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Ian Happ
LF · SHB · RHP · CHC
Our track record
settled S/A/B picks on Ian Happ, by confidence tier| Tier | Record | Hit rate | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| S | 0-3 | 0% | -100.0% |
| A | 0-1 | 0% | -100.0% |
| B | — | — | — |
Combined 0-4 · n=4 · ROI -100.0% · avg CLV +0.0 pts · beat close 0%
Hit-rate history
per-game results vs the line · green = over · red = underRecent form
per-game over the last 10Avg PA4.3Plate Appearancesavg 4.3
Hitsavg 0.7
Singlesavg 0.3
Doublesavg 0.1
Total Basesavg 1.6
Home Runsavg 0.2
Strikeoutsavg 1.3
Walksavg 0.3
Splits
Career n=2,407 PA · 2023-03-30 → 2026-06-17
xStats luck
xwOBA0.345
wOBA0.342
delta−0.003 due
n=330 PA
Spray chart
624 balls in play since 2025Balls in play624
HR rate6.7%
Hard-hit (95+)42%
Avg exit velo89.6 mph
Ground ball36%
Line drive24%
Fly ball32%
What kind of arm does he crush?
top 3 pitcher traits by |lift|
+79.8%significant
n=395 games · 42/230 HR when active
+35.5%small sample
n=409 games · 2/3 HR when active
-24.5%significant
n=406 games · 35/268 HR when active
// PLAYER DNA
HR signature· refreshed 2026-06-16
Vs. fastball-heavy pitcher (FB% ≥ 55%)
1.80× HR rate
230 yes / 165 no · 57 HRs
Batting 3-4-5 in the order
+36%
268 yes / 141 no · 60 HRs
Hot streak (L5 avg EV > career baseline)
−30%
197 yes / 206 no · 59 HRs
Vs. pull-fly-ball-prone pitcher (>18%)
−25%
268 yes / 138 no · 60 HRs
Wind blowing out (≥10 mph, outdoor)
−24%
34 yes / 356 no · 57 HRs
Vs. short-leash starter (avg IP < 5.0)
−22%
171 yes / 232 no · 59 HRs
Vs. high-xwOBA pitcher (xwOBA allowed > .340)
−20%
102 yes / 305 no · 60 HRs
No rest day (B2B or doubleheader)
−20%
320 yes / 88 no · 60 HRs
// 20 more factors — small sample / no significant lift
≥2 career HRs vs this pitcher
+36%
3 yes / 406 no · 60 HRs
Vs. fly-ball-prone pitcher (FB% allowed > 40%)
−17%
60 yes / 346 no · 60 HRs
3rd time through order vs starter
+17%
263 yes / 146 no · 60 HRs
Opposing starter coming off >7 days rest
+15%
63 yes / 325 no · 58 HRs
Vs. hittable pitcher (BAA > .260)
−13%
94 yes / 314 no · 60 HRs
Vs. high-contact-quality pitcher (avg EV allowed ≥ 89 mph)
−13%
179 yes / 229 no · 60 HRs
Summer game (Jun-Aug)
+12%
164 yes / 245 no · 60 HRs
HR-suppressing park (factor ≤ 0.95)
−11%
41 yes / 368 no · 60 HRs
≥1 career HR vs this pitcher
+10%
29 yes / 380 no · 60 HRs
Vs. HR-prone pitcher (HR/PA > 3.8%)
−10%
83 yes / 324 no · 60 HRs
Opposing starter's recent FB velo down ≥1 mph
+8%
61 yes / 293 no · 53 HRs
First-pitch temperature > 78°F
−6%
59 yes / 331 no · 57 HRs
Playing at home
+5%
212 yes / 197 no · 60 HRs
HR-friendly park (factor ≥ 1.10)
neutral
58 yes / 351 no · 60 HRs
Cold month (Apr / Sep / Oct)
neutral
134 yes / 275 no · 60 HRs
Vs. barrel-prone pitcher (Barrel% allowed > 9%)
neutral
1 yes / 405 no · 60 HRs
Rested (2+ days off)
neutral
15 yes / 393 no · 60 HRs
≥3 career HRs vs this pitcher
neutral
0 yes / 409 no · 60 HRs
Platoon advantage (LHB-vs-RHP or RHB-vs-LHP)
neutral
0 yes / 0 no · 0 HRs
Vs. low-whiff pitcher (whiff% < 22%)
neutral
0 yes / 0 no · 0 HRs
// LIFT = P(HR | factor true) ÷ P(HR | factor false), Bayesian- shrunk with K=30 pseudo-games. Significance requires |lift − 1| ≥ 0.20 AND smaller cohort n ≥ 15. Cohort = top 60 HR hitters, last 2 seasons. Refreshed weekly.
Last 10 games
Per-game outcomes — most recent first.
Nearest neighbors
Top 10 hitters most similar to Ian Happ across 38 features. Comp Lab uses these for small-sample BvP matchups.
Comp data temporarily unavailable.