiff% < 22%)
neutral
0 yes / 0 no · 0 HRs
Platoon advantage (LHB-vs-RHP or RHB-vs-LHP)
neutral
0 yes / 0 no · 0 HRs
// LIFT = P(HR | factor true) ÷ P(HR | factor false), Bayesian- shrunk with K=30 pseudo-games. Significance requires |lift − 1| ≥ 0.20 AND smaller cohort n ≥ 15. Cohort = top 60 HR hitters, last 2 seasons. Refreshed weekly. Green/red = the factor's effect on tonight's HR chance; gray = not in play tonight.
Last 10 games
Per-game outcomes — most recent first.
Nearest neighbors
Top 10 hitters most similar to Cal Raleigh across 38 features. Comp Lab uses these for small-sample BvP matchups.
Comp data temporarily unavailable.