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Juan Soto
LF · LHB · LHP · NYM
// TONIGHT'S MATCHUP
Our track record
settled S/A/B picks on Juan Soto, by confidence tier| Tier | Record | Hit rate | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| S | 11-8 | 58% | +46.9% |
| A | 7-9 | 44% | -22.9% |
| B | 3-7 | 30% | -41.1% |
Combined 21-24 · n=45 · ROI +2.6% · avg CLV -2.8 pts · beat close 45%
Matchup
Juan Soto (LHB) vs Cristopher Sánchez LHPfavors batterfavors pitcherPitch-type matchup
Cristopher Sánchez's arsenal × how Juan Soto hits it · since 2025 · TOP = batter's spotxwOBA = expected wOBA from exit velo + launch angle. Green favors the batter, red favors the pitcher.
Hit-rate history
per-game results vs the line · green = over · red = underRecent form
per-game over the last 10Avg PA4.8Plate Appearancesavg 4.8
Hitsavg 1.1
Singlesavg 0.5
Doublesavg 0.3
Total Basesavg 2.3
Home Runsavg 0.3
Strikeoutsavg 0.8
Walksavg 0.6
Tonight's lines
2026-09-20 · every line we grade — bet any, not just the headline · BEST = best edge · Move = open→now (CLV once settled)Splits
Career n=449 PA · 2026-03-19 → 2026-09-17
xStats luck
xwOBA0.409
wOBA0.384
delta−0.025 due
n=448 PA
Spray chart
771 balls in play since 2025Balls in play771
HR rate8.8%
Hard-hit (95+)52%
Avg exit velo92.9 mph
Ground ball43%
Line drive20%
Fly ball30%
What kind of arm does he crush?
top 3 pitcher traits by |lift|
+29.8%significant
n=448 games · 20/69 HR when active
-19.0%small sample
n=451 games · 8/50 HR when active
+23.4%significant
n=448 games · 76/326 HR when active
// PLAYER DNA
HR signature· refreshed 2026-09-15
// TONIGHT
0 / 1HELPING · IN PLAY
Leaning against
// IN PLAY TONIGHT
- −20% HR rate when hot streak (l5 avg ev > career baseline).
helping tonighthurting tonightnot in play tonight
Vs. fly-ball-prone pitcher (FB% allowed > 40%)
+30%
69 yes / 379 no · 98 HRs
Batting 3-4-5 in the order
+26%
224 yes / 227 no · 98 HRs
Vs. pull-fly-ball-prone pitcher (>18%)
+23%
326 yes / 122 no · 98 HRs
Hot streak (L5 avg EV > career baseline)tonight
−20%
217 yes / 229 no · 97 HRs
// 24 more factors — small sample / no significant lift
Rested (2+ days off)
+20%
19 yes / 431 no · 98 HRs
≥1 career HR vs this pitcher
−19%
50 yes / 401 no · 98 HRs
Vs. hittable pitcher (BAA > .260)
−19%
97 yes / 354 no · 98 HRs
HR-friendly park (factor ≥ 1.10)
+14%
73 yes / 374 no · 96 HRs
Vs. short-leash starter (avg IP < 5.0)
+13%
173 yes / 269 no · 94 HRs
Opposing starter coming off >7 days rest
−11%
66 yes / 352 no · 87 HRs
3rd time through order vs starter
−10%
293 yes / 158 no · 98 HRs
Summer game (Jun-Aug)
−6%
205 yes / 246 no · 98 HRs
Playing at home
−5%
228 yes / 223 no · 98 HRs
Cold month (Apr / Sep / Oct)
+5%
128 yes / 323 no · 98 HRs
HR-suppressing park (factor ≤ 0.95)
+5%
171 yes / 276 no · 96 HRs
Wind blowing out (≥10 mph, outdoor)
neutral
6 yes / 435 no · 96 HRs
≥2 career HRs vs this pitcher
neutral
6 yes / 445 no · 98 HRs
Vs. high-contact-quality pitcher (avg EV allowed ≥ 89 mph)
neutral
207 yes / 244 no · 98 HRs
No rest day (B2B or doubleheader)
neutral
361 yes / 89 no · 98 HRs
Vs. high-xwOBA pitcher (xwOBA allowed > .340)
neutral
108 yes / 342 no · 98 HRs
Platoon advantage (LHB-vs-RHP or RHB-vs-LHP)
neutral
221 yes / 91 no · 63 HRs
First-pitch temperature > 78°F
neutral
72 yes / 369 no · 96 HRs
Opposing starter's recent FB velo down ≥1 mph
neutral
56 yes / 328 no · 84 HRs
Vs. HR-prone pitcher (HR/PA > 3.8%)
neutral
91 yes / 356 no · 97 HRs
Vs. fastball-heavy pitcher (FB% ≥ 55%)
neutral
239 yes / 196 no · 94 HRs
Vs. low-whiff pitcher (whiff% < 22%)
neutral
0 yes / 0 no · 0 HRs
≥3 career HRs vs this pitcher
neutral
0 yes / 451 no · 98 HRs
Vs. barrel-prone pitcher (Barrel% allowed > 9%)
neutral
0 yes / 448 no · 98 HRs
// LIFT = P(HR | factor true) ÷ P(HR | factor false), Bayesian- shrunk with K=30 pseudo-games. Significance requires |lift − 1| ≥ 0.20 AND smaller cohort n ≥ 15. Cohort = top 60 HR hitters, last 2 seasons. Refreshed weekly. Green/red = the factor's effect on tonight's HR chance; gray = not in play tonight.
Last 10 games
Per-game outcomes — most recent first.
Nearest neighbors
Top 10 hitters most similar to Juan Soto across 38 features. Comp Lab uses these for small-sample BvP matchups.
Comp data temporarily unavailable.