Brandon Marsh

LF · LHB · RHP · PHI

// TONIGHT'S MATCHUP

Away @

NYM

Starter

Zac Thornton (LHP)

Stadium

Citi Field

Model HR%

12.8%

Our track record

settled S/A/B picks on Brandon Marsh, by confidence tier

Tier	Record	Hit rate	ROI
S	14-12	54%	+4.4%
A	14-9	61%	+46.2%
B	4-19	17%	-50.9%

Combined 32-40 · n=72 · ROI +0.1% · avg CLV -1.0 pts · beat close 43%

Matchup

Brandon Marsh (LHB) vs Zac Thornton LHPfavors batterfavors pitcher

Zac Thornton LHP · season · 71.9 IP · 309 BF

BAA

.247

wOBA

.328

SLG

.406

ISO

.158

WHIP

1.25

HR/9

1.50

BB%

5.8%

18.1%

Whiff%

—

Barrel%

3.5%

HH%

41.6%

FB%

35.0%

HR/FB%

15.2%

Brandon Marsh hitting

Split	H-AB	BA	SLG	ISO	HR	BB%	K%
Season	482-1858	.259	.418	.158	58	9.8%	31.1%
vs LHP	88-412	.214	.328	.114	9	8.8%	39.3%

Pitch-type matchup

Zac Thornton's arsenal × how Brandon Marsh hits it · since 2025 · TOP = batter's spot

Zac Thornton throws

Pitch	Usage	Velo	Whiff	xwOBA
TOPCutter	47%	85.2	14%	.698
TOPFour-Seam	31%	91.4	0%	.279
Sinker	11%	91.2	0%	—
Sweeper	6%	79.5	40%	.376
Splitter	2%	82.2	0%	—
Curveball	1%	73.9	—	—
Changeup	1%	82.7	0%	—

Brandon Marsh vs each

Pitch	Seen	Whiff	xwOBA	EV
TOPCutter	177	23%	.372	91.8
TOPFour-Seam	923	16%	.403	92.3
Sinker	318	10%	.450	91.5
Sweeper	161	30%	.398	87.2
Splitter	93	25%	.366	88.5
Curveball	223	32%	.419	90.8
Changeup	218	25%	.369	86.5

xwOBA = expected wOBA from exit velo + launch angle. Green favors the batter, red favors the pitcher.

Hit-rate history

per-game results vs the line · green = over · red = under

OVER

0.5

Hits

40%4/10 · L10 · avg 0.4

Recent form

per-game over the last 10Avg PA2.7

Plate Appearancesavg 2.7

Hitsavg 0.4

Singlesavg 0.3

Doublesavg 0.1

Total Basesavg 0.5

Home Runsavg 0.0

Strikeoutsavg 0.5

Walksavg 0.0

Tonight's lines

2026-09-18 · every line we grade — bet any, not just the headline · BEST = best edge · Move = open→now (CLV once settled)

Home Runs

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Save	Track
0.5	UNDER	PASS	87%	—	—	—	Sign in to save	Sign in

Splits

Career n=2,059 PA · 2023-03-30 → 2026-09-16

Season Career

Split	H-AB	BA	SLG	ISO	2B	3B	HR	BB	K%
Career all history	482-1858	.259	.418	.158	92	14	58	201	31.1%
vs LHP left-handed pitching	88-412	.214	.328	.114	12	4	9	40	39.3%
vs RHP right-handed pitching	394-1446	.272	.443	.171	80	10	49	161	28.7%
Last 15 days recent form	3-24	.125	.167	.042	1	0	0	0	16.7%
vs NYM tonight's opponent (full roster)	7-43	.163	.256	.093	4	0	0	4	30.2%
@ Citi Field tonight's stadium	565-1672	.338	.462	.124	208	0	0	0	37.6%

xStats luck

xwOBA0.294

wOBA0.302

delta+0.008 hot

n=558 PA

Spray chart

684 balls in play since 2025

Balls in play684

HR rate4.2%

Hard-hit (95+)41%

Avg exit velo88.7 mph

Ground ball42%

Line drive27%

Fly ball26%

// PLAYER DNA

HR signature matrix hasn't been computed for this player yet. The weekly cron refreshes every Tuesday — check back if this player has joined the top-60 HR cohort.

Last 10 games

Per-game outcomes — most recent first.

Date	PA	H	2B	K	Outcomes
2026-09-17	4	1	0	1	1-for-4 · 1 R · 1 K
2026-09-16	4	0	0	1	0-for-4 · 1 K
2026-09-13	2	0	0	0	0-for-2 · 1 R
2026-09-12	3	0	0	0	0-for-3
2026-09-11	1	0	0	0	0-for-1
2026-09-10	3	0	0	2	0-for-3 · 2 K
2026-09-09	2	1	0	0	1-for-2
2026-09-08	3	1	1	1	1-for-3 · 1 2B · 1 RBI · 1 K
2026-09-07	3	1	0	0	1-for-3
2026-09-06	2	0	0	0	0-for-2

Nearest neighbors

Top 10 hitters most similar to Brandon Marsh across 38 features. Comp Lab uses these for small-sample BvP matchups.

Comp data temporarily unavailable.