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Ian Happ
LF · SHB · RHP · CHC
// TONIGHT'S MATCHUP
Our track record
settled S/A/B picks on Ian Happ, by confidence tier| Tier | Record | Hit rate | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| S | 12-6 | 67% | +21.3% |
| A | 7-10 | 41% | +1.3% |
| B | 4-17 | 19% | -26.0% |
Combined 23-33 · n=56 · ROI -2.5% · avg CLV +0.4 pts · beat close 53%
Matchup
Ian Happ (SHB) vs Chase Burns RHPfavors batterfavors pitcherPitch-type matchup
Chase Burns's arsenal × how Ian Happ hits it · since 2025 · TOP = batter's spotxwOBA = expected wOBA from exit velo + launch angle. Green favors the batter, red favors the pitcher.
Hit-rate history
per-game results vs the line · green = over · red = underRecent form
per-game over the last 10Avg PA3.5Plate Appearancesavg 3.5
Hitsavg 0.5
Singlesavg 0.4
Doublesavg 0.1
Total Basesavg 0.6
Home Runsavg 0.0
Strikeoutsavg 0.9
Walksavg 0.9
Tonight's lines
2026-09-15 · every line we grade — bet any, not just the headline · BEST = best edge · Move = open→now (CLV once settled)Splits
Career n=621 PA · 2026-03-15 → 2026-09-16
xStats luck
xwOBA0.311
wOBA0.321
delta+0.010 hot
n=621 PA
Spray chart
785 balls in play since 2025· wind 4 mph blowing outBalls in play785
HR rate6.2%
Hard-hit (95+)41%
Avg exit velo89.2 mph
Ground ball38%
Line drive23%
Fly ball31%
What kind of arm does he crush?
top 3 pitcher traits by |lift|
+58.3%significant
n=467 games · 45/272 HR when active
+52.6%small sample
n=484 games · 3/5 HR when active
-32.7%significant
n=482 games · 6/72 HR when active
// PLAYER DNA
HR signature· refreshed 2026-09-15
// TONIGHT
0 / 1HELPING · IN PLAY
Leaning against
// IN PLAY TONIGHT
- −28% HR rate when hot streak (l5 avg ev > career baseline).
helping tonighthurting tonightnot in play tonight
Vs. fastball-heavy pitcher (FB% ≥ 55%)
1.58× HR rate
272 yes / 195 no · 64 HRs
Batting 3-4-5 in the order
+43%
319 yes / 165 no · 67 HRs
Vs. fly-ball-prone pitcher (FB% allowed > 40%)
−33%
72 yes / 410 no · 67 HRs
3rd time through order vs starter
+29%
293 yes / 191 no · 67 HRs
Hot streak (L5 avg EV > career baseline)tonight
−28%
217 yes / 261 no · 66 HRs
Vs. short-leash starter (avg IP < 5.0)
−26%
197 yes / 280 no · 66 HRs
Wind blowing out (≥10 mph, outdoor)
−25%
37 yes / 428 no · 64 HRs
Vs. hittable pitcher (BAA > .260)
−20%
117 yes / 366 no · 67 HRs
// 20 more factors — small sample / no significant lift
≥2 career HRs vs this pitcher
1.53× HR rate
5 yes / 479 no · 67 HRs
No rest day (B2B or doubleheader)
−19%
383 yes / 100 no · 67 HRs
Vs. high-xwOBA pitcher (xwOBA allowed > .340)
−14%
116 yes / 366 no · 67 HRs
Vs. pull-fly-ball-prone pitcher (>18%)
−14%
362 yes / 120 no · 67 HRs
Opposing starter coming off >7 days rest
+14%
74 yes / 387 no · 65 HRs
Vs. HR-prone pitcher (HR/PA > 3.8%)
+10%
98 yes / 384 no · 67 HRs
≥1 career HR vs this pitcher
+9%
38 yes / 446 no · 67 HRs
First-pitch temperature > 78°F
−9%
96 yes / 369 no · 64 HRs
Vs. high-contact-quality pitcher (avg EV allowed ≥ 89 mph)
−9%
207 yes / 276 no · 67 HRs
Playing at home
−9%
251 yes / 233 no · 67 HRs
Summer game (Jun-Aug)
+8%
228 yes / 256 no · 67 HRs
HR-friendly park (factor ≥ 1.10)
+7%
67 yes / 417 no · 67 HRs
Cold month (Apr / Sep / Oct)
−6%
145 yes / 339 no · 67 HRs
Rested (2+ days off)
−6%
17 yes / 466 no · 67 HRs
Vs. barrel-prone pitcher (Barrel% allowed > 9%)
neutral
1 yes / 481 no · 67 HRs
≥3 career HRs vs this pitcher
neutral
1 yes / 483 no · 67 HRs
HR-suppressing park (factor ≤ 0.95)
neutral
52 yes / 432 no · 67 HRs
Opposing starter's recent FB velo down ≥1 mph
neutral
71 yes / 350 no · 59 HRs
Vs. low-whiff pitcher (whiff% < 22%)
neutral
0 yes / 0 no · 0 HRs
Platoon advantage (LHB-vs-RHP or RHB-vs-LHP)
neutral
0 yes / 0 no · 0 HRs
// LIFT = P(HR | factor true) ÷ P(HR | factor false), Bayesian- shrunk with K=30 pseudo-games. Significance requires |lift − 1| ≥ 0.20 AND smaller cohort n ≥ 15. Cohort = top 60 HR hitters, last 2 seasons. Refreshed weekly. Green/red = the factor's effect on tonight's HR chance; gray = not in play tonight.
Last 10 games
Per-game outcomes — most recent first.
Nearest neighbors
Top 10 hitters most similar to Ian Happ across 38 features. Comp Lab uses these for small-sample BvP matchups.
Comp data temporarily unavailable.