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Mickey Moniak
LF · LHB · RHP
// TONIGHT'S MATCHUP
Our track record
settled S/A/B picks on Mickey Moniak, by confidence tier| Tier | Record | Hit rate | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| S | 3-4 | 43% | -34.4% |
| A | 3-6 | 33% | -43.3% |
| B | 0-3 | 0% | -100.0% |
Combined 6-13 · n=19 · ROI -49.0% · avg CLV -1.2 pts · beat close 25%
Matchup
Mickey Moniak (LHB) vs Blake Snell LHPfavors batterfavors pitcherPitch-type matchup
Blake Snell's arsenal × how Mickey Moniak hits it · since 2025 · TOP = batter's spotxwOBA = expected wOBA from exit velo + launch angle. Green favors the batter, red favors the pitcher.
Hit-rate history
per-game results vs the line · green = over · red = underRecent form
per-game over the last 10Avg PA3.7Plate Appearancesavg 3.7
Hitsavg 0.5
Singlesavg 0.4
Doublesavg 0.1
Total Basesavg 0.6
Home Runsavg 0.0
Strikeoutsavg 1.2
Walksavg 0.3
Tonight's lines
2026-08-18 · every line we grade — bet any, not just the headline · BEST = best edge · Move = open→now (CLV once settled)Splits
Career n=1,579 PA · 2023-05-13 → 2026-08-14
xStats luck
xwOBA0.302
wOBA0.350
delta+0.048 hot
n=330 PA
Spray chart
560 balls in play since 2025· wind 5 mph cross-windBalls in play560
HR rate7.3%
Hard-hit (95+)42%
Avg exit velo89.3 mph
Ground ball34%
Line drive23%
Fly ball37%
What kind of arm does he crush?
top 3 pitcher traits by |lift|
-26.7%significant
n=257 games · 17/131 HR when active
+0.0%small sample
n=0 games · 0/0 HR when active
+0.0%small sample
n=0 games · 0/0 HR when active
// PLAYER DNA
HR signature· refreshed 2026-05-21
// TONIGHT
2 / 2HELPING · IN PLAY
Leaning favorable
// IN PLAY TONIGHT
- +40% HR rate when playing at home.
- +24% HR rate when summer game (jun-aug).
helping tonighthurting tonightnot in play tonight
Rested (2+ days off)
+47%
25 yes / 231 no · 40 HRs
Playing at hometonight
+40%
137 yes / 120 no · 41 HRs
No rest day (B2B or doubleheader)
−30%
174 yes / 82 no · 40 HRs
Vs. high-contact-quality pitcher (avg EV allowed ≥ 89 mph)
−27%
131 yes / 126 no · 41 HRs
Summer game (Jun-Aug)tonight
+24%
121 yes / 136 no · 41 HRs
HR-suppressing park (factor ≤ 0.95)
−23%
23 yes / 234 no · 41 HRs
// 6 more factors — small sample / no significant lift
HR-friendly park (factor ≥ 1.10)
+14%
109 yes / 148 no · 41 HRs
Cold month (Apr / Sep / Oct)
neutral
51 yes / 206 no · 41 HRs
Vs. low-whiff pitcher (whiff% < 22%)
neutral
0 yes / 0 no · 0 HRs
Vs. hittable pitcher (BAA > .260)
neutral
0 yes / 0 no · 0 HRs
Vs. fastball-heavy pitcher (FB% ≥ 55%)
neutral
0 yes / 0 no · 0 HRs
Vs. high-xwOBA pitcher (xwOBA allowed > .340)
neutral
0 yes / 0 no · 0 HRs
// LIFT = P(HR | factor true) ÷ P(HR | factor false), Bayesian- shrunk with K=30 pseudo-games. Significance requires |lift − 1| ≥ 0.20 AND smaller cohort n ≥ 15. Cohort = top 60 HR hitters, last 2 seasons. Refreshed weekly. Green/red = the factor's effect on tonight's HR chance; gray = not in play tonight.
Last 10 games
Per-game outcomes — most recent first.
Nearest neighbors
Top 10 hitters most similar to Mickey Moniak across 38 features. Comp Lab uses these for small-sample BvP matchups.
Comp data temporarily unavailable.