← BACK TO SLATE Tonight's top play
Hits OVER 0.5 +18.3% edge model 77% · grade S
Why: strong vs the Cutter (47% usage, .430 xwOBA).
Verdict one call per prop — does the model agree with recent reality? Prop Pick Model Edge L10 Verdict Hits OVER 0.5 77% +18.3% 30% CAUTION Home Runs OVER 0.5 11% +5.5% 0% CAUTION
Our track record settled S/A/B picks on Bryson Stott, by confidence tier Tier Record Hit rate ROI S 30-6 83% +82.8% A 14-11 56% +1.7% B 13-13 50% +36.9%
Combined 57-30 · n=87 · ROI +45.8% · avg CLV +0.4 pts · beat close 39%
Matchup Bryson Stott (LHB) vs Zac Thornton LHP favors batter favors pitcher Zac Thornton LHP · season · 71.9 IP · 309 BF
Bryson Stott hitting
Split H-AB BA SLG ISO HR BB% K% Season 131-528 .248 .388 .140 11 10.1% 18.8% vs LHP 35-124 .282 .411 .129 2 10.1% 17.7%
Pitch-type matchup Zac Thornton's arsenal × how Bryson Stott hits it · since 2025 · TOP = batter's spot Zac Thornton throws
Pitch Usage Velo Whiff xwOBA TOP Cutter47% 85.2 14% .698 TOP Four-Seam31% 91.4 0% .279 Sinker 11% 91.2 0% — Sweeper 6% 79.5 40% .376 Splitter 2% 82.2 0% — Curveball 1% 73.9 — — Changeup 1% 82.7 0% —
Bryson Stott vs each
Pitch Seen Whiff xwOBA EV TOP Cutter201 24% .430 90.3 TOP Four-Seam1358 14% .371 89.2 Sinker 480 10% .286 86.9 Sweeper 147 17% .221 78.4 Splitter 133 17% .242 82.1 Curveball 258 11% .273 87.9 Changeup 359 11% .337 86.8
xwOBA = expected wOBA from exit velo + launch angle. Green favors the batter, red favors the pitcher.
Hit-rate history per-game results vs the line · green = over · red = under Hits30% Total Bases20% Home Runs0% Singles30% Doubles20% Triples0% Strikeouts60% Walks30% RBIs30% Runs Scored50% Hits + Runs + RBIs70% Stolen Bases10%
30% 3/10 · L10 · avg 0.6
Our model 77% OVER +18.3% edge S
0 vATL 09-07 1 vHOU 09-08 0 vHOU 09-09 0 vHOU 09-10 0 @ATL 09-11 0 @ATL 09-12 3 @ATL 09-13 0 @WSN 09-15 0 @WSN 09-16 2 @NYM 09-17
L5 40% 2/5 L10 30% 3/10 L20 40% 8/20 2026 64% 104/163 2025 62% 97/157
Recent form per-game over the last 10 Avg PA 3.7 Plate Appearances avg 3.7
3 4 4 3 2 3 5 4 5 4 Total Bases avg 0.8
0 1 0 0 0 0 4 0 0 3 Home Runs avg 0.0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Strikeouts avg 0.6
1 0 1 1 1 0 1 1 0 0
Tonight's lines 2026-09-18 · every line we grade — bet any, not just the headline · BEST = best edge · Move = open→now (CLV once settled) Doubles + Triples
Line Side Grade Model Edge Odds Move Save Track 0.5 — PASS 11% — +478 +0.6 Sign in to save —
Same-game parlay pick 2+ — we price the correlation the book won't Hits OVER 0.5-145 Home Runs OVER 0.5+1567
Price legs
Splits Career n=587 PA · 2026-03-15 → 2026-09-16
Split H-AB BA SLG ISO 2B 3B HR BB K% Season
2026 season
131-528 .248 .388 .140 29 6 11 59 18.8% vs LHP
left-handed pitching
35-124 .282 .411 .129 8 1 2 14 17.7% vs RHP
right-handed pitching
96-404 .238 .381 .144 21 5 9 45 19.1% Last 15 days
recent form
5-36 .139 .167 .028 1 0 0 5 22.2% vs NYM
tonight's opponent (full roster)
13-55 .236 .345 .109 1 1 1 7 20.0% @ Citi Field
tonight's stadium
269-1462 .184 .184 .000 0 0 0 210 32.6%
xStats luck
xwOBA 0.311
wOBA 0.308
delta −0.003 due
n=586 PA
Spray chart 865 balls in play since 2025 1B 2B 3B HR OUTAll vLHP vRHP
Match Zac Thornton's mix Balls in play 865
HR rate 2.7%
Hard-hit (95+) 35%
Avg exit velo 88.4 mph
Ground ball 43%
Line drive 24%
Fly ball 28%
// PLAYER DNA
HR signature matrix hasn't been computed for this player yet. The weekly cron refreshes every Tuesday — check back if this player has joined the top-60 HR cohort.
Last 10 games Per-game outcomes — most recent first.
Date PA H 2B 3B HR BB K Outcomes 2026-09-17 4 2 1 0 0 0 0 2-for-4 · 1 2B · 1 R 2026-09-16 5 0 0 0 0 2 0 0-for-3 · 1 RBI · 1 SB · 2 BB 2026-09-15 4 0 0 0 0 0 1 0-for-4 · 1 K 2026-09-13 5 3 1 0 0 0 1 3-for-5 · 1 2B · 1 RBI · 1 R · 1 K 2026-09-12 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0-for-3 2026-09-11 2 0 0 0 0 1 1 0-for-1 · 1 R · 1 BB · 1 K 2026-09-10 3 0 0 0 0 0 1 0-for-3 · 1 RBI · 1 K 2026-09-09 4 0 0 0 0 1 1 0-for-3 · 1 R · 1 BB · 1 K 2026-09-08 4 1 0 0 0 0 0 1-for-4 · 1 R 2026-09-07 3 0 0 0 0 0 1 0-for-3 · 1 K
Nearest neighbors Top 10 hitters most similar to Bryson Stott across 38 features. Comp Lab uses these for small-sample BvP matchups.
Comp data temporarily unavailable.