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Bryan Reynolds
LF · SHB · RHP · PIT
Our track record
settled S/A/B picks on Bryan Reynolds, by confidence tier| Tier | Record | Hit rate | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| S | 1-1 | 50% | -23.5% |
| A | 1-1 | 50% | -25.5% |
| B | 5-0 | 100% | +168.2% |
Combined 7-2 · n=9 · ROI +82.6% · avg CLV +0.2 pts · beat close 25%
Splits
Career n=2,371 PA · 2023-03-30 → 2026-06-20
xStats luck
xwOBA0.345
wOBA0.359
delta+0.014 hot
n=348 PA
Spray chart
644 balls in play since 2025Balls in play644
HR rate4.2%
Hard-hit (95+)48%
Avg exit velo91.6 mph
Ground ball49%
Line drive27%
Fly ball23%
// PLAYER DNA
HR signature· refreshed 2026-05-21
HR-friendly park (factor ≥ 1.10)
1.68× HR rate
44 yes / 293 no · 42 HRs
No rest day (B2B or doubleheader)
−23%
261 yes / 75 no · 42 HRs
// 10 more factors — small sample / no significant lift
Cold month (Apr / Sep / Oct)
+15%
100 yes / 237 no · 42 HRs
Vs. high-contact-quality pitcher (avg EV allowed ≥ 89 mph)
+13%
164 yes / 172 no · 42 HRs
Rested (2+ days off)
+12%
19 yes / 317 no · 42 HRs
Summer game (Jun-Aug)
−6%
142 yes / 195 no · 42 HRs
Playing at home
neutral
173 yes / 164 no · 42 HRs
HR-suppressing park (factor ≤ 0.95)
neutral
196 yes / 141 no · 42 HRs
Vs. fastball-heavy pitcher (FB% ≥ 55%)
neutral
0 yes / 0 no · 0 HRs
Vs. hittable pitcher (BAA > .260)
neutral
0 yes / 0 no · 0 HRs
Vs. high-xwOBA pitcher (xwOBA allowed > .340)
neutral
0 yes / 0 no · 0 HRs
Vs. low-whiff pitcher (whiff% < 22%)
neutral
0 yes / 0 no · 0 HRs
// LIFT = P(HR | factor true) ÷ P(HR | factor false), Bayesian- shrunk with K=30 pseudo-games. Significance requires |lift − 1| ≥ 0.20 AND smaller cohort n ≥ 15. Cohort = top 60 HR hitters, last 2 seasons. Refreshed weekly.
Last 10 games
Per-game outcomes — most recent first.
Nearest neighbors
Top 10 hitters most similar to Bryan Reynolds across 38 features. Comp Lab uses these for small-sample BvP matchups.
Comp data temporarily unavailable.