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Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
1B · RHB · RHP · TOR
Our track record
settled S/A/B picks on Vladimir Guerrero Jr., by confidence tier| Tier | Record | Hit rate | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| S | 2-2 | 50% | +49.8% |
| A | 2-3 | 40% | -42.0% |
| B | 3-0 | 100% | +39.9% |
Combined 7-5 · n=12 · ROI +9.0% · avg CLV +0.7 pts · beat close 50%
Hit-rate history
per-game results vs the line · green = over · red = underRecent form
per-game over the last 10Avg PA4.2Plate Appearancesavg 4.2
Hitsavg 0.6
Singlesavg 0.4
Doublesavg 0.1
Total Basesavg 1.0
Home Runsavg 0.1
Strikeoutsavg 0.6
Walksavg 0.3
Splits
Career n=2,517 PA · 2023-03-30 → 2026-06-17
xStats luck
xwOBA0.370
wOBA0.375
delta+0.005 hot
n=307 PA
Spray chart
811 balls in play since 2025Balls in play811
HR rate4.3%
Hard-hit (95+)51%
Avg exit velo91.7 mph
Ground ball48%
Line drive26%
Fly ball20%
What kind of arm does he crush?
top 3 pitcher traits by |lift|
-32.3%significant
n=405 games · 6/68 HR when active
-31.6%significant
n=430 games · 7/75 HR when active
+19.7%small sample
n=430 games · 32/193 HR when active
// PLAYER DNA
HR signature· refreshed 2026-06-16
HR-friendly park (factor ≥ 1.10)
+43%
58 yes / 368 no · 64 HRs
Opposing starter coming off >7 days rest
−32%
68 yes / 337 no · 59 HRs
Vs. high-xwOBA pitcher (xwOBA allowed > .340)
−32%
75 yes / 355 no · 64 HRs
Vs. short-leash starter (avg IP < 5.0)
−26%
156 yes / 260 no · 61 HRs
Playing at home
−26%
224 yes / 206 no · 64 HRs
No rest day (B2B or doubleheader)
−22%
339 yes / 90 no · 64 HRs
// 22 more factors — small sample / no significant lift
Wind blowing out (≥10 mph, outdoor)
1.53× HR rate
5 yes / 397 no · 56 HRs
Vs. high-contact-quality pitcher (avg EV allowed ≥ 89 mph)
+20%
193 yes / 237 no · 64 HRs
Hot streak (L5 avg EV > career baseline)
+20%
152 yes / 273 no · 64 HRs
First-pitch temperature > 78°F
+19%
52 yes / 350 no · 56 HRs
Cold month (Apr / Sep / Oct)
+19%
148 yes / 282 no · 64 HRs
≥1 career HR vs this pitcher
+16%
50 yes / 380 no · 64 HRs
3rd time through order vs starter
+13%
296 yes / 134 no · 64 HRs
Vs. fastball-heavy pitcher (FB% ≥ 55%)
−12%
239 yes / 175 no · 59 HRs
Platoon advantage (LHB-vs-RHP or RHB-vs-LHP)
−11%
69 yes / 215 no · 42 HRs
Vs. pull-fly-ball-prone pitcher (>18%)
−11%
252 yes / 177 no · 63 HRs
HR-suppressing park (factor ≤ 0.95)
+10%
47 yes / 379 no · 64 HRs
≥2 career HRs vs this pitcher
+9%
10 yes / 420 no · 64 HRs
Vs. HR-prone pitcher (HR/PA > 3.8%)
+9%
80 yes / 350 no · 64 HRs
Batting 3-4-5 in the order
+9%
328 yes / 102 no · 64 HRs
Vs. hittable pitcher (BAA > .260)
−8%
67 yes / 363 no · 64 HRs
Summer game (Jun-Aug)
+5%
162 yes / 268 no · 64 HRs
Rested (2+ days off)
neutral
18 yes / 411 no · 64 HRs
Vs. fly-ball-prone pitcher (FB% allowed > 40%)
neutral
72 yes / 357 no · 63 HRs
Opposing starter's recent FB velo down ≥1 mph
neutral
66 yes / 294 no · 53 HRs
Vs. low-whiff pitcher (whiff% < 22%)
neutral
0 yes / 0 no · 0 HRs
≥3 career HRs vs this pitcher
neutral
0 yes / 430 no · 64 HRs
Vs. barrel-prone pitcher (Barrel% allowed > 9%)
neutral
0 yes / 429 no · 63 HRs
// LIFT = P(HR | factor true) ÷ P(HR | factor false), Bayesian- shrunk with K=30 pseudo-games. Significance requires |lift − 1| ≥ 0.20 AND smaller cohort n ≥ 15. Cohort = top 60 HR hitters, last 2 seasons. Refreshed weekly.
Last 10 games
Per-game outcomes — most recent first.
Nearest neighbors
Top 10 hitters most similar to Vladimir Guerrero Jr. across 38 features. Comp Lab uses these for small-sample BvP matchups.
Comp data temporarily unavailable.