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Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
1B · RHB · RHP · TOR
// TONIGHT'S MATCHUP
Our track record
settled S/A/B picks on Vladimir Guerrero Jr., by confidence tier| Tier | Record | Hit rate | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| S | 4-1 | 80% | +88.6% |
| A | 6-5 | 55% | -6.6% |
| B | 2-3 | 40% | -44.5% |
Combined 12-9 · n=21 · ROI +7.0% · avg CLV +0.4 pts · beat close 50%
Matchup
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (RHB) vs Hayden Wesneski favors batterfavors pitcherPitch-type matchup
Hayden Wesneski's arsenal × how Vladimir Guerrero Jr. hits it · since 2025 · TOP = batter's spotxwOBA = expected wOBA from exit velo + launch angle. Green favors the batter, red favors the pitcher.
Hit-rate history
per-game results vs the line · green = over · red = underRecent form
per-game over the last 10Avg PA4.1Plate Appearancesavg 4.1
Hitsavg 1.3
Singlesavg 1.0
Doublesavg 0.3
Total Basesavg 1.6
Home Runsavg 0.0
Strikeoutsavg 0.6
Walksavg 0.2
Tonight's lines
2026-08-04 · every line we grade — bet any, not just the headline · BEST = best edge · Move = open→now (CLV once settled)Splits
Career n=456 PA · 2026-03-19 → 2026-08-01
xStats luck
xwOBA0.358
wOBA0.352
delta−0.006 due
n=455 PA
Spray chart
922 balls in play since 2025· wind 2 mph cross-windBalls in play922
HR rate4.1%
Hard-hit (95+)49%
Avg exit velo91.5 mph
Ground ball48%
Line drive27%
Fly ball20%
What kind of arm does he crush?
top 3 pitcher traits by |lift|
-38.9%significant
n=442 games · 6/79 HR when active
-32.5%significant
n=468 games · 7/79 HR when active
+30.0%significant
n=467 games · 15/80 HR when active
// PLAYER DNA
HR signature· refreshed 2026-08-04
// TONIGHT
0 / 0HELPING · IN PLAY
No DNA factors in play tonight
helping tonighthurting tonightnot in play tonight
HR-friendly park (factor ≥ 1.10)
+46%
64 yes / 400 no · 67 HRs
Opposing starter coming off >7 days rest
0.61× HR rate
79 yes / 363 no · 62 HRs
Vs. short-leash starter (avg IP < 5.0)
−34%
167 yes / 286 no · 64 HRs
Vs. high-xwOBA pitcher (xwOBA allowed > .340)
−32%
79 yes / 389 no · 67 HRs
Playing at home
−30%
243 yes / 225 no · 67 HRs
Vs. HR-prone pitcher (HR/PA > 3.8%)
+30%
80 yes / 387 no · 67 HRs
Cold month (Apr / Sep / Oct)
+24%
148 yes / 320 no · 67 HRs
Hot streak (L5 avg EV > career baseline)
+20%
157 yes / 306 no · 67 HRs
// 20 more factors — small sample / no significant lift
Wind blowing out (≥10 mph, outdoor)
1.55× HR rate
5 yes / 435 no · 59 HRs
No rest day (B2B or doubleheader)
−19%
370 yes / 97 no · 67 HRs
≥1 career HR vs this pitcher
+18%
57 yes / 411 no · 67 HRs
First-pitch temperature > 78°F
+18%
55 yes / 385 no · 59 HRs
Batting 3-4-5 in the order
+17%
347 yes / 121 no · 67 HRs
Platoon advantage (LHB-vs-RHP or RHB-vs-LHP)
−15%
75 yes / 240 no · 45 HRs
3rd time through order vs starter
+13%
321 yes / 147 no · 67 HRs
Vs. hittable pitcher (BAA > .260)
−11%
80 yes / 388 no · 67 HRs
Vs. high-contact-quality pitcher (avg EV allowed ≥ 89 mph)
+11%
203 yes / 265 no · 67 HRs
Vs. fastball-heavy pitcher (FB% ≥ 55%)
−9%
259 yes / 191 no · 62 HRs
HR-suppressing park (factor ≤ 0.95)
+8%
50 yes / 414 no · 67 HRs
Opposing starter's recent FB velo down ≥1 mph
+7%
72 yes / 321 no · 56 HRs
≥3 career HRs vs this pitcher
neutral
1 yes / 467 no · 67 HRs
Summer game (Jun-Aug)
neutral
200 yes / 268 no · 67 HRs
Vs. pull-fly-ball-prone pitcher (>18%)
neutral
308 yes / 159 no · 66 HRs
≥2 career HRs vs this pitcher
neutral
13 yes / 455 no · 67 HRs
Rested (2+ days off)
neutral
21 yes / 446 no · 67 HRs
Vs. fly-ball-prone pitcher (FB% allowed > 40%)
neutral
78 yes / 389 no · 66 HRs
Vs. barrel-prone pitcher (Barrel% allowed > 9%)
neutral
0 yes / 467 no · 66 HRs
Vs. low-whiff pitcher (whiff% < 22%)
neutral
0 yes / 0 no · 0 HRs
// LIFT = P(HR | factor true) ÷ P(HR | factor false), Bayesian- shrunk with K=30 pseudo-games. Significance requires |lift − 1| ≥ 0.20 AND smaller cohort n ≥ 15. Cohort = top 60 HR hitters, last 2 seasons. Refreshed weekly. Green/red = the factor's effect on tonight's HR chance; gray = not in play tonight.
Last 10 games
Per-game outcomes — most recent first.
Nearest neighbors
Top 10 hitters most similar to Vladimir Guerrero Jr. across 38 features. Comp Lab uses these for small-sample BvP matchups.
Comp data temporarily unavailable.