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Juan Soto
LF · LHB · LHP · NYM
// TONIGHT'S MATCHUP
Our track record
settled S/A/B picks on Juan Soto, by confidence tier| Tier | Record | Hit rate | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| S | 12-6 | 67% | +63.7% |
| A | 2-7 | 22% | -67.7% |
| B | 4-2 | 67% | +51.6% |
Combined 18-15 · n=33 · ROI +25.7% · avg CLV -0.4 pts · beat close 55%
Matchup
Juan Soto (LHB) vs Joey Cantillo LHPfavors batterfavors pitcherPitch-type matchup
Joey Cantillo's arsenal × how Juan Soto hits it · since 2025 · TOP = batter's spotxwOBA = expected wOBA from exit velo + launch angle. Green favors the batter, red favors the pitcher.
Hit-rate history
per-game results vs the line · green = over · red = underRecent form
per-game over the last 10Avg PA3.9Plate Appearancesavg 3.9
Hitsavg 0.5
Singlesavg 0.5
Doublesavg 0.0
Total Basesavg 0.5
Home Runsavg 0.0
Strikeoutsavg 0.8
Walksavg 0.9
Tonight's lines
2026-08-04 · every line we grade — bet any, not just the headline · BEST = best edge · Move = open→now (CLV once settled)Splits
Career n=2,628 PA · 2023-03-30 → 2026-07-24
xStats luck
xwOBA0.425
wOBA0.414
delta−0.011 due
n=368 PA
Spray chart
713 balls in play since 2025· wind 8 mph blowing inBalls in play713
HR rate9.0%
Hard-hit (95+)52%
Avg exit velo92.9 mph
Ground ball43%
Line drive20%
Fly ball30%
What kind of arm does he crush?
top 3 pitcher traits by |lift|
+39.7%significant
n=433 games · 19/61 HR when active
+32.3%significant
n=433 games · 72/307 HR when active
-16.0%small sample
n=437 games · 8/48 HR when active
// PLAYER DNA
HR signature· refreshed 2026-08-04
// TONIGHT
2 / 2HELPING · IN PLAY
Leaning favorable
// IN PLAY TONIGHT
- +32% HR rate when vs pull-fly-ball-prone pitcher (>18%).
- +23% HR rate when rested (2+ days off).
helping tonighthurting tonightnot in play tonight
Vs. fly-ball-prone pitcher (FB% allowed > 40%)
+40%
61 yes / 372 no · 93 HRs
Vs. pull-fly-ball-prone pitcher (>18%)tonight
+32%
307 yes / 126 no · 93 HRs
Batting 3-4-5 in the order
+29%
224 yes / 213 no · 94 HRs
Rested (2+ days off)tonight
+23%
18 yes / 418 no · 94 HRs
// 24 more factors — small sample / no significant lift
Hot streak (L5 avg EV > career baseline)
−19%
212 yes / 220 no · 93 HRs
≥1 career HR vs this pitcher
−16%
48 yes / 389 no · 94 HRs
Opposing starter coming off >7 days rest
−15%
65 yes / 340 no · 83 HRs
Vs. high-xwOBA pitcher (xwOBA allowed > .340)
−14%
102 yes / 334 no · 94 HRs
HR-friendly park (factor ≥ 1.10)
+13%
70 yes / 363 no · 92 HRs
Vs. short-leash starter (avg IP < 5.0)
+11%
169 yes / 261 no · 90 HRs
Vs. hittable pitcher (BAA > .260)
−11%
94 yes / 343 no · 94 HRs
3rd time through order vs starter
−10%
286 yes / 151 no · 94 HRs
No rest day (B2B or doubleheader)
−7%
350 yes / 86 no · 94 HRs
Vs. HR-prone pitcher (HR/PA > 3.8%)
−6%
89 yes / 344 no · 93 HRs
HR-suppressing park (factor ≤ 0.95)
+6%
163 yes / 270 no · 92 HRs
Summer game (Jun-Aug)
−5%
202 yes / 235 no · 94 HRs
Wind blowing out (≥10 mph, outdoor)
neutral
6 yes / 421 no · 92 HRs
Cold month (Apr / Sep / Oct)
neutral
117 yes / 320 no · 94 HRs
Playing at home
neutral
223 yes / 214 no · 94 HRs
Platoon advantage (LHB-vs-RHP or RHB-vs-LHP)
neutral
213 yes / 89 no · 60 HRs
Opposing starter's recent FB velo down ≥1 mph
neutral
56 yes / 319 no · 82 HRs
≥2 career HRs vs this pitcher
neutral
5 yes / 432 no · 94 HRs
Vs. high-contact-quality pitcher (avg EV allowed ≥ 89 mph)
neutral
208 yes / 229 no · 94 HRs
≥3 career HRs vs this pitcher
neutral
0 yes / 437 no · 94 HRs
Vs. barrel-prone pitcher (Barrel% allowed > 9%)
neutral
0 yes / 433 no · 93 HRs
First-pitch temperature > 78°F
neutral
65 yes / 362 no · 92 HRs
Vs. low-whiff pitcher (whiff% < 22%)
neutral
0 yes / 0 no · 0 HRs
Vs. fastball-heavy pitcher (FB% ≥ 55%)
neutral
233 yes / 191 no · 91 HRs
// LIFT = P(HR | factor true) ÷ P(HR | factor false), Bayesian- shrunk with K=30 pseudo-games. Significance requires |lift − 1| ≥ 0.20 AND smaller cohort n ≥ 15. Cohort = top 60 HR hitters, last 2 seasons. Refreshed weekly. Green/red = the factor's effect on tonight's HR chance; gray = not in play tonight.
Last 10 games
Per-game outcomes — most recent first.
Nearest neighbors
Top 10 hitters most similar to Juan Soto across 38 features. Comp Lab uses these for small-sample BvP matchups.
Comp data temporarily unavailable.