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Trent Grisham
CF · LHB · LHP · NYY
// TONIGHT'S MATCHUP
Tonight's top play
Hits OVER 0.5+6.0% edgemodel 66% · grade A
Why: Vs. high-contact-quality pitcher (avg EV allowed ≥ 89 mph): +47.8% lift over 173 games · strong vs the Four-Seam (47% usage, .420 xwOBA).
Verdict
one call per prop — does the model agree with recent reality?Our track record
settled S/A/B picks on Trent Grisham, by confidence tier| Tier | Record | Hit rate | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| S | 8-4 | 67% | +39.5% |
| A | 1-9 | 10% | -83.4% |
| B | 3-4 | 43% | +6.9% |
Combined 12-17 · n=29 · ROI -10.7% · avg CLV +0.2 pts · beat close 48%
Matchup
Trent Grisham (LHB) vs Shota Imanaga LHPfavors batterfavors pitcherPitch-type matchup
Shota Imanaga's arsenal × how Trent Grisham hits it · since 2025 · TOP = batter's spotxwOBA = expected wOBA from exit velo + launch angle. Green favors the batter, red favors the pitcher.
Hit-rate history
per-game results vs the line · green = over · red = underRecent form
per-game over the last 10Avg PA3.6Plate Appearancesavg 3.6
Hitsavg 0.3
Singlesavg 0.3
Doublesavg 0.0
Total Basesavg 0.3
Home Runsavg 0.0
Strikeoutsavg 0.5
Walksavg 0.4
Tonight's lines
2026-08-02 · every line we grade — bet any, not just the headline · BEST = best edge · Move = open→now (CLV once settled)Same-game parlay
pick 2+ — we price the correlation the book won'tSplits
Career n=1,792 PA · 2023-03-30 → 2026-07-29
xStats luck
xwOBA0.346
wOBA0.319
delta−0.027 due
n=368 PA
Spray chart
648 balls in play since 2025Balls in play648
HR rate7.3%
Hard-hit (95+)45%
Avg exit velo91.0 mph
Ground ball39%
Line drive21%
Fly ball31%
What kind of arm does he crush?
top 3 pitcher traits by |lift|
+47.8%significant
n=336 games · 27/173 HR when active
+0.0%small sample
n=0 games · 0/0 HR when active
+0.0%small sample
n=0 games · 0/0 HR when active
// PLAYER DNA
HR signature· refreshed 2026-05-21
// TONIGHT
1 / 1HELPING · IN PLAY
Leaning favorable
// IN PLAY TONIGHT
- +48% HR rate when vs high-contact-quality pitcher (avg ev allowed ≥ 89 mph).
helping tonighthurting tonightnot in play tonight
Cold month (Apr / Sep / Oct)
1.50× HR rate
96 yes / 241 no · 43 HRs
Vs. high-contact-quality pitcher (avg EV allowed ≥ 89 mph)tonight
+48%
173 yes / 163 no · 43 HRs
Playing at home
0.63× HR rate
170 yes / 167 no · 43 HRs
// 9 more factors — small sample / no significant lift
HR-suppressing park (factor ≤ 0.95)
+19%
37 yes / 300 no · 43 HRs
Summer game (Jun-Aug)
+13%
145 yes / 192 no · 43 HRs
No rest day (B2B or doubleheader)
+9%
235 yes / 101 no · 43 HRs
HR-friendly park (factor ≥ 1.10)
−6%
131 yes / 206 no · 43 HRs
Rested (2+ days off)
neutral
16 yes / 320 no · 43 HRs
Vs. fastball-heavy pitcher (FB% ≥ 55%)
neutral
0 yes / 0 no · 0 HRs
Vs. hittable pitcher (BAA > .260)
neutral
0 yes / 0 no · 0 HRs
Vs. high-xwOBA pitcher (xwOBA allowed > .340)
neutral
0 yes / 0 no · 0 HRs
Vs. low-whiff pitcher (whiff% < 22%)
neutral
0 yes / 0 no · 0 HRs
// LIFT = P(HR | factor true) ÷ P(HR | factor false), Bayesian- shrunk with K=30 pseudo-games. Significance requires |lift − 1| ≥ 0.20 AND smaller cohort n ≥ 15. Cohort = top 60 HR hitters, last 2 seasons. Refreshed weekly. Green/red = the factor's effect on tonight's HR chance; gray = not in play tonight.
Last 10 games
Per-game outcomes — most recent first.
Nearest neighbors
Top 10 hitters most similar to Trent Grisham across 38 features. Comp Lab uses these for small-sample BvP matchups.
Comp data temporarily unavailable.