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Bryan Reynolds
LF · SHB · RHP · PIT
// TONIGHT'S MATCHUP
Tonight's top play
Home Runs OVER 0.5+5.0% edgemodel 18% · grade A
Why: strong vs the Four-Seam (28% usage, .477 xwOBA).
Verdict
one call per prop — does the model agree with recent reality?Our track record
settled S/A/B picks on Bryan Reynolds, by confidence tier| Tier | Record | Hit rate | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| S | 7-7 | 50% | +14.8% |
| A | 8-8 | 50% | -0.2% |
| B | 3-7 | 30% | -23.4% |
Combined 18-22 · n=40 · ROI -0.8% · avg CLV -0.3 pts · beat close 32%
Matchup
Bryan Reynolds (SHB) vs Michael Wacha RHPfavors batterfavors pitcherPitch-type matchup
Michael Wacha's arsenal × how Bryan Reynolds hits it · since 2025 · TOP = batter's spotxwOBA = expected wOBA from exit velo + launch angle. Green favors the batter, red favors the pitcher.
Hit-rate history
per-game results vs the line · green = over · red = underRecent form
per-game over the last 10Avg PA4.4Plate Appearancesavg 4.4
Hitsavg 0.7
Singlesavg 0.3
Doublesavg 0.3
Total Basesavg 1.3
Home Runsavg 0.1
Strikeoutsavg 1.0
Walksavg 0.2
Tonight's lines
2026-09-20 · every line we grade — bet any, not just the headline · BEST = best edge · Move = open→now (CLV once settled)Same-game parlay
pick 2+ — we price the correlation the book won'tSplits
Career n=691 PA · 2026-03-15 → 2026-09-18
xStats luck
xwOBA0.352
wOBA0.349
delta−0.003 due
n=691 PA
Spray chart
855 balls in play since 2025· wind 6 mph blowing outBalls in play855
HR rate4.0%
Hard-hit (95+)49%
Avg exit velo91.3 mph
Ground ball47%
Line drive26%
Fly ball25%
What kind of arm does he crush?
top 3 pitcher traits by |lift|
+12.9%small sample
n=336 games · 22/164 HR when active
+0.0%small sample
n=0 games · 0/0 HR when active
+0.0%small sample
n=0 games · 0/0 HR when active
// PLAYER DNA
HR signature· refreshed 2026-05-21
// TONIGHT
0 / 1HELPING · IN PLAY
Leaning against
// IN PLAY TONIGHT
- −23% HR rate when no rest day (b2b or doubleheader).
helping tonighthurting tonightnot in play tonight
HR-friendly park (factor ≥ 1.10)
1.68× HR rate
44 yes / 293 no · 42 HRs
No rest day (B2B or doubleheader)tonight
−23%
261 yes / 75 no · 42 HRs
// 10 more factors — small sample / no significant lift
Cold month (Apr / Sep / Oct)
+15%
100 yes / 237 no · 42 HRs
Vs. high-contact-quality pitcher (avg EV allowed ≥ 89 mph)
+13%
164 yes / 172 no · 42 HRs
Rested (2+ days off)
+12%
19 yes / 317 no · 42 HRs
Summer game (Jun-Aug)
−6%
142 yes / 195 no · 42 HRs
Playing at home
neutral
173 yes / 164 no · 42 HRs
HR-suppressing park (factor ≤ 0.95)
neutral
196 yes / 141 no · 42 HRs
Vs. fastball-heavy pitcher (FB% ≥ 55%)
neutral
0 yes / 0 no · 0 HRs
Vs. hittable pitcher (BAA > .260)
neutral
0 yes / 0 no · 0 HRs
Vs. high-xwOBA pitcher (xwOBA allowed > .340)
neutral
0 yes / 0 no · 0 HRs
Vs. low-whiff pitcher (whiff% < 22%)
neutral
0 yes / 0 no · 0 HRs
// LIFT = P(HR | factor true) ÷ P(HR | factor false), Bayesian- shrunk with K=30 pseudo-games. Significance requires |lift − 1| ≥ 0.20 AND smaller cohort n ≥ 15. Cohort = top 60 HR hitters, last 2 seasons. Refreshed weekly. Green/red = the factor's effect on tonight's HR chance; gray = not in play tonight.
Last 10 games
Per-game outcomes — most recent first.
Nearest neighbors
Top 10 hitters most similar to Bryan Reynolds across 38 features. Comp Lab uses these for small-sample BvP matchups.
Comp data temporarily unavailable.