← BACK TO SLATE Tonight's top play
Hits OVER 0.5 +9.8% edge model 69% · grade S
Why: strong vs the Knuckle Curve (18% usage, .474 xwOBA).
Verdict one call per prop — does the model agree with recent reality? Prop Pick Model Edge L10 Verdict Hits OVER 0.5 69% +9.8% 80% STRONG Home Runs OVER 0.5 9% +1.4% 10% CAUTION
Our track record settled S/A/B picks on Nathan Lukes, by confidence tier Tier Record Hit rate ROI S 2-1 67% +8.6% A 1-1 50% -13.5% B 2-3 40% -41.9%
Combined 5-5 · n=10 · ROI -21.1% · avg CLV +0.5 pts · beat close 50%
Matchup Nathan Lukes (LHB) vs Hunter Brown favors batter favors pitcher Hunter Brown · season · 19.5 IP · 84 BF
Nathan Lukes hitting
Split H-AB BA SLG ISO HR BB% K% Season 201-752 .267 .391 .124 15 9.1% 15.3% vs ?HP 183-646 .283 .418 .135 15 8.5% 13.5%
Pitch-type matchup Hunter Brown's arsenal × how Nathan Lukes hits it · since 2025 · TOP = batter's spot Hunter Brown throws
Pitch Usage Velo Whiff xwOBA Four-Seam 37% 96.6 26% .345 Sinker 23% 95.7 16% .295 TOP Knuckle Curve18% 83.5 38% .383 Changeup 12% 88.2 25% .303 Slider 8% 91.3 24% .384 Cutter 1% 93.4 24% .694
Nathan Lukes vs each
Pitch Seen Whiff xwOBA EV Four-Seam 916 12% .329 87.7 Sinker 297 9% .271 87.2 TOP Knuckle Curve35 17% .474 93.0 Changeup 218 16% .344 83.3 Slider 242 17% .266 83.8 Cutter 183 10% .334 84.7
xwOBA = expected wOBA from exit velo + launch angle. Green favors the batter, red favors the pitcher.
Hit-rate history per-game results vs the line · green = over · red = under Hits80% Total Bases30% Home Runs10% Singles60% Doubles20% Triples0% Strikeouts30% Walks20% RBIs20% Runs Scored30% Hits + Runs + RBIs80% Stolen Bases0%
80% 8/10 · L10 · avg 1.0
Our model 69% OVER +9.8% edge S
1 vPHI 06-09 1 vPHI 06-10 1 vNYY 06-12 0 vNYY 06-13 3 vNYY 06-14 1 @BOS 06-16 1 @BOS 06-17 1 @BOS 06-18 1 @CHC 06-19 0 @CHC 06-20
L5 80% 4/5 L10 80% 8/10 L20 85% 17/20 2026 62% 38/61 2025 56% 84/151
Recent form per-game over the last 10 Avg PA 3.7 Plate Appearances avg 3.7
4 4 4 5 5 4 1 4 3 3 Total Bases avg 1.5
1 1 1 0 4 1 1 4 2 0 Home Runs avg 0.1
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 Strikeouts avg 0.7
0 2 2 3 0 0 0 0 0 0
Tonight's lines 2026-06-22 · every line we grade — bet any, not just the headline · BEST = best edge · Move = open→now (CLV once settled) Doubles + Triples
Line Side Grade Model Edge Odds Move Track 0.5 — B 8% — +450 +0.8 —
Hits
Line Side Grade Model Edge Odds Move Track BEST 0.5OVER S 69% +9.8% -143 -6.1 Sign in 1.5 OVER PASS 27% +1.9% +300 +4.2 Sign in 2.5 OVER PASS 5% -1.8% +1300 +2.9 Sign in
Home Runs
Line Side Grade Model Edge Odds Move Track BEST 0.5OVER PASS 9% +1.4% +1287 +1.1 Sign in
RBIs
Line Side Grade Model Edge Odds Move Track 0.5 — S 6% — +272 +0.5 — 1.5 — PASS 3% — +1000 +0.0 —
Singles
Line Side Grade Model Edge Odds Move Track 0.5 — S 56% — +112 +4.6 — 1.5 — PASS 15% — +550 +2.9 —
Strikeouts
Line Side Grade Model Edge Odds Move Track 0.5 — PASS 49% — -137 +0.0 —
Total Bases
Line Side Grade Model Edge Odds Move Track 1.5 — B 38% — +190 +1.1 —
Same-game parlay pick 2+ — we price the correlation the book won't -143 +300 +1300 +1287
Price legs
Splits Career n=827 PA · 2023-04-17 → 2026-06-20
Split H-AB BA SLG ISO 2B 3B HR BB K% Career
all history
201-752 .267 .391 .124 38 5 15 75 15.3% vs LHP
left-handed pitching
18-106 .170 .226 .057 4 1 0 15 26.4% vs RHP
right-handed pitching
183-646 .283 .418 .135 34 4 15 60 13.5% Last 15 days
recent form
12-41 .293 .415 .122 2 0 1 2 19.5% vs HOU
tonight's opponent (full roster)
2-8 .250 .250 .000 0 0 0 0 25.0% @ Rogers Centre
tonight's stadium
1138-3964 .287 .317 .030 119 0 0 232 24.6%
xStats luck
xwOBA 0.292
wOBA 0.315
delta +0.023 hot
n=162 PA
Spray chart 527 balls in play since 2025 · wind 7 mph blowing in All vLHP vRHP
Match Hunter Brown's mix Balls in play 527
HR rate 2.5%
Hard-hit (95+) 33%
Avg exit velo 86.5 mph
Ground ball 49%
Line drive 23%
Fly ball 21%
// PLAYER DNA
HR signature matrix hasn't been computed for this player yet. The weekly cron refreshes every Tuesday — check back if this player has joined the top-60 HR cohort.
Last 10 games Per-game outcomes — most recent first.
Date PA H 2B 3B HR BB K Outcomes 2026-06-20 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0-for-3 2026-06-19 3 1 1 0 0 0 0 1-for-3 · 1 2B 2026-06-18 4 1 0 0 1 0 0 1-for-4 · 1 HR · 1 RBI · 1 R 2026-06-17 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 1-for-1 2026-06-16 4 1 0 0 0 0 0 1-for-4 2026-06-14 5 3 1 0 0 0 0 3-for-5 · 1 2B · 1 RBI · 1 R 2026-06-13 5 0 0 0 0 1 3 0-for-4 · 1 BB · 3 K 2026-06-12 4 1 0 0 0 0 2 1-for-4 · 2 K 2026-06-10 4 1 0 0 0 1 2 1-for-3 · 1 R · 1 BB · 2 K 2026-06-09 4 1 0 0 0 0 0 1-for-4
Nearest neighbors Top 10 hitters most similar to Nathan Lukes across 38 features. Comp Lab uses these for small-sample BvP matchups.
Comp data temporarily unavailable.
