← BACK TO SLATE Tonight's top play
Hits OVER 0.5 +4.8% edge model 67% · grade B
Why: strong vs the Changeup (21% usage, .388 xwOBA).
Verdict one call per prop — does the model agree with recent reality? Prop Pick Model Edge L10 Verdict Hits OVER 0.5 67% +4.8% 60% STRONG
Our track record settled S/A/B picks on CJ Abrams, by confidence tier Tier Record Hit rate ROI S 0-1 0% -100.0% A 3-3 50% +102.5% B 2-4 33% -49.7%
Combined 5-8 · n=13 · ROI +16.7% · avg CLV -1.6 pts · beat close 57%
Matchup CJ Abrams (LHB) vs Griffin Jax RHP favors batter favors pitcher Griffin Jax RHP · season · 43.7 IP · 188 BF
CJ Abrams hitting
Split H-AB BA SLG ISO HR BB% K% Season 83-295 .281 .495 .214 14 11.7% 22.7% vs RHP 58-210 .276 .510 .233 12 13.2% 21.4%
Pitch-type matchup Griffin Jax's arsenal × how CJ Abrams hits it · since 2025 · TOP = batter's spot Griffin Jax throws
Pitch Usage Velo Whiff xwOBA Sweeper 39% 87.9 43% .416 TOP Changeup21% 92.2 45% .323 TOP Four-Seam19% 96.8 17% .495 TOP Sinker14% 96.3 15% .329 Cutter 5% 93.2 21% .294 Curveball 3% 85.7 40% .483
CJ Abrams vs each
Pitch Seen Whiff xwOBA EV Sweeper 255 34% .298 84.7 TOP Changeup296 27% .388 83.7 TOP Four-Seam1031 19% .368 90.7 TOP Sinker421 13% .387 90.4 Cutter 246 13% .391 88.9 Curveball 299 30% .314 88.5
xwOBA = expected wOBA from exit velo + launch angle. Green favors the batter, red favors the pitcher.
Hit-rate history per-game results vs the line · green = over · red = under Hits60% Total Bases40% Home Runs10% Singles40% Doubles10% Triples0% Strikeouts80% Walks0% RBIs40% Runs Scored60% Hits + Runs + RBIs70% Stolen Bases20%
60% 6/10 · L10 · avg 0.9
Our model 67% OVER +4.8% edge B
0 @ARI 06-06 1 @ARI 06-07 2 @SFG 06-08 0 @SFG 06-09 0 vSEA 06-12 3 vSEA 06-13 1 vSEA 06-14 0 vKCR 06-15 1 vKCR 06-16 1 vKCR 06-17
L5 80% 4/5 L10 60% 6/10 L20 70% 14/20 2026 65% 59/91 2025 66% 99/150
Recent form per-game over the last 10 Avg PA 4.1 Plate Appearances avg 4.1
4 4 4 5 3 4 5 4 4 4 Total Bases avg 1.3
0 4 2 0 0 3 1 0 1 2 Home Runs avg 0.1
0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Strikeouts avg 1.0
2 0 1 1 2 0 1 1 1 1
Tonight's lines 2026-06-19 · every line we grade — bet any, not just the headline · BEST = best edge · Move = open→now (CLV once settled) Doubles + Triples
Line Side Grade Model Edge Odds Move Track 0.5 — B 8% — +450 +2.1 —
Hits
Line Side Grade Model Edge Odds Move Track BEST 0.5OVER B 67% +4.8% -161 +0.3 Sign in 1.5 UNDER PASS 78% -2.3% -400 +0.0 Sign in 2.5 OVER PASS 4% -3.4% +1300 +0.0 Sign in
Singles
Line Side Grade Model Edge Odds Move Track 0.5 — A 51% — +125 -1.0 —
Total Bases
Line Side Grade Model Edge Odds Move Track 1.5 — PASS 36% — +140 +2.0 —
Same-game parlay pick 2+ — we price the correlation the book won't -161 -400 +1300
Price legs
Splits Career n=334 PA · 2026-03-15 → 2026-06-17
Split H-AB BA SLG ISO 2B 3B HR BB K% Season
2026 season
83-295 .281 .495 .214 15 3 14 39 22.7% vs LHP
left-handed pitching
25-85 .294 .459 .165 6 1 2 7 25.9% vs RHP
right-handed pitching
58-210 .276 .510 .233 9 2 12 32 21.4% Last 15 days
recent form
12-45 .267 .422 .156 1 0 2 2 24.4%
xStats luck
xwOBA 0.304
wOBA 0.334
delta +0.030 hot
n=332 PA
Spray chart 700 balls in play since 2025 All vLHP vRHP
Match Griffin Jax's mix Balls in play 700
HR rate 4.7%
Hard-hit (95+) 38%
Avg exit velo 88.3 mph
Ground ball 39%
Line drive 24%
Fly ball 28%
// PLAYER DNA
HR signature matrix hasn't been computed for this player yet. The weekly cron refreshes every Tuesday — check back if this player has joined the top-60 HR cohort.
Last 10 games Per-game outcomes — most recent first.
Date PA H 2B 3B HR BB K Outcomes 2026-06-17 4 1 1 0 0 0 1 1-for-4 · 1 2B · 1 RBI · 1 R · 1 K 2026-06-16 4 1 0 0 0 0 1 1-for-4 · 1 SB · 1 K 2026-06-15 4 0 0 0 0 0 1 0-for-4 · 1 K 2026-06-14 5 1 0 0 0 0 1 1-for-5 · 1 R · 1 K 2026-06-13 4 3 0 0 0 0 0 3-for-4 · 2 RBI · 2 R 2026-06-12 3 0 0 0 0 0 2 0-for-3 · 2 K 2026-06-09 5 0 0 0 0 0 1 0-for-5 · 1 R · 1 K 2026-06-08 4 2 0 0 0 0 1 2-for-4 · 2 RBI · 1 R · 1 SB · 1 K 2026-06-07 4 1 0 0 1 0 0 1-for-4 · 1 HR · 1 RBI · 1 R 2026-06-06 4 0 0 0 0 0 2 0-for-4 · 2 K
Nearest neighbors Top 10 hitters most similar to CJ Abrams across 38 features. Comp Lab uses these for small-sample BvP matchups.
Comp data temporarily unavailable.
