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Yordan Alvarez
DH · LHB · RHP · HOU
// TONIGHT'S MATCHUP
Tonight's top play
Home Runs OVER 0.5+6.5% edgemodel 32% · grade A
Why: Vs. fastball-heavy pitcher (FB% ≥ 55%): +25.5% lift over 163 games · strong vs the Four-Seam (45% usage, .527 xwOBA).
Verdict
one call per prop — does the model agree with recent reality?Our track record
settled S/A/B picks on Yordan Alvarez, by confidence tier| Tier | Record | Hit rate | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| S | 5-3 | 63% | +8.4% |
| A | 2-3 | 40% | -5.2% |
| B | 3-0 | 100% | +34.8% |
Combined 10-6 · n=16 · ROI +9.1% · avg CLV -7.0 pts · beat close 45%
Matchup
Yordan Alvarez (LHB) vs Jacob deGrom RHPfavors batterfavors pitcherPitch-type matchup
Jacob deGrom's arsenal × how Yordan Alvarez hits it · since 2025 · TOP = batter's spotxwOBA = expected wOBA from exit velo + launch angle. Green favors the batter, red favors the pitcher.
Hit-rate history
per-game results vs the line · green = over · red = underRecent form
per-game over the last 10Avg PA4.5Plate Appearancesavg 4.5
Hitsavg 1.3
Singlesavg 0.9
Doublesavg 0.0
Total Basesavg 2.5
Home Runsavg 0.4
Strikeoutsavg 0.9
Walksavg 0.9
Tonight's lines
2026-08-01 · every line we grade — bet any, not just the headline · BEST = best edge · Move = open→now (CLV once settled)Same-game parlay
pick 2+ — we price the correlation the book won'tSplits
Career n=487 PA · 2026-03-15 → 2026-07-29
xStats luck
xwOBA0.466
wOBA0.442
delta−0.024 due
n=486 PA
Spray chart
464 balls in play since 2025· wind 7 mph blowing inBalls in play464
HR rate8.4%
Hard-hit (95+)55%
Avg exit velo95.1 mph
Ground ball32%
Line drive27%
Fly ball36%
What kind of arm does he crush?
top 3 pitcher traits by |lift|
+25.5%significant
n=294 games · 41/163 HR when active
-18.3%small sample
n=310 games · 29/147 HR when active
-17.4%small sample
n=291 games · 9/51 HR when active
// PLAYER DNA
HR signature· refreshed 2026-07-28
// TONIGHT
2 / 2HELPING · IN PLAY
Leaning favorable
// IN PLAY TONIGHT
- +25% HR rate when vs fastball-heavy pitcher (fb% ≥ 55%).
- +25% HR rate when platoon advantage (lhb-vs-rhp or rhb-vs-lhp).
helping tonighthurting tonightnot in play tonight
HR-friendly park (factor ≥ 1.10)
1.55× HR rate
35 yes / 275 no · 70 HRs
Vs. fastball-heavy pitcher (FB% ≥ 55%)tonight
+25%
163 yes / 131 no · 66 HRs
Platoon advantage (LHB-vs-RHP or RHB-vs-LHP)tonight
+25%
167 yes / 50 no · 57 HRs
Rested (2+ days off)
−21%
18 yes / 292 no · 69 HRs
Cold month (Apr / Sep / Oct)
+20%
121 yes / 190 no · 70 HRs
// 23 more factors — small sample / no significant lift
Vs. high-contact-quality pitcher (avg EV allowed ≥ 89 mph)
−18%
147 yes / 163 no · 70 HRs
Opposing starter coming off >7 days rest
−17%
51 yes / 240 no · 66 HRs
Vs. hittable pitcher (BAA > .260)
−17%
56 yes / 254 no · 70 HRs
≥1 career HR vs this pitcher
+16%
44 yes / 267 no · 70 HRs
≥3 career HRs vs this pitcher
+16%
4 yes / 307 no · 70 HRs
Playing at home
−16%
167 yes / 144 no · 70 HRs
Batting 3-4-5 in the order
+15%
169 yes / 142 no · 70 HRs
Hot streak (L5 avg EV > career baseline)
−14%
184 yes / 122 no · 68 HRs
Wind blowing out (≥10 mph, outdoor)
−13%
4 yes / 296 no · 69 HRs
≥2 career HRs vs this pitcher
+13%
13 yes / 298 no · 70 HRs
Vs. pull-fly-ball-prone pitcher (>18%)
+11%
225 yes / 83 no · 70 HRs
Vs. short-leash starter (avg IP < 5.0)
−11%
116 yes / 188 no · 69 HRs
Vs. HR-prone pitcher (HR/PA > 3.8%)
+11%
59 yes / 249 no · 70 HRs
Vs. high-xwOBA pitcher (xwOBA allowed > .340)
+9%
52 yes / 257 no · 70 HRs
Opposing starter's recent FB velo down ≥1 mph
+8%
50 yes / 205 no · 65 HRs
3rd time through order vs starter
+7%
212 yes / 99 no · 70 HRs
Vs. fly-ball-prone pitcher (FB% allowed > 40%)
neutral
47 yes / 261 no · 70 HRs
Summer game (Jun-Aug)
neutral
90 yes / 221 no · 70 HRs
No rest day (B2B or doubleheader)
neutral
236 yes / 74 no · 69 HRs
HR-suppressing park (factor ≤ 0.95)
neutral
37 yes / 273 no · 70 HRs
First-pitch temperature > 78°F
neutral
91 yes / 209 no · 69 HRs
Vs. barrel-prone pitcher (Barrel% allowed > 9%)
neutral
0 yes / 308 no · 70 HRs
Vs. low-whiff pitcher (whiff% < 22%)
neutral
0 yes / 0 no · 0 HRs
// LIFT = P(HR | factor true) ÷ P(HR | factor false), Bayesian- shrunk with K=30 pseudo-games. Significance requires |lift − 1| ≥ 0.20 AND smaller cohort n ≥ 15. Cohort = top 60 HR hitters, last 2 seasons. Refreshed weekly. Green/red = the factor's effect on tonight's HR chance; gray = not in play tonight.
Last 10 games
Per-game outcomes — most recent first.
Nearest neighbors
Top 10 hitters most similar to Yordan Alvarez across 38 features. Comp Lab uses these for small-sample BvP matchups.
Comp data temporarily unavailable.