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Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
1B · RHB · RHP · TOR
Our track record
settled S/A/B picks on Vladimir Guerrero Jr., by confidence tier| Tier | Record | Hit rate | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| S | 8-2 | 80% | +55.2% |
| A | 4-6 | 40% | -8.0% |
| B | 6-9 | 40% | -42.1% |
Combined 18-17 · n=35 · ROI -4.6% · avg CLV +0.4 pts · beat close 44%
Hit-rate history
per-game results vs the line · green = over · red = underRecent form
per-game over the last 10Avg PA4.4Plate Appearancesavg 4.4
Hitsavg 1.0
Singlesavg 0.7
Doublesavg 0.2
Total Basesavg 1.5
Home Runsavg 0.1
Strikeoutsavg 0.9
Walksavg 0.5
Splits
Career n=2,807 PA · 2023-03-30 → 2026-09-16
xStats luck
xwOBA0.345
wOBA0.330
delta−0.015 due
n=597 PA
Spray chart
1033 balls in play since 2025Balls in play1033
HR rate4.0%
Hard-hit (95+)49%
Avg exit velo91.4 mph
Ground ball47%
Line drive26%
Fly ball20%
What kind of arm does he crush?
top 3 pitcher traits by |lift|
-39.2%significant
n=471 games · 6/81 HR when active
-20.3%significant
n=497 games · 9/83 HR when active
-17.6%small sample
n=497 games · 9/80 HR when active
// PLAYER DNA
HR signature· refreshed 2026-09-15
helping tonighthurting tonightnot in play tonight
HR-friendly park (factor ≥ 1.10)
1.51× HR rate
68 yes / 425 no · 70 HRs
Opposing starter coming off >7 days rest
0.61× HR rate
81 yes / 390 no · 65 HRs
Playing at home
−31%
257 yes / 240 no · 70 HRs
Vs. short-leash starter (avg IP < 5.0)
−30%
179 yes / 304 no · 68 HRs
Cold month (Apr / Sep / Oct)
+28%
160 yes / 337 no · 70 HRs
Batting 3-4-5 in the order
+23%
368 yes / 129 no · 70 HRs
No rest day (B2B or doubleheader)
−21%
394 yes / 102 no · 70 HRs
Vs. hittable pitcher (BAA > .260)
−20%
83 yes / 414 no · 70 HRs
// 20 more factors — small sample / no significant lift
Wind blowing out (≥10 mph, outdoor)
1.56× HR rate
5 yes / 464 no · 62 HRs
Hot streak (L5 avg EV > career baseline)
+19%
167 yes / 325 no · 70 HRs
Vs. HR-prone pitcher (HR/PA > 3.8%)
+19%
83 yes / 413 no · 70 HRs
Vs. high-xwOBA pitcher (xwOBA allowed > .340)
−18%
80 yes / 417 no · 70 HRs
First-pitch temperature > 78°F
+17%
70 yes / 399 no · 62 HRs
3rd time through order vs starter
+15%
345 yes / 152 no · 70 HRs
Rested (2+ days off)
+11%
23 yes / 473 no · 70 HRs
Vs. fly-ball-prone pitcher (FB% allowed > 40%)
−11%
82 yes / 414 no · 69 HRs
≥1 career HR vs this pitcher
+10%
63 yes / 434 no · 70 HRs
HR-suppressing park (factor ≤ 0.95)
+10%
56 yes / 437 no · 70 HRs
Platoon advantage (LHB-vs-RHP or RHB-vs-LHP)
−9%
85 yes / 252 no · 48 HRs
Summer game (Jun-Aug)
−8%
217 yes / 280 no · 70 HRs
Vs. pull-fly-ball-prone pitcher (>18%)
+8%
336 yes / 160 no · 69 HRs
Vs. high-contact-quality pitcher (avg EV allowed ≥ 89 mph)
+7%
211 yes / 286 no · 70 HRs
Vs. fastball-heavy pitcher (FB% ≥ 55%)
−7%
274 yes / 204 no · 65 HRs
≥3 career HRs vs this pitcher
−7%
2 yes / 495 no · 70 HRs
Opposing starter's recent FB velo down ≥1 mph
+6%
73 yes / 344 no · 59 HRs
≥2 career HRs vs this pitcher
neutral
15 yes / 482 no · 70 HRs
Vs. barrel-prone pitcher (Barrel% allowed > 9%)
neutral
0 yes / 496 no · 69 HRs
Vs. low-whiff pitcher (whiff% < 22%)
neutral
0 yes / 0 no · 0 HRs
// LIFT = P(HR | factor true) ÷ P(HR | factor false), Bayesian- shrunk with K=30 pseudo-games. Significance requires |lift − 1| ≥ 0.20 AND smaller cohort n ≥ 15. Cohort = top 60 HR hitters, last 2 seasons. Refreshed weekly. Green/red = the factor's effect on tonight's HR chance; gray = not in play tonight.
Last 10 games
Per-game outcomes — most recent first.
Nearest neighbors
Top 10 hitters most similar to Vladimir Guerrero Jr. across 38 features. Comp Lab uses these for small-sample BvP matchups.
Comp data temporarily unavailable.