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Seiya Suzuki
RF · RHB · RHP · CHC
// TONIGHT'S MATCHUP
Tonight's top play
Hits OVER 0.5+5.0% edgemodel 66% · grade A
Why: Opposing starter coming off >7 days rest: +49.7% lift over 60 games · strong vs the Four-Seam (53% usage, .480 xwOBA).
Verdict
one call per prop — does the model agree with recent reality?Our track record
settled S/A/B picks on Seiya Suzuki, by confidence tier| Tier | Record | Hit rate | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| S | 3-0 | 100% | +47.4% |
| A | — | — | — |
| B | 0-1 | 0% | -100.0% |
Combined 3-1 · n=4 · ROI +10.6% · avg CLV +0.0 pts · beat close 0%
Matchup
Seiya Suzuki (RHB) vs Kevin Gausman RHPfavors batterfavors pitcherPitch-type matchup
Kevin Gausman's arsenal × how Seiya Suzuki hits it · since 2025 · TOP = batter's spotxwOBA = expected wOBA from exit velo + launch angle. Green favors the batter, red favors the pitcher.
Hit-rate history
per-game results vs the line · green = over · red = underRecent form
per-game over the last 10Avg PA4.0Plate Appearancesavg 4.0
Hitsavg 1.2
Singlesavg 0.7
Doublesavg 0.4
Total Basesavg 1.9
Home Runsavg 0.1
Strikeoutsavg 1.2
Walksavg 0.4
Tonight's lines
2026-06-19 · every line we grade — bet any, not just the headline · BEST = best edge · Move = open→now (CLV once settled)Same-game parlay
pick 2+ — we price the correlation the book won'tSplits
Career n=250 PA · 2026-04-10 → 2026-06-17
xStats luck
xwOBA0.346
wOBA0.337
delta−0.009 due
n=249 PA
Spray chart
593 balls in play since 2025Balls in play593
HR rate7.9%
Hard-hit (95+)46%
Avg exit velo91.8 mph
Ground ball33%
Line drive26%
Fly ball33%
What kind of arm does he crush?
top 3 pitcher traits by |lift|
+49.7%significant
n=355 games · 16/60 HR when active
+28.3%significant
n=370 games · 7/27 HR when active
+24.9%significant
n=370 games · 16/74 HR when active
// PLAYER DNA
HR signature· refreshed 2026-06-16
// TONIGHT
2 / 10FAVORABLE
Mostly against
// TREND TRIGGERS · TONIGHT
- -40% HR rate when no rest day (b2b or doubleheader).
- +26% HR rate when playing at home.
Opposing starter coming off >7 days rest
+50%
60 yes / 295 no · 62 HRs
Cold month (Apr / Sep / Oct)
+43%
109 yes / 261 no · 64 HRs
No rest day (B2B or doubleheader)
0.60× HR rate
287 yes / 82 no · 63 HRs
Wind blowing out (≥10 mph, outdoor)
−34%
30 yes / 331 no · 61 HRs
Vs. short-leash starter (avg IP < 5.0)
+31%
158 yes / 209 no · 63 HRs
Summer game (Jun-Aug)
−29%
156 yes / 214 no · 64 HRs
≥1 career HR vs this pitcher
+28%
27 yes / 343 no · 64 HRs
3rd time through order vs starter
−28%
209 yes / 161 no · 64 HRs
Platoon advantage (LHB-vs-RHP or RHB-vs-LHP)
+28%
79 yes / 172 no · 44 HRs
Playing at home
+26%
183 yes / 187 no · 64 HRs
Vs. HR-prone pitcher (HR/PA > 3.8%)
+25%
74 yes / 296 no · 64 HRs
Vs. high-contact-quality pitcher (avg EV allowed ≥ 89 mph)
+24%
162 yes / 208 no · 64 HRs
// 16 more factors — small sample / no significant lift
Opposing starter's recent FB velo down ≥1 mph
+20%
51 yes / 270 no · 56 HRs
HR-suppressing park (factor ≤ 0.95)
+17%
37 yes / 333 no · 64 HRs
Vs. fastball-heavy pitcher (FB% ≥ 55%)
−16%
206 yes / 152 no · 61 HRs
Batting 3-4-5 in the order
−16%
276 yes / 94 no · 64 HRs
Vs. fly-ball-prone pitcher (FB% allowed > 40%)
+14%
55 yes / 314 no · 63 HRs
Rested (2+ days off)
+13%
18 yes / 351 no · 63 HRs
First-pitch temperature > 78°F
+11%
63 yes / 298 no · 61 HRs
Hot streak (L5 avg EV > career baseline)
+9%
170 yes / 195 no · 63 HRs
Vs. pull-fly-ball-prone pitcher (>18%)
+6%
246 yes / 123 no · 63 HRs
HR-friendly park (factor ≥ 1.10)
−6%
56 yes / 314 no · 64 HRs
≥2 career HRs vs this pitcher
+6%
4 yes / 366 no · 64 HRs
Vs. high-xwOBA pitcher (xwOBA allowed > .340)
+5%
88 yes / 282 no · 64 HRs
Vs. barrel-prone pitcher (Barrel% allowed > 9%)
neutral
1 yes / 368 no · 63 HRs
Vs. hittable pitcher (BAA > .260)
neutral
83 yes / 287 no · 64 HRs
≥3 career HRs vs this pitcher
neutral
0 yes / 370 no · 64 HRs
Vs. low-whiff pitcher (whiff% < 22%)
neutral
0 yes / 0 no · 0 HRs
// LIFT = P(HR | factor true) ÷ P(HR | factor false), Bayesian- shrunk with K=30 pseudo-games. Significance requires |lift − 1| ≥ 0.20 AND smaller cohort n ≥ 15. Cohort = top 60 HR hitters, last 2 seasons. Refreshed weekly.
Last 10 games
Per-game outcomes — most recent first.
Nearest neighbors
Top 10 hitters most similar to Seiya Suzuki across 38 features. Comp Lab uses these for small-sample BvP matchups.
Comp data temporarily unavailable.