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Mickey Moniak
LF · LHB · RHP
// TONIGHT'S MATCHUP
Our track record
settled S/A/B picks on Mickey Moniak, by confidence tier| Tier | Record | Hit rate | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| S | 7-6 | 54% | -5.5% |
| A | 4-6 | 40% | -22.6% |
| B | 0-6 | 0% | -100.0% |
Combined 11-18 · n=29 · ROI -31.0% · avg CLV -1.5 pts · beat close 9%
Matchup
Mickey Moniak (LHB) vs Robbie Ray LHPfavors batterfavors pitcherPitch-type matchup
Robbie Ray's arsenal × how Mickey Moniak hits it · since 2025 · TOP = batter's spotxwOBA = expected wOBA from exit velo + launch angle. Green favors the batter, red favors the pitcher.
Hit-rate history
per-game results vs the line · green = over · red = underRecent form
per-game over the last 10Avg PA3.8Plate Appearancesavg 3.8
Hitsavg 0.5
Singlesavg 0.2
Doublesavg 0.1
Total Basesavg 1.1
Home Runsavg 0.1
Strikeoutsavg 1.5
Walksavg 0.1
Tonight's lines
2026-09-16 · every line we grade — bet any, not just the headline · BEST = best edge · Move = open→now (CLV once settled)Splits
Career n=424 PA · 2026-03-17 → 2026-09-14
xStats luck
xwOBA0.278
wOBA0.322
delta+0.044 hot
n=423 PA
Spray chart
613 balls in play since 2025· wind 12 mph blowing inBalls in play613
HR rate7.2%
Hard-hit (95+)41%
Avg exit velo89.4 mph
Ground ball34%
Line drive23%
Fly ball36%
What kind of arm does he crush?
top 3 pitcher traits by |lift|
-26.7%significant
n=257 games · 17/131 HR when active
+0.0%small sample
n=0 games · 0/0 HR when active
+0.0%small sample
n=0 games · 0/0 HR when active
// PLAYER DNA
HR signature· refreshed 2026-05-21
// TONIGHT
1 / 3HELPING · IN PLAY
Mixed signals tonight
// IN PLAY TONIGHT
- +40% HR rate when playing at home.
- −30% HR rate when no rest day (b2b or doubleheader).
- −27% HR rate when vs high-contact-quality pitcher (avg ev allowed ≥ 89 mph).
helping tonighthurting tonightnot in play tonight
Rested (2+ days off)
+47%
25 yes / 231 no · 40 HRs
Playing at hometonight
+40%
137 yes / 120 no · 41 HRs
No rest day (B2B or doubleheader)tonight
−30%
174 yes / 82 no · 40 HRs
Vs. high-contact-quality pitcher (avg EV allowed ≥ 89 mph)tonight
−27%
131 yes / 126 no · 41 HRs
Summer game (Jun-Aug)
+24%
121 yes / 136 no · 41 HRs
HR-suppressing park (factor ≤ 0.95)
−23%
23 yes / 234 no · 41 HRs
// 6 more factors — small sample / no significant lift
HR-friendly park (factor ≥ 1.10)
+14%
109 yes / 148 no · 41 HRs
Cold month (Apr / Sep / Oct)
neutral
51 yes / 206 no · 41 HRs
Vs. low-whiff pitcher (whiff% < 22%)
neutral
0 yes / 0 no · 0 HRs
Vs. hittable pitcher (BAA > .260)
neutral
0 yes / 0 no · 0 HRs
Vs. fastball-heavy pitcher (FB% ≥ 55%)
neutral
0 yes / 0 no · 0 HRs
Vs. high-xwOBA pitcher (xwOBA allowed > .340)
neutral
0 yes / 0 no · 0 HRs
// LIFT = P(HR | factor true) ÷ P(HR | factor false), Bayesian- shrunk with K=30 pseudo-games. Significance requires |lift − 1| ≥ 0.20 AND smaller cohort n ≥ 15. Cohort = top 60 HR hitters, last 2 seasons. Refreshed weekly. Green/red = the factor's effect on tonight's HR chance; gray = not in play tonight.
Last 10 games
Per-game outcomes — most recent first.
Nearest neighbors
Top 10 hitters most similar to Mickey Moniak across 38 features. Comp Lab uses these for small-sample BvP matchups.
Comp data temporarily unavailable.