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Ian Happ
LF · SHB · RHP · CHC
// TONIGHT'S MATCHUP
Our track record
settled S/A/B picks on Ian Happ, by confidence tier| Tier | Record | Hit rate | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| S | 6-5 | 55% | -0.1% |
| A | 5-4 | 56% | +36.0% |
| B | 1-12 | 8% | -86.0% |
Combined 12-21 · n=33 · ROI -24.1% · avg CLV +1.2 pts · beat close 55%
Matchup
Ian Happ (SHB) vs Tarik Skubal favors batterfavors pitcherPitch-type matchup
Tarik Skubal's arsenal × how Ian Happ hits it · since 2025 · TOP = batter's spotxwOBA = expected wOBA from exit velo + launch angle. Green favors the batter, red favors the pitcher.
Hit-rate history
per-game results vs the line · green = over · red = underRecent form
per-game over the last 10Avg PA4.4Plate Appearancesavg 4.4
Hitsavg 0.9
Singlesavg 0.5
Doublesavg 0.4
Total Basesavg 1.3
Home Runsavg 0.0
Strikeoutsavg 1.4
Walksavg 0.5
Tonight's lines
2026-08-04 · every line we grade — bet any, not just the headline · BEST = best edge · Move = open→now (CLV once settled)Splits
Career n=481 PA · 2026-03-15 → 2026-08-01
xStats luck
xwOBA0.332
wOBA0.338
delta+0.006 hot
n=481 PA
Spray chart
703 balls in play since 2025Balls in play703
HR rate6.3%
Hard-hit (95+)41%
Avg exit velo89.5 mph
Ground ball37%
Line drive24%
Fly ball32%
What kind of arm does he crush?
top 3 pitcher traits by |lift|
+78.0%significant
n=426 games · 43/246 HR when active
-35.0%significant
n=439 games · 5/64 HR when active
-29.8%significant
n=440 games · 11/111 HR when active
// PLAYER DNA
HR signature· refreshed 2026-08-04
// TONIGHT
0 / 0HELPING · IN PLAY
No DNA factors in play tonight
helping tonighthurting tonightnot in play tonight
Vs. fastball-heavy pitcher (FB% ≥ 55%)
1.75× HR rate
252 yes / 181 no · 59 HRs
Batting 3-4-5 in the order
+30%
296 yes / 152 no · 62 HRs
Wind blowing out (≥10 mph, outdoor)
−25%
37 yes / 392 no · 59 HRs
Hot streak (L5 avg EV > career baseline)
−25%
209 yes / 233 no · 61 HRs
Vs. high-contact-quality pitcher (avg EV allowed ≥ 89 mph)
−24%
200 yes / 247 no · 62 HRs
Vs. short-leash starter (avg IP < 5.0)
−23%
176 yes / 266 no · 61 HRs
Vs. hittable pitcher (BAA > .260)
−22%
110 yes / 337 no · 62 HRs
Vs. fly-ball-prone pitcher (FB% allowed > 40%)
−21%
68 yes / 378 no · 62 HRs
Vs. high-xwOBA pitcher (xwOBA allowed > .340)
−21%
109 yes / 337 no · 62 HRs
Opposing starter coming off >7 days rest
+20%
70 yes / 357 no · 60 HRs
// 18 more factors — small sample / no significant lift
≥2 career HRs vs this pitcher
+34%
4 yes / 444 no · 62 HRs
No rest day (B2B or doubleheader)
−19%
353 yes / 94 no · 62 HRs
Vs. pull-fly-ball-prone pitcher (>18%)
−17%
323 yes / 123 no · 62 HRs
3rd time through order vs starter
+17%
278 yes / 170 no · 62 HRs
HR-suppressing park (factor ≤ 0.95)
−16%
47 yes / 401 no · 62 HRs
First-pitch temperature > 78°F
−12%
76 yes / 353 no · 59 HRs
HR-friendly park (factor ≥ 1.10)
+11%
64 yes / 384 no · 62 HRs
Vs. HR-prone pitcher (HR/PA > 3.8%)
−7%
93 yes / 353 no · 62 HRs
Rested (2+ days off)
−6%
17 yes / 430 no · 62 HRs
Opposing starter's recent FB velo down ≥1 mph
+5%
67 yes / 323 no · 55 HRs
Playing at home
+5%
232 yes / 216 no · 62 HRs
≥3 career HRs vs this pitcher
neutral
1 yes / 447 no · 62 HRs
Vs. barrel-prone pitcher (Barrel% allowed > 9%)
neutral
1 yes / 445 no · 62 HRs
Cold month (Apr / Sep / Oct)
neutral
134 yes / 314 no · 62 HRs
Summer game (Jun-Aug)
neutral
203 yes / 245 no · 62 HRs
≥1 career HR vs this pitcher
neutral
36 yes / 412 no · 62 HRs
Vs. low-whiff pitcher (whiff% < 22%)
neutral
0 yes / 0 no · 0 HRs
Platoon advantage (LHB-vs-RHP or RHB-vs-LHP)
neutral
0 yes / 0 no · 0 HRs
// LIFT = P(HR | factor true) ÷ P(HR | factor false), Bayesian- shrunk with K=30 pseudo-games. Significance requires |lift − 1| ≥ 0.20 AND smaller cohort n ≥ 15. Cohort = top 60 HR hitters, last 2 seasons. Refreshed weekly. Green/red = the factor's effect on tonight's HR chance; gray = not in play tonight.
Last 10 games
Per-game outcomes — most recent first.
Nearest neighbors
Top 10 hitters most similar to Ian Happ across 38 features. Comp Lab uses these for small-sample BvP matchups.
Comp data temporarily unavailable.