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Stadium
Citizens Bank Park
Tonight's top play
Home Runs OVER 0.5 +3.3% edge model 13% · grade B
Why: strong vs the Four-Seam (53% usage, .352 xwOBA).
Verdict one call per prop — does the model agree with recent reality? Prop Pick Model Edge L10 Verdict Home Runs OVER 0.5 13% +3.3% 20% CAUTION Hits OVER 0.5 68% +1.1% 60% LEAN
Our track record settled S/A/B picks on Alec Bohm, by confidence tier Tier Record Hit rate ROI S 4-2 67% +26.3% A 1-1 50% -26.0% B 2-3 40% -44.4%
Combined 7-6 · n=13 · ROI -8.9% · avg CLV +0.1 pts · beat close 40%
Matchup Alec Bohm (RHB) vs Freddy Peralta RHP favors batter favors pitcher Freddy Peralta RHP · season · 83.3 IP · 358 BF
Alec Bohm hitting
Split H-AB BA SLG ISO HR BB% K% Season 64-288 .222 .354 .132 9 6.8% 15.3% vs RHP 43-197 .218 .320 .102 5 7.1% 14.7%
Pitch-type matchup Freddy Peralta's arsenal × how Alec Bohm hits it · since 2025 · TOP = batter's spot Freddy Peralta throws
Pitch Usage Velo Whiff xwOBA TOP Four-Seam53% 94.5 20% .388 Changeup 21% 88.5 30% .296 Curveball 12% 79.5 31% .334 Slider 10% 83.5 48% .337 Slow Curve 2% 74.8 38% .363 Sweeper 1% 80.2 54% .067
Alec Bohm vs each
Pitch Seen Whiff xwOBA EV TOP Four-Seam824 10% .352 91.3 Changeup 215 18% .348 89.7 Curveball 174 12% .341 93.0 Slider 428 28% .355 89.3 Slow Curve 5 50% — — Sweeper 229 18% .317 87.5
xwOBA = expected wOBA from exit velo + launch angle. Green favors the batter, red favors the pitcher.
Hit-rate history per-game results vs the line · green = over · red = under Hits60% Total Bases40% Home Runs20% Singles60% Doubles10% Triples0% Strikeouts40% Walks10% RBIs60% Runs Scored20% Hits + Runs + RBIs70% Stolen Bases0%
60% 6/10 · L10 · avg 1.0
Our model 68% OVER +1.1% edge PASS
1 @TOR 06-08 0 @TOR 06-09 2 @TOR 06-10 0 @MIL 06-12 1 @MIL 06-13 0 @MIL 06-14 0 vMIA 06-15 2 vMIA 06-16 2 vMIA 06-17 2 vNYM 06-18
L5 60% 3/5 L10 60% 6/10 L20 70% 14/20 2026 61% 53/87 2025 75% 97/130
Recent form per-game over the last 10 Avg PA 3.8 Plate Appearances avg 3.8
4 4 5 3 5 4 1 4 4 4 Total Bases avg 1.7
1 0 5 0 1 0 0 5 2 3 Home Runs avg 0.2
0 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 Strikeouts avg 0.6
0 2 0 0 2 0 0 0 1 1
Tonight's lines 2026-06-20 · every line we grade — bet any, not just the headline · BEST = best edge · Move = open→now (CLV once settled) Doubles + Triples
Line Side Grade Model Edge Odds Move Track 0.5 — B 8% — +450 -1.1 —
Hits
Line Side Grade Model Edge Odds Move Track BEST 0.5OVER PASS 68% +1.1% -204 -0.4 Sign in 1.5 OVER PASS 28% -1.1% +240 -1.4 Sign in 2.5 OVER PASS 5% -5.1% +900 +0.9 Sign in
Home Runs
Line Side Grade Model Edge Odds Move Track BEST 0.5OVER B 13% +3.3% +956 -0.1 Sign in
Singles
Line Side Grade Model Edge Odds Move Track 0.5 — PASS 53% — -140 +1.8 —
Total Bases
Line Side Grade Model Edge Odds Move Track 1.5 — B 41% — +163 +0.0 —
Same-game parlay pick 2+ — we price the correlation the book won't -204 +240 +900 +956
Price legs
Splits Career n=309 PA · 2026-03-15 → 2026-06-18
Split H-AB BA SLG ISO 2B 3B HR BB K% Season
2026 season
64-288 .222 .354 .132 11 0 9 21 15.3% vs LHP
left-handed pitching
21-91 .231 .429 .198 6 0 4 6 16.5% vs RHP
right-handed pitching
43-197 .218 .320 .102 5 0 5 15 14.7% Last 15 days
recent form
15-48 .313 .563 .250 3 0 3 2 18.8% vs Freddy Peralta
tonight's starting pitcher
1-5 .200 .800 .600 0 0 1 1 20.0% vs NYM
tonight's opponent (full roster)
26-72 .361 .569 .208 2 2 3 2 12.5% @ Citizens Bank Park
tonight's stadium
2178-5954 .366 .575 .209 388 0 285 196 20.0%
xStats luck
xwOBA 0.298
wOBA 0.301
delta +0.003 hot
n=305 PA
Spray chart 648 balls in play since 2025 · wind 13 mph cross-wind All vLHP vRHP
Match Freddy Peralta's mix Balls in play 648
HR rate 3.1%
Hard-hit (95+) 49%
Avg exit velo 91.6 mph
Ground ball 49%
Line drive 26%
Fly ball 21%
// PLAYER DNA
HR signature matrix hasn't been computed for this player yet. The weekly cron refreshes every Tuesday — check back if this player has joined the top-60 HR cohort.
Last 10 games Per-game outcomes — most recent first.
Date PA H 2B 3B HR BB K Outcomes 2026-06-18 4 2 1 0 0 0 1 2-for-4 · 1 2B · 2 RBI · 1 K 2026-06-17 4 2 0 0 0 0 1 2-for-4 · 1 RBI · 1 K 2026-06-16 4 2 0 0 1 0 0 2-for-4 · 1 HR · 3 RBI · 2 R 2026-06-15 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0-for-1 · 1 RBI 2026-06-14 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0-for-4 2026-06-13 5 1 0 0 0 0 2 1-for-5 · 2 K 2026-06-12 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0-for-3 2026-06-10 5 2 0 0 1 0 0 2-for-5 · 1 HR · 3 RBI · 1 R 2026-06-09 4 0 0 0 0 0 2 0-for-4 · 2 K 2026-06-08 4 1 0 0 0 1 0 1-for-3 · 1 RBI · 1 BB
Nearest neighbors Top 10 hitters most similar to Alec Bohm across 38 features. Comp Lab uses these for small-sample BvP matchups.
Comp data temporarily unavailable.
