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Nathan Lukes
RF · LHB · RHP · TOR
// TONIGHT'S MATCHUP
Tonight's top play
Hits OVER 0.5+11.7% edgemodel 72% · grade S
Why: strong vs the Sweeper (16% usage, .394 xwOBA).
Verdict
one call per prop — does the model agree with recent reality?Our track record
settled S/A/B picks on Nathan Lukes, by confidence tier| Tier | Record | Hit rate | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| S | 4-3 | 57% | +14.3% |
| A | 1-6 | 14% | -52.9% |
| B | 5-2 | 71% | +20.6% |
Combined 10-11 · n=21 · ROI -6.0% · avg CLV -1.0 pts · beat close 44%
Matchup
Nathan Lukes (LHB) vs Shota Imanaga LHPfavors batterfavors pitcherPitch-type matchup
Shota Imanaga's arsenal × how Nathan Lukes hits it · since 2025 · TOP = batter's spotxwOBA = expected wOBA from exit velo + launch angle. Green favors the batter, red favors the pitcher.
Hit-rate history
per-game results vs the line · green = over · red = underRecent form
per-game over the last 10Avg PA3.6Plate Appearancesavg 3.6
Hitsavg 0.3
Singlesavg 0.3
Doublesavg 0.0
Total Basesavg 0.3
Home Runsavg 0.0
Strikeoutsavg 0.6
Walksavg 0.4
Tonight's lines
2026-08-06 · every line we grade — bet any, not just the headline · BEST = best edge · Move = open→now (CLV once settled)Same-game parlay
pick 2+ — we price the correlation the book won'tSplits
Career n=293 PA · 2026-03-15 → 2026-08-04
xStats luck
xwOBA0.282
wOBA0.298
delta+0.016 hot
n=293 PA
Spray chart
629 balls in play since 2025Balls in play629
HR rate2.5%
Hard-hit (95+)31%
Avg exit velo85.9 mph
Ground ball50%
Line drive22%
Fly ball22%
// PLAYER DNA
HR signature matrix hasn't been computed for this player yet. The weekly cron refreshes every Tuesday — check back if this player has joined the top-60 HR cohort.
Last 10 games
Per-game outcomes — most recent first.
Nearest neighbors
Top 10 hitters most similar to Nathan Lukes across 38 features. Comp Lab uses these for small-sample BvP matchups.
Comp data temporarily unavailable.