Jarren Duran

LF · LHB · RHP · BOS

// TONIGHT'S MATCHUP

Home vs

CWS

Starter

Luis Castillo (RHP)

Stadium

Fenway Park

Model HR%

18.8%

Model Hits%

68.7%

Tonight's top play

Home Runs OVER 0.5+3.3% edgemodel 19% · grade B

Verdict

one call per prop — does the model agree with recent reality?

Prop	Pick	Model	Edge	L10	Verdict
Home Runs	OVER 0.5	19%	+3.3%	20%	CAUTION
Hits	OVER 0.5	69%	+0.7%	70%	LEAN

Our track record

settled S/A/B picks on Jarren Duran, by confidence tier

Tier	Record	Hit rate	ROI
S	9-5	64%	+115.6%
A	5-5	50%	+77.8%
B	8-4	67%	+157.6%

Combined 22-14 · n=36 · ROI +119.1% · avg CLV -0.5 pts · beat close 37%

Matchup

Jarren Duran (LHB) vs Luis Castillo RHPfavors batterfavors pitcher

Luis Castillo RHP · season · 111.9 IP · 481 BF

BAA

.263

wOBA

.340

SLG

.447

ISO

.184

WHIP

1.39

HR/9

1.45

BB%

8.3%

19.1%

Whiff%

—

Barrel%

2.1%

HH%

41.6%

FB%

36.6%

HR/FB%

17.5%

Jarren Duran hitting

Split	H-AB	BA	SLG	ISO	HR	BB%	K%
Season	86-433	.199	.339	.141	15	7.9%	30.5%
vs RHP	64-323	.198	.365	.167	14	6.6%	31.6%

Hit-rate history

per-game results vs the line · green = over · red = under

OVER

0.5

Hits

70%7/10 · L10 · avg 1.3

Our model69% OVER+0.7% edgePASS

Recent form

per-game over the last 10Avg PA3.9

Plate Appearancesavg 3.9

Hitsavg 1.3

Singlesavg 1.0

Doublesavg 0.1

Total Basesavg 2.0

Home Runsavg 0.2

Strikeoutsavg 0.6

Walksavg 0.1

Tonight's lines

2026-08-06 · every line we grade — bet any, not just the headline · BEST = best edge · Move = open→now (CLV once settled)

Doubles + Triples

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Save	Track
0.5	—	S	9%	—	+325	+0.4	Sign in to save	—

Hits

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Save	Track
BEST0.5	OVER	PASS	69%	+0.7%	-213	+0.5	Sign in to save	Sign in
1.5	UNDER	PASS	73%	+0.4%	-350	+0.0	Sign in to save	Sign in
2.5	OVER	PASS	6%	-3.5%	+1000	+0.0	Sign in to save	Sign in

Home Runs

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Save	Track
BEST0.5	OVER	B	19%	+3.3%	+545	+0.2	Sign in to save	Sign in

RBIs

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Save	Track
0.5	—	S	12%	—	+145	-0.5	Sign in to save	—
1.5	—	PASS	10%	—	+450	+0.0	Sign in to save	—

Singles

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Save	Track
0.5	—	B	49%	—	+120	+0.0	Sign in to save	—
1.5	—	PASS	11%	—	+700	+0.0	Sign in to save	—

Total Bases

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Save	Track
1.5	—	S	36%	—	+120	-1.9	Sign in to save	—

Same-game parlay

pick 2+ — we price the correlation the book won't

Splits

Career n=470 PA · 2026-03-15 → 2026-08-04

Season Career

Split	H-AB	BA	SLG	ISO	2B	3B	HR	BB	K%
Season 2026 season	86-433	.199	.339	.141	10	3	15	37	30.5%
vs LHP left-handed pitching	22-110	.200	.264	.064	4	0	1	14	27.3%
vs RHP right-handed pitching	64-323	.198	.365	.167	6	3	14	23	31.6%
Last 15 days recent form	14-50	.280	.440	.160	0	1	2	1	20.0%
vs Luis Castillo tonight's starting pitcher	3-14	.214	.429	.214	0	0	1	0	42.9%
@ Fenway Park tonight's stadium	3006-14074	.214	.350	.137	0	289	448	511	29.0%

xStats luck

xwOBA0.294

wOBA0.278

delta−0.016 due

n=470 PA

// SPRAY PROFILE NOT YET AVAILABLE — needs ≥1 season of batted-ball data

// PLAYER DNA

No statistically significant HR signature found at current sample size. We won't fabricate a pattern — most hitters need at least a half-season of data before factor lifts stabilize.

Last 10 games

Per-game outcomes — most recent first.

Date	PA	H	2B	HR	BB	K	Outcomes
2026-08-05	3	2	1	0	0	0	2-for-3 · 1 2B · 1 R · 1 SB
2026-08-04	4	2	0	1	0	1	2-for-4 · 1 HR · 1 RBI · 2 R · 1 SB · 1 K
2026-08-02	5	1	0	1	0	1	1-for-5 · 1 HR · 1 RBI · 1 R · 1 K
2026-08-01	3	1	0	0	0	0	1-for-3
2026-07-31	5	2	0	0	1	0	2-for-4 · 2 RBI · 1 BB
2026-07-30	4	0	0	0	0	1	0-for-4 · 1 K
2026-07-29	3	0	0	0	0	0	0-for-3
2026-07-28	4	2	0	0	0	2	2-for-4 · 1 R · 2 K
2026-07-27	4	0	0	0	0	1	0-for-4 · 1 K
2026-07-26	4	3	0	0	0	0	3-for-4 · 2 RBI · 1 R · 1 SB

Nearest neighbors

Top 10 hitters most similar to Jarren Duran across 38 features. Comp Lab uses these for small-sample BvP matchups.

Comp data temporarily unavailable.