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Hits UNDER 1.5 +7.0% edge model 73% · grade A
Verdict one call per prop — does the model agree with recent reality? Prop Pick Model Edge L10 Verdict Hits UNDER 1.5 73% +7.0% 90% STRONG Home Runs UNDER 0.5 87% +4.7% 90% STRONG
Matchup Iván Herrera (RHB) vs David Peterson LHP favors batter favors pitcher David Peterson LHP · season · 88.8 IP · 382 BF
Iván Herrera hitting
Split H-AB BA SLG ISO HR BB% K% Season 77-314 .245 .401 .156 11 18.2% 19.4% vs LHP 22-85 .259 .471 .212 5 23.4% 17.6%
Pitch-type matchup David Peterson's arsenal × how Iván Herrera hits it · since 2025 · TOP = batter's spot David Peterson throws
Pitch Usage Velo Whiff xwOBA TOP Sinker30% 91.4 8% .353 TOP Four-Seam22% 92.2 20% .436 TOP Slider20% 85.0 35% .430 TOP Changeup14% 84.8 24% .324 TOP Curveball13% 79.2 32% .362
Iván Herrera vs each
Pitch Seen Whiff xwOBA EV TOP Sinker565 13% .365 87.5 TOP Four-Seam815 13% .378 91.5 TOP Slider409 31% .487 94.1 TOP Changeup276 34% .446 89.0 TOP Curveball182 25% .430 91.4
xwOBA = expected wOBA from exit velo + launch angle. Green favors the batter, red favors the pitcher.
Hit-rate history per-game results vs the line · green = over · red = under Hits50% Total Bases20% Home Runs10% Singles40% Doubles10% Triples0% Strikeouts70% Walks30% RBIs20% Runs Scored30% Hits + Runs + RBIs50% Stolen Bases0%
50% 5/10 · L10 · avg 0.7
Our model 30% UNDER -0.7% edge PASS
3 @KCR 06-21 1 vARI 06-22 0 vARI 06-23 0 vARI 06-24 0 vMIA 06-26 1 vMIA 06-27 0 vMIA 06-28 0 @ATL 06-30 1 @ATL 07-01 1 @ATL 07-02
L5 60% 3/5 L10 50% 5/10 L20 50% 10/20 2026 67% 61/91 2025 71% 80/112
Recent form per-game over the last 10 Avg PA 4.2 Plate Appearances avg 4.2
6 4 4 3 4 4 3 5 4 5 Total Bases avg 1.1
6 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 2 1 Home Runs avg 0.1
1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Strikeouts avg 0.8
1 0 1 1 2 0 0 1 1 1
Tonight's lines 2026-07-03 · every line we grade — bet any, not just the headline · BEST = best edge · Move = open→now (CLV once settled) Singles
Line Side Grade Model Edge Odds Move Save Track 0.5 — PASS 53% — -150 +1.7 Sign in to save —
Same-game parlay pick 2+ — we price the correlation the book won't +230 -196 +600 -455
Price legs
Splits Career n=384 PA · 2026-03-18 → 2026-07-01
Split H-AB BA SLG ISO 2B 3B HR BB K% Season
2026 season
77-314 .245 .401 .156 14 1 11 70 19.4% vs LHP
left-handed pitching
22-85 .259 .471 .212 3 0 5 26 17.6% vs RHP
right-handed pitching
55-229 .240 .376 .135 11 1 6 44 20.1% Last 15 days
recent form
7-38 .184 .289 .105 1 0 1 9 23.7% vs CHC
tonight's opponent (full roster)
11-56 .196 .250 .054 0 0 1 8 28.6%
xStats luck
xwOBA 0.359
wOBA 0.349
delta −0.010 due
n=382 PA
Spray chart 569 balls in play since 2025 All vLHP vRHP
Match David Peterson's mix Balls in play 569
HR rate 5.3%
Hard-hit (95+) 43%
Avg exit velo 89.9 mph
Ground ball 49%
Line drive 23%
Fly ball 20%
// PLAYER DNA
HR signature matrix hasn't been computed for this player yet. The weekly cron refreshes every Tuesday — check back if this player has joined the top-60 HR cohort.
Last 10 games Per-game outcomes — most recent first.
Date PA H 2B 3B HR BB K Outcomes 2026-07-02 5 1 0 0 0 0 1 1-for-5 · 1 RBI · 1 R · 1 K 2026-07-01 4 1 1 0 0 0 1 1-for-4 · 1 2B · 1 R · 1 K 2026-06-30 5 0 0 0 0 0 1 0-for-5 · 1 K 2026-06-28 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0-for-3 2026-06-27 4 1 0 0 0 0 0 1-for-4 2026-06-26 4 0 0 0 0 0 2 0-for-4 · 2 K 2026-06-24 3 0 0 0 0 1 1 0-for-2 · 1 BB · 1 K 2026-06-23 4 0 0 0 0 1 1 0-for-3 · 1 BB · 1 K 2026-06-22 4 1 0 0 0 1 0 1-for-3 · 1 BB 2026-06-21 6 3 0 0 1 0 1 3-for-6 · 1 HR · 3 RBI · 3 R · 1 K
Nearest neighbors Top 10 hitters most similar to Iván Herrera across 38 features. Comp Lab uses these for small-sample BvP matchups.
Comp data temporarily unavailable.
