← BACK TO SLATE Tonight's top play
Hits OVER 0.5 +10.7% edge model 70% · grade S
Why: strong vs the Sweeper (20% usage, .383 xwOBA).
Verdict one call per prop — does the model agree with recent reality? Prop Pick Model Edge L10 Verdict Hits OVER 0.5 70% +10.7% 80% STRONG Home Runs UNDER 0.5 97% -0.9% 100% PASS
Our track record settled S/A/B picks on Steven Kwan, by confidence tier Tier Record Hit rate ROI S 4-4 50% -10.0% A 5-3 63% -6.7% B 1-3 25% -60.0%
Combined 10-10 · n=20 · ROI -18.7% · avg CLV -1.2 pts · beat close 29%
Matchup Steven Kwan (LHB) vs Anthony Kay LHP favors batter favors pitcher Anthony Kay LHP · season · 95.3 IP · 410 BF
Steven Kwan hitting
Split H-AB BA SLG ISO HR BB% K% Season 573-2170 .264 .367 .103 32 10.3% 10.6% vs LHP 178-700 .254 .327 .073 6 9.4% 12.0%
Pitch-type matchup Anthony Kay's arsenal × how Steven Kwan hits it · since 2025 · TOP = batter's spot Anthony Kay throws
Pitch Usage Velo Whiff xwOBA Four-Seam 27% 95.7 16% .461 TOP Sweeper20% 82.5 31% .315 Cutter 19% 90.8 16% .393 Sinker 18% 94.8 14% .405 Changeup 14% 85.7 23% .306 Slider 2% 84.2 33% .313
Steven Kwan vs each
Pitch Seen Whiff xwOBA EV Four-Seam 1487 4% .265 84.5 TOP Sweeper242 13% .383 84.3 Cutter 309 5% .291 84.7 Sinker 652 3% .303 83.8 Changeup 373 13% .291 81.2 Slider 457 15% .299 83.6
xwOBA = expected wOBA from exit velo + launch angle. Green favors the batter, red favors the pitcher.
Hit-rate history per-game results vs the line · green = over · red = under Hits80% Total Bases30% Home Runs0% Singles60% Doubles10% Triples10% Strikeouts30% Walks30% RBIs0% Runs Scored30% Hits + Runs + RBIs90% Stolen Bases0%
80% 8/10 · L10 · avg 0.9
Our model 70% OVER +10.7% edge S
0 @CHW 06-22 1 @CHW 06-23 2 @CHW 06-24 1 vSEA 06-26 0 vSEA 06-27 1 vSEA 06-28 1 vTEX 06-29 1 vTEX 06-30 1 vTEX 07-01 1 vCHW 07-02
L5 100% 5/5 L10 80% 8/10 L20 50% 10/20 2026 52% 50/96 2025 68% 113/166
Recent form per-game over the last 10 Avg PA 3.5 Plate Appearances avg 3.5
2 4 4 3 4 5 4 3 2 4 Total Bases avg 1.2
0 2 2 1 0 1 1 1 3 1 Home Runs avg 0.0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Strikeouts avg 0.3
0 1 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0
Tonight's lines 2026-07-03 · every line we grade — bet any, not just the headline · BEST = best edge · Move = open→now (CLV once settled) Total Bases
Line Side Grade Model Edge Odds Move Save Track 1.5 — PASS 30% — +230 -0.5 Sign in to save —
Same-game parlay pick 2+ — we price the correlation the book won't Hits OVER 0.5-143 Home Runs UNDER 0.5-5000
Price legs
Splits Career n=2,419 PA · 2023-03-30 → 2026-07-01
Split H-AB BA SLG ISO 2B 3B HR BB K% Career
all history
573-2170 .264 .367 .103 97 15 32 249 10.6% vs LHP
left-handed pitching
178-700 .254 .327 .073 29 2 6 73 12.0% vs RHP
right-handed pitching
395-1470 .269 .386 .117 68 13 26 176 10.0% Last 15 days
recent form
9-38 .237 .316 .079 1 1 0 5 10.5% @ Progressive Field
tonight's stadium
1013-5158 .196 .245 .049 0 126 0 406 5.0%
xStats luck
xwOBA 0.294
wOBA 0.275
delta −0.019 due
n=343 PA
Spray chart 858 balls in play since 2025 1B 2B 3B HR OUTAll vLHP vRHP
Match Anthony Kay's mix Balls in play 858
HR rate 1.4%
Hard-hit (95+) 17%
Avg exit velo 84.4 mph
Ground ball 39%
Line drive 29%
Fly ball 26%
// PLAYER DNA
HR signature matrix hasn't been computed for this player yet. The weekly cron refreshes every Tuesday — check back if this player has joined the top-60 HR cohort.
Last 10 games Per-game outcomes — most recent first.
Date PA H 2B 3B HR BB K Outcomes 2026-07-02 4 1 0 0 0 2 0 1-for-2 · 2 BB 2026-07-01 2 1 0 1 0 0 0 1-for-2 · 1 3B · 1 R 2026-06-30 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 1-for-3 2026-06-29 4 1 0 0 0 0 0 1-for-4 2026-06-28 5 1 0 0 0 1 0 1-for-4 · 1 R · 1 BB 2026-06-27 4 0 0 0 0 0 1 0-for-4 · 1 K 2026-06-26 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 1-for-3 2026-06-24 4 2 0 0 0 0 1 2-for-4 · 1 K 2026-06-23 4 1 1 0 0 0 1 1-for-4 · 1 2B · 1 K 2026-06-22 2 0 0 0 0 2 0 0-for-0 · 1 R · 2 BB
Nearest neighbors Top 10 hitters most similar to Steven Kwan across 38 features. Comp Lab uses these for small-sample BvP matchups.
Comp data temporarily unavailable.