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Trent Grisham
CF · LHB · LHP · NYY
// TONIGHT'S MATCHUP
Our track record
settled S/A/B picks on Trent Grisham, by confidence tier| Tier | Record | Hit rate | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| S | 15-11 | 58% | +9.5% |
| A | 3-4 | 43% | -19.0% |
| B | 5-6 | 45% | +3.3% |
Combined 23-21 · n=44 · ROI +3.4% · avg CLV -0.2 pts · beat close 38%
Matchup
Trent Grisham (LHB) vs Zebby Matthews RHPfavors batterfavors pitcherPitch-type matchup
Zebby Matthews's arsenal × how Trent Grisham hits it · since 2025 · TOP = batter's spotxwOBA = expected wOBA from exit velo + launch angle. Green favors the batter, red favors the pitcher.
Hit-rate history
per-game results vs the line · green = over · red = underRecent form
per-game over the last 10Avg PA3.6Plate Appearancesavg 3.6
Hitsavg 0.3
Singlesavg 0.3
Doublesavg 0.0
Total Basesavg 0.3
Home Runsavg 0.0
Strikeoutsavg 0.9
Walksavg 0.4
Tonight's lines
2026-09-16 · every line we grade — bet any, not just the headline · BEST = best edge · Move = open→now (CLV once settled)Splits
Career n=504 PA · 2026-03-15 → 2026-09-04
xStats luck
xwOBA0.327
wOBA0.307
delta−0.020 due
n=502 PA
Spray chart
727 balls in play since 2025· wind 1 mph cross-windBalls in play727
HR rate7.4%
Hard-hit (95+)45%
Avg exit velo90.8 mph
Ground ball38%
Line drive22%
Fly ball31%
What kind of arm does he crush?
top 3 pitcher traits by |lift|
+82.8%significant
n=441 games · 37/202 HR when active
-38.5%significant
n=438 games · 4/61 HR when active
+40.3%significant
n=439 games · 18/99 HR when active
// PLAYER DNA
HR signature· refreshed 2026-08-25
// TONIGHT
2 / 3HELPING · IN PLAY
Slight favorable lean
// IN PLAY TONIGHT
- −39% HR rate when vs fly-ball-prone pitcher (fb% allowed > 40%).
- +31% HR rate when cold month (apr / sep / oct).
- +24% HR rate when platoon advantage (lhb-vs-rhp or rhb-vs-lhp).
helping tonighthurting tonightnot in play tonight
First-pitch temperature > 78°F
1.92× HR rate
84 yes / 337 no · 59 HRs
Vs. high-contact-quality pitcher (avg EV allowed ≥ 89 mph)
1.83× HR rate
202 yes / 239 no · 59 HRs
Vs. high-xwOBA pitcher (xwOBA allowed > .340)
+40%
99 yes / 340 no · 59 HRs
Vs. fly-ball-prone pitcher (FB% allowed > 40%)tonight
0.61× HR rate
61 yes / 377 no · 58 HRs
Cold month (Apr / Sep / Oct)tonight
+31%
120 yes / 322 no · 59 HRs
3rd time through order vs starter
+26%
203 yes / 239 no · 59 HRs
Summer game (Jun-Aug)
+24%
198 yes / 244 no · 59 HRs
Platoon advantage (LHB-vs-RHP or RHB-vs-LHP)tonight
+24%
225 yes / 75 no · 40 HRs
// 20 more factors — small sample / no significant lift
Wind blowing out (≥10 mph, outdoor)
−27%
10 yes / 411 no · 59 HRs
≥3 career HRs vs this pitcher
+23%
1 yes / 441 no · 59 HRs
Vs. short-leash starter (avg IP < 5.0)
−19%
157 yes / 279 no · 59 HRs
Hot streak (L5 avg EV > career baseline)
+19%
235 yes / 202 no · 58 HRs
Playing at home
−17%
218 yes / 224 no · 59 HRs
≥2 career HRs vs this pitcher
+17%
9 yes / 433 no · 59 HRs
Vs. HR-prone pitcher (HR/PA > 3.8%)
+16%
83 yes / 356 no · 59 HRs
Opposing starter's recent FB velo down ≥1 mph
+16%
65 yes / 316 no · 55 HRs
Vs. pull-fly-ball-prone pitcher (>18%)
+11%
322 yes / 116 no · 58 HRs
Rested (2+ days off)
+10%
18 yes / 423 no · 59 HRs
No rest day (B2B or doubleheader)
+9%
320 yes / 121 no · 59 HRs
≥1 career HR vs this pitcher
+8%
40 yes / 402 no · 59 HRs
Opposing starter coming off >7 days rest
−8%
63 yes / 345 no · 57 HRs
Batting 3-4-5 in the order
−7%
26 yes / 416 no · 59 HRs
Vs. hittable pitcher (BAA > .260)
−6%
88 yes / 353 no · 59 HRs
HR-suppressing park (factor ≤ 0.95)
−6%
49 yes / 393 no · 59 HRs
Vs. fastball-heavy pitcher (FB% ≥ 55%)
neutral
246 yes / 182 no · 58 HRs
HR-friendly park (factor ≥ 1.10)
neutral
190 yes / 252 no · 59 HRs
Vs. barrel-prone pitcher (Barrel% allowed > 9%)
neutral
0 yes / 438 no · 58 HRs
Vs. low-whiff pitcher (whiff% < 22%)
neutral
0 yes / 0 no · 0 HRs
// LIFT = P(HR | factor true) ÷ P(HR | factor false), Bayesian- shrunk with K=30 pseudo-games. Significance requires |lift − 1| ≥ 0.20 AND smaller cohort n ≥ 15. Cohort = top 60 HR hitters, last 2 seasons. Refreshed weekly. Green/red = the factor's effect on tonight's HR chance; gray = not in play tonight.
Last 10 games
Per-game outcomes — most recent first.
Nearest neighbors
Top 10 hitters most similar to Trent Grisham across 38 features. Comp Lab uses these for small-sample BvP matchups.
Comp data temporarily unavailable.