Yordan Alvarez

DH · LHB · RHP · HOU

// TONIGHT'S MATCHUP

Home vs

Starter

Michael Wacha (RHP)

Stadium

Daikin Park

Model HR%

26.6%

Our track record

settled S/A/B picks on Yordan Alvarez, by confidence tier

Tier	Record	Hit rate	ROI
S	6-6	50%	+0.0%
A	5-9	36%	-35.5%
B	3-4	43%	-42.0%

Combined 14-19 · n=33 · ROI -24.0% · avg CLV -4.5 pts · beat close 44%

Matchup

Yordan Alvarez (LHB) vs Michael Wacha RHPfavors batterfavors pitcher

Michael Wacha RHP · season · 180.2 IP · 775 BF

BAA

.229

wOBA

.308

SLG

.406

ISO

.177

WHIP

1.23

HR/9

1.30

BB%

7.5%

20.1%

Whiff%

—

Barrel%

2.8%

HH%

37.3%

FB%

38.7%

HR/FB%

13.5%

Yordan Alvarez hitting

Split	H-AB	BA	SLG	ISO	HR	BB%	K%
Season	525-1760	.298	.558	.260	116	15.0%	20.6%
vs RHP	349-1195	.292	.565	.273	86	17.0%	20.3%

Pitch-type matchup

Michael Wacha's arsenal × how Yordan Alvarez hits it · since 2025 · TOP = batter's spot

Michael Wacha throws

Pitch	Usage	Velo	Whiff	xwOBA
TOPFour-Seam	28%	93.0	16%	.389
TOPChangeup	24%	80.0	28%	.297
TOPCutter	15%	88.4	15%	.372
TOPSinker	14%	93.1	11%	.396
Slider	11%	84.8	28%	.372
Curveball	8%	75.4	31%	.344

Yordan Alvarez vs each

Pitch	Seen	Whiff	xwOBA	EV
TOPFour-Seam	555	11%	.527	96.9
TOPChangeup	211	24%	.515	93.6
TOPCutter	188	24%	.412	94.0
TOPSinker	233	10%	.480	97.0
Slider	220	29%	.507	92.2
Curveball	124	34%	.717	92.4

xwOBA = expected wOBA from exit velo + launch angle. Green favors the batter, red favors the pitcher.

Hit-rate history

per-game results vs the line · green = over · red = under

OVER

0.5

Hits

50%5/10 · L10 · avg 0.8

Recent form

per-game over the last 10Avg PA4.2

Plate Appearancesavg 4.2

Hitsavg 0.8

Singlesavg 0.4

Doublesavg 0.2

Total Basesavg 1.6

Home Runsavg 0.2

Strikeoutsavg 0.9

Walksavg 0.7

Tonight's lines

2026-09-16 · every line we grade — bet any, not just the headline · BEST = best edge · Move = open→now (CLV once settled)

Home Runs

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Save	Track
0.5	UNDER	PASS	75%	—	—	—	Sign in to save	Sign in

Splits

Career n=2,070 PA · 2023-03-30 → 2026-09-13

Season Career

Split	H-AB	BA	SLG	ISO	2B	3B	HR	BB	K%
Career all history	525-1760	.298	.558	.260	99	5	116	310	20.6%
vs LHP left-handed pitching	176-565	.312	.543	.232	33	4	30	65	21.1%
vs RHP right-handed pitching	349-1195	.292	.565	.273	66	1	86	245	20.3%
Last 15 days recent form	7-34	.206	.353	.147	2	0	1	8	32.4%
@ Daikin Park tonight's stadium	3451-11347	.304	.602	.298	1471	0	635	2955	19.9%

xStats luck

xwOBA0.444

wOBA0.425

delta−0.019 due

n=651 PA

Spray chart

565 balls in play since 2025· wind 5 mph blowing out

Balls in play565

HR rate7.4%

Hard-hit (95+)54%

Avg exit velo94.5 mph

Ground ball32%

Line drive27%

Fly ball35%

What kind of arm does he crush?

top 3 pitcher traits by |lift|

Vs. fastball-heavy pitcher (FB% ≥ 55%)

+29.7%significant

n=334 games · 44/185 HR when active

Opposing starter coming off >7 days rest

-19.6%small sample

n=333 games · 9/56 HR when active

Vs. high-contact-quality pitcher (avg EV allowed ≥ 89 mph)

-17.7%small sample

n=351 games · 30/162 HR when active

// PLAYER DNA

HR signature· refreshed 2026-09-15

// TONIGHT

1 / 1HELPING · IN PLAY

Leaning favorable

// IN PLAY TONIGHT

+24% HR rate when cold month (apr / sep / oct).

