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Jarren Duran
LF · LHB · RHP · BOS
// TONIGHT'S MATCHUP
Tonight's top play
Hits OVER 0.5+7.5% edgemodel 62% · grade A
Why: strong vs the Four-Seam (19% usage, .421 xwOBA).
Verdict
one call per prop — does the model agree with recent reality?Our track record
settled S/A/B picks on Jarren Duran, by confidence tier| Tier | Record | Hit rate | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| S | 12-9 | 57% | +29.1% |
| A | 14-12 | 54% | +167.5% |
| B | 11-13 | 46% | +56.9% |
Combined 37-34 · n=71 · ROI +89.2% · avg CLV -1.7 pts · beat close 32%
Matchup
Jarren Duran (LHB) vs Griffin Jax RHPfavors batterfavors pitcherPitch-type matchup
Griffin Jax's arsenal × how Jarren Duran hits it · since 2025 · TOP = batter's spotxwOBA = expected wOBA from exit velo + launch angle. Green favors the batter, red favors the pitcher.
Hit-rate history
per-game results vs the line · green = over · red = underRecent form
per-game over the last 10Avg PA3.1Plate Appearancesavg 3.1
Hitsavg 0.7
Singlesavg 0.4
Doublesavg 0.1
Total Basesavg 1.3
Home Runsavg 0.1
Strikeoutsavg 0.8
Walksavg 0.1
Tonight's lines
2026-09-20 · every line we grade — bet any, not just the headline · BEST = best edge · Move = open→now (CLV once settled)Same-game parlay
pick 2+ — we price the correlation the book won'tSplits
Career n=609 PA · 2026-03-15 → 2026-09-17
xStats luck
xwOBA0.285
wOBA0.263
delta−0.022 due
n=609 PA
Spray chart
868 balls in play since 2025Balls in play868
HR rate4.3%
Hard-hit (95+)44%
Avg exit velo89.9 mph
Ground ball43%
Line drive23%
Fly ball25%
// PLAYER DNA
No statistically significant HR signature found at current sample size. We won't fabricate a pattern — most hitters need at least a half-season of data before factor lifts stabilize.
Last 10 games
Per-game outcomes — most recent first.
Nearest neighbors
Top 10 hitters most similar to Jarren Duran across 38 features. Comp Lab uses these for small-sample BvP matchups.
Comp data temporarily unavailable.