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Mickey Moniak
LF · LHB · RHP
// TONIGHT'S MATCHUP
Tonight's top play
Home Runs OVER 0.5+12.4% edgemodel 35% · grade S
Why: NOT Vs. high-contact-quality pitcher (avg EV allowed ≥ 89 mph): -26.7% lift over 126 games.
Verdict
one call per prop — does the model agree with recent reality?Our track record
settled S/A/B picks on Mickey Moniak, by confidence tier| Tier | Record | Hit rate | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| S | 1-1 | 50% | -24.0% |
| A | 1-1 | 50% | -4.5% |
| B | 0-1 | 0% | -100.0% |
Combined 2-3 · n=5 · ROI -31.4% · avg CLV +5.9 pts · beat close 100%
Matchup
Mickey Moniak (LHB) vs Luinder Avila RHPfavors batterfavors pitcherHit-rate history
per-game results vs the line · green = over · red = underRecent form
per-game over the last 10Avg PA4.1Plate Appearancesavg 4.1
Hitsavg 1.0
Singlesavg 0.7
Doublesavg 0.1
Total Basesavg 1.7
Home Runsavg 0.2
Strikeoutsavg 1.1
Walksavg 0.1
Tonight's lines
2026-08-02 · every line we grade — bet any, not just the headline · BEST = best edge · Move = open→now (CLV once settled)Same-game parlay
pick 2+ — we price the correlation the book won'tSplits
Career n=280 PA · 2026-03-17 → 2026-07-29
xStats luck
xwOBA0.310
wOBA0.349
delta+0.039 hot
n=279 PA
Spray chart
521 balls in play since 2025· wind 7 mph blowing inBalls in play521
HR rate7.5%
Hard-hit (95+)43%
Avg exit velo89.5 mph
Ground ball34%
Line drive23%
Fly ball37%
What kind of arm does he crush?
top 3 pitcher traits by |lift|
-26.7%significant
n=257 games · 17/131 HR when active
+0.0%small sample
n=0 games · 0/0 HR when active
+0.0%small sample
n=0 games · 0/0 HR when active
// PLAYER DNA
HR signature· refreshed 2026-05-21
// TONIGHT
2 / 2HELPING · IN PLAY
Leaning favorable
// IN PLAY TONIGHT
- +40% HR rate when playing at home.
- +24% HR rate when summer game (jun-aug).
helping tonighthurting tonightnot in play tonight
Rested (2+ days off)
+47%
25 yes / 231 no · 40 HRs
Playing at hometonight
+40%
137 yes / 120 no · 41 HRs
No rest day (B2B or doubleheader)
−30%
174 yes / 82 no · 40 HRs
Vs. high-contact-quality pitcher (avg EV allowed ≥ 89 mph)
−27%
131 yes / 126 no · 41 HRs
Summer game (Jun-Aug)tonight
+24%
121 yes / 136 no · 41 HRs
HR-suppressing park (factor ≤ 0.95)
−23%
23 yes / 234 no · 41 HRs
// 6 more factors — small sample / no significant lift
HR-friendly park (factor ≥ 1.10)
+14%
109 yes / 148 no · 41 HRs
Cold month (Apr / Sep / Oct)
neutral
51 yes / 206 no · 41 HRs
Vs. low-whiff pitcher (whiff% < 22%)
neutral
0 yes / 0 no · 0 HRs
Vs. hittable pitcher (BAA > .260)
neutral
0 yes / 0 no · 0 HRs
Vs. fastball-heavy pitcher (FB% ≥ 55%)
neutral
0 yes / 0 no · 0 HRs
Vs. high-xwOBA pitcher (xwOBA allowed > .340)
neutral
0 yes / 0 no · 0 HRs
// LIFT = P(HR | factor true) ÷ P(HR | factor false), Bayesian- shrunk with K=30 pseudo-games. Significance requires |lift − 1| ≥ 0.20 AND smaller cohort n ≥ 15. Cohort = top 60 HR hitters, last 2 seasons. Refreshed weekly. Green/red = the factor's effect on tonight's HR chance; gray = not in play tonight.
Last 10 games
Per-game outcomes — most recent first.
Nearest neighbors
Top 10 hitters most similar to Mickey Moniak across 38 features. Comp Lab uses these for small-sample BvP matchups.
Comp data temporarily unavailable.