helping tonighthurting tonightnot in play tonight

HR-friendly park (factor ≥ 1.10)

+47%

41 yes / 310 no · 74 HRs

Vs. fastball-heavy pitcher (FB% ≥ 55%)

+30%

185 yes / 149 no · 70 HRs

Batting 3-4-5 in the order

+29%

169 yes / 183 no · 74 HRs

Cold month (Apr / Sep / Oct)tonight

+24%

131 yes / 221 no · 74 HRs

Rested (2+ days off)

−21%

19 yes / 332 no · 73 HRs

// 23 more factors — small sample / no significant lift

Opposing starter coming off >7 days rest

−20%

56 yes / 277 no · 71 HRs

Vs. high-contact-quality pitcher (avg EV allowed ≥ 89 mph)

−18%

162 yes / 189 no · 74 HRs

Playing at home

−16%

189 yes / 163 no · 74 HRs

Vs. hittable pitcher (BAA > .260)

−15%

63 yes / 288 no · 74 HRs

Wind blowing out (≥10 mph, outdoor)

−13%

4 yes / 337 no · 73 HRs

Vs. short-leash starter (avg IP < 5.0)

−13%

131 yes / 214 no · 73 HRs

Platoon advantage (LHB-vs-RHP or RHB-vs-LHP)

+13%

196 yes / 57 no · 61 HRs

Vs. high-xwOBA pitcher (xwOBA allowed > .340)

+12%

58 yes / 292 no · 74 HRs

≥3 career HRs vs this pitcher

+11%

6 yes / 346 no · 74 HRs

≥1 career HR vs this pitcher

+9%

51 yes / 301 no · 74 HRs

Hot streak (L5 avg EV > career baseline)

−9%

197 yes / 150 no · 72 HRs

Vs. HR-prone pitcher (HR/PA > 3.8%)

+8%

56 yes / 293 no · 74 HRs

Vs. pull-fly-ball-prone pitcher (>18%)

+8%

253 yes / 96 no · 74 HRs

≥2 career HRs vs this pitcher

+7%

16 yes / 336 no · 74 HRs

Opposing starter's recent FB velo down ≥1 mph

+7%

53 yes / 231 no · 69 HRs

Vs. fly-ball-prone pitcher (FB% allowed > 40%)

−7%

52 yes / 297 no · 74 HRs

Summer game (Jun-Aug)

−7%

121 yes / 231 no · 74 HRs

First-pitch temperature > 78°F

−6%

118 yes / 223 no · 73 HRs

3rd time through order vs starter

+6%

247 yes / 105 no · 74 HRs

HR-suppressing park (factor ≤ 0.95)

neutral

40 yes / 311 no · 74 HRs

No rest day (B2B or doubleheader)

neutral

270 yes / 81 no · 73 HRs

Vs. low-whiff pitcher (whiff% < 22%)

neutral

0 yes / 0 no · 0 HRs

Vs. barrel-prone pitcher (Barrel% allowed > 9%)

neutral

0 yes / 349 no · 74 HRs

// LIFT = P(HR | factor true) ÷ P(HR | factor false), Bayesian- shrunk with K=30 pseudo-games. Significance requires |lift − 1| ≥ 0.20 AND smaller cohort n ≥ 15. Cohort = top 60 HR hitters, last 2 seasons. Refreshed weekly. Green/red = the factor's effect on tonight's HR chance; gray = not in play tonight.

Last 10 games

Per-game outcomes — most recent first.

Date	PA	H	2B	HR	BB	K	Outcomes
2026-09-13	2	0	0	0	1	1	0-for-1 · 1 BB · 1 K
2026-09-10	4	0	0	0	1	3	0-for-3 · 1 BB · 3 K
2026-09-09	5	2	1	0	0	0	2-for-5 · 1 2B · 1 RBI · 1 R
2026-09-08	5	0	0	0	0	1	0-for-5 · 1 K
2026-09-06	5	1	0	1	0	1	1-for-5 · 1 HR · 1 RBI · 1 R · 1 K
2026-09-05	5	0	0	0	2	2	0-for-3 · 2 BB · 2 K
2026-09-04	4	2	0	0	0	0	2-for-4 · 1 R
2026-09-03	4	0	0	0	1	1	0-for-3 · 1 R · 1 BB · 1 K
2026-09-02	4	2	1	0	0	0	2-for-4 · 1 2B
2026-09-01	4	0	0	0	2	2	0-for-2 · 2 BB · 2 K

Nearest neighbors

Top 10 hitters most similar to Yordan Alvarez across 38 features. Comp Lab uses these for small-sample BvP matchups.

Comp data temporarily unavailable.