← BACK TO SLATE
Seiya Suzuki
RF · RHB · RHP · CHC
// TONIGHT'S MATCHUP
Our track record
settled S/A/B picks on Seiya Suzuki, by confidence tier| Tier | Record | Hit rate | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| S | 4-1 | 80% | +80.8% |
| A | 1-4 | 20% | -15.0% |
| B | 8-5 | 62% | +70.3% |
Combined 13-10 · n=23 · ROI +54.0% · avg CLV +0.4 pts · beat close 55%
Matchup
Seiya Suzuki (RHB) vs Tarik Skubal favors batterfavors pitcherPitch-type matchup
Tarik Skubal's arsenal × how Seiya Suzuki hits it · since 2025 · TOP = batter's spotxwOBA = expected wOBA from exit velo + launch angle. Green favors the batter, red favors the pitcher.
Hit-rate history
per-game results vs the line · green = over · red = underRecent form
per-game over the last 10Avg PA4.8Plate Appearancesavg 4.8
Hitsavg 1.1
Singlesavg 0.6
Doublesavg 0.3
Total Basesavg 2.0
Home Runsavg 0.2
Strikeoutsavg 1.6
Walksavg 0.6
Tonight's lines
2026-08-04 · every line we grade — bet any, not just the headline · BEST = best edge · Move = open→now (CLV once settled)Splits
Career n=2,302 PA · 2023-04-14 → 2026-08-01
xStats luck
xwOBA0.341
wOBA0.353
delta+0.012 hot
n=411 PA
Spray chart
691 balls in play since 2025Balls in play691
HR rate8.0%
Hard-hit (95+)44%
Avg exit velo90.8 mph
Ground ball33%
Line drive26%
Fly ball33%
What kind of arm does he crush?
top 3 pitcher traits by |lift|
+49.8%significant
n=394 games · 18/67 HR when active
+20.3%significant
n=408 games · 17/80 HR when active
+14.8%small sample
n=408 games · 8/37 HR when active
// PLAYER DNA
HR signature· refreshed 2026-08-04
// TONIGHT
0 / 1HELPING · IN PLAY
Leaning against
// IN PLAY TONIGHT
- −23% HR rate when summer game (jun-aug).
helping tonighthurting tonightnot in play tonight
Opposing starter coming off >7 days rest
+50%
67 yes / 327 no · 70 HRs
Wind blowing out (≥10 mph, outdoor)
0.63× HR rate
33 yes / 366 no · 69 HRs
Cold month (Apr / Sep / Oct)
+37%
109 yes / 299 no · 72 HRs
Vs. short-leash starter (avg IP < 5.0)
+36%
164 yes / 241 no · 71 HRs
No rest day (B2B or doubleheader)
0.66× HR rate
316 yes / 91 no · 71 HRs
3rd time through order vs starter
−24%
230 yes / 178 no · 72 HRs
Platoon advantage (LHB-vs-RHP or RHB-vs-LHP)
+23%
89 yes / 194 no · 51 HRs
Summer game (Jun-Aug)tonight
−23%
194 yes / 214 no · 72 HRs
Vs. HR-prone pitcher (HR/PA > 3.8%)
+20%
80 yes / 328 no · 72 HRs
// 19 more factors — small sample / no significant lift
Playing at home
+18%
202 yes / 206 no · 72 HRs
≥1 career HR vs this pitcher
+15%
37 yes / 371 no · 72 HRs
Vs. high-contact-quality pitcher (avg EV allowed ≥ 89 mph)
+14%
183 yes / 225 no · 72 HRs
HR-suppressing park (factor ≤ 0.95)
+13%
43 yes / 365 no · 72 HRs
Opposing starter's recent FB velo down ≥1 mph
+13%
58 yes / 298 no · 64 HRs
Vs. fastball-heavy pitcher (FB% ≥ 55%)
−13%
227 yes / 168 no · 69 HRs
Batting 3-4-5 in the order
−13%
297 yes / 111 no · 72 HRs
Vs. fly-ball-prone pitcher (FB% allowed > 40%)
+10%
66 yes / 342 no · 72 HRs
Vs. pull-fly-ball-prone pitcher (>18%)
+9%
298 yes / 110 no · 72 HRs
Hot streak (L5 avg EV > career baseline)
+8%
178 yes / 225 no · 71 HRs
First-pitch temperature > 78°F
+8%
80 yes / 319 no · 69 HRs
Rested (2+ days off)
+7%
20 yes / 387 no · 71 HRs
Vs. hittable pitcher (BAA > .260)
−6%
96 yes / 312 no · 72 HRs
≥2 career HRs vs this pitcher
neutral
7 yes / 401 no · 72 HRs
Vs. barrel-prone pitcher (Barrel% allowed > 9%)
neutral
1 yes / 407 no · 72 HRs
Vs. high-xwOBA pitcher (xwOBA allowed > .340)
neutral
94 yes / 314 no · 72 HRs
HR-friendly park (factor ≥ 1.10)
neutral
62 yes / 346 no · 72 HRs
≥3 career HRs vs this pitcher
neutral
0 yes / 408 no · 72 HRs
Vs. low-whiff pitcher (whiff% < 22%)
neutral
0 yes / 0 no · 0 HRs
// LIFT = P(HR | factor true) ÷ P(HR | factor false), Bayesian- shrunk with K=30 pseudo-games. Significance requires |lift − 1| ≥ 0.20 AND smaller cohort n ≥ 15. Cohort = top 60 HR hitters, last 2 seasons. Refreshed weekly. Green/red = the factor's effect on tonight's HR chance; gray = not in play tonight.
Last 10 games
Per-game outcomes — most recent first.
Nearest neighbors
Top 10 hitters most similar to Seiya Suzuki across 38 features. Comp Lab uses these for small-sample BvP matchups.
Comp data temporarily unavailable.