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Stadium
Citizens Bank Park
Tonight's top play
Home Runs OVER 0.5 +5.4% edge model 18% · grade A
Why: strong vs the Four-Seam (53% usage, .403 xwOBA).
Verdict one call per prop — does the model agree with recent reality? Prop Pick Model Edge L10 Verdict Home Runs OVER 0.5 18% +5.4% 10% CAUTION Hits OVER 0.5 68% +3.9% 50% LEAN
Our track record settled S/A/B picks on Brandon Marsh, by confidence tier Tier Record Hit rate ROI S 4-3 57% -4.9% A 1-2 33% -14.7% B 2-4 33% -22.8%
Combined 7-9 · n=16 · ROI -13.4% · avg CLV -0.2 pts · beat close 33%
Matchup Brandon Marsh (LHB) vs Freddy Peralta RHP favors batter favors pitcher Freddy Peralta RHP · season · 83.3 IP · 358 BF
Brandon Marsh hitting
Split H-AB BA SLG ISO HR BB% K% Season 431-1607 .268 .432 .164 50 10.2% 31.9% vs RHP 352-1250 .282 .461 .179 43 10.3% 29.8%
Pitch-type matchup Freddy Peralta's arsenal × how Brandon Marsh hits it · since 2025 · TOP = batter's spot Freddy Peralta throws
Pitch Usage Velo Whiff xwOBA TOP Four-Seam53% 94.5 20% .388 TOP Changeup21% 88.5 30% .296 TOP Curveball12% 79.5 31% .334 Slider 10% 83.5 48% .337 Slow Curve 2% 74.8 38% .363 Sweeper 1% 80.2 54% .067
Brandon Marsh vs each
Pitch Seen Whiff xwOBA EV TOP Four-Seam923 16% .403 92.3 TOP Changeup218 25% .369 86.5 TOP Curveball223 32% .419 90.8 Slider 372 26% .415 86.6 Slow Curve 2 100% — — Sweeper 161 30% .398 87.2
xwOBA = expected wOBA from exit velo + launch angle. Green favors the batter, red favors the pitcher.
Hit-rate history per-game results vs the line · green = over · red = under Hits50% Total Bases40% Home Runs10% Singles30% Doubles20% Triples0% Strikeouts90% Walks20% RBIs40% Runs Scored40% Hits + Runs + RBIs60% Stolen Bases20%
50% 5/10 · L10 · avg 0.8
Our model 68% OVER +3.9% edge B
0 @TOR 06-08 1 @TOR 06-09 0 @TOR 06-10 0 @MIL 06-12 3 @MIL 06-13 0 @MIL 06-14 2 vMIA 06-15 1 vMIA 06-16 1 vMIA 06-17 0 vNYM 06-18
L5 60% 3/5 L10 50% 5/10 L20 65% 13/20 2026 69% 58/84 2025 53% 73/138
Recent form per-game over the last 10 Avg PA 4.2 Plate Appearances avg 4.2
4 4 5 3 5 4 5 4 4 4 Total Bases avg 1.3
0 2 0 0 3 0 3 4 1 0 Home Runs avg 0.1
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 Strikeouts avg 1.6
1 3 1 2 0 1 2 1 2 3
Tonight's lines 2026-06-20 · every line we grade — bet any, not just the headline · BEST = best edge · Move = open→now (CLV once settled) Doubles + Triples
Line Side Grade Model Edge Odds Move Track 0.5 — B 9% — +440 +0.0 —
Hits
Line Side Grade Model Edge Odds Move Track BEST 0.5OVER B 68% +3.9% -182 +0.4 Sign in 1.5 OVER PASS 27% +1.5% +300 -5.3 Sign in 2.5 OVER PASS 4% -4.2% +1100 +0.0 Sign in
Home Runs
Line Side Grade Model Edge Odds Move Track BEST 0.5OVER A 18% +5.4% +699 +0.6 Sign in
Singles
Line Side Grade Model Edge Odds Move Track 0.5 — PASS 47% — +107 +0.5 —
Total Bases
Line Side Grade Model Edge Odds Move Track 1.5 — A 44% — +160 +0.7 —
Same-game parlay pick 2+ — we price the correlation the book won't -182 +300 +1100 +699
Price legs
Splits Career n=1,789 PA · 2023-03-30 → 2026-06-18
Split H-AB BA SLG ISO 2B 3B HR BB K% Career
all history
431-1607 .268 .432 .164 86 14 50 182 31.9% vs LHP
left-handed pitching
79-357 .221 .333 .112 11 4 7 38 38.9% vs RHP
right-handed pitching
352-1250 .282 .461 .179 75 10 43 144 29.8% Last 15 days
recent form
13-51 .255 .549 .294 3 0 4 4 37.3% vs Freddy Peralta
tonight's starting pitcher
0-6 .000 .000 .000 0 0 0 0 66.7% vs NYM
tonight's opponent (full roster)
7-40 .175 .250 .075 3 0 0 4 42.5% @ Citizens Bank Park
tonight's stadium
2486-6456 .385 .688 .303 273 48 528 414 36.6%
xStats luck
xwOBA 0.314
wOBA 0.346
delta +0.032 hot
n=288 PA
Spray chart 498 balls in play since 2025 · wind 13 mph cross-wind All vLHP vRHP
Match Freddy Peralta's mix Balls in play 498
HR rate 4.2%
Hard-hit (95+) 43%
Avg exit velo 89.6 mph
Ground ball 42%
Line drive 28%
Fly ball 26%
// PLAYER DNA
HR signature matrix hasn't been computed for this player yet. The weekly cron refreshes every Tuesday — check back if this player has joined the top-60 HR cohort.
Last 10 games Per-game outcomes — most recent first.
Date PA H 2B 3B HR BB K Outcomes 2026-06-18 4 0 0 0 0 0 3 0-for-4 · 3 K 2026-06-17 4 1 0 0 0 0 2 1-for-4 · 1 RBI · 2 K 2026-06-16 4 1 0 0 1 1 1 1-for-3 · 1 HR · 2 RBI · 2 R · 1 SB · 1 BB · 1 K 2026-06-15 5 2 1 0 0 0 2 2-for-5 · 1 2B · 1 R · 2 K 2026-06-14 4 0 0 0 0 0 1 0-for-4 · 1 K 2026-06-13 5 3 0 0 0 0 0 3-for-5 · 1 RBI · 2 R · 1 SB 2026-06-12 3 0 0 0 0 0 2 0-for-3 · 2 K 2026-06-10 5 0 0 0 0 1 1 0-for-4 · 1 BB · 1 K 2026-06-09 4 1 1 0 0 0 3 1-for-4 · 1 2B · 1 RBI · 3 K 2026-06-08 4 0 0 0 0 0 1 0-for-4 · 1 R · 1 K
Nearest neighbors Top 10 hitters most similar to Brandon Marsh across 38 features. Comp Lab uses these for small-sample BvP matchups.
Comp data temporarily unavailable.
