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CJ Abrams
SS · LHB · RHP · WSN
// TONIGHT'S MATCHUP
Our track record
settled S/A/B picks on CJ Abrams, by confidence tier| Tier | Record | Hit rate | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| S | 11-7 | 61% | +39.6% |
| A | 8-10 | 44% | -25.5% |
| B | 8-7 | 53% | +53.7% |
Combined 27-24 · n=51 · ROI +20.8% · avg CLV -0.6 pts · beat close 22%
Matchup
CJ Abrams (LHB) vs Cristopher Sánchez LHPfavors batterfavors pitcherPitch-type matchup
Cristopher Sánchez's arsenal × how CJ Abrams hits it · since 2025 · TOP = batter's spotxwOBA = expected wOBA from exit velo + launch angle. Green favors the batter, red favors the pitcher.
Hit-rate history
per-game results vs the line · green = over · red = underRecent form
per-game over the last 10Avg PA4.3Plate Appearancesavg 4.3
Hitsavg 0.9
Singlesavg 0.4
Doublesavg 0.4
Total Basesavg 1.6
Home Runsavg 0.1
Strikeoutsavg 1.2
Walksavg 0.3
Tonight's lines
2026-09-18 · every line we grade — bet any, not just the headline · BEST = best edge · Move = open→now (CLV once settled)Splits
Career n=2,544 PA · 2023-03-30 → 2026-09-13
xStats luck
xwOBA0.315
wOBA0.348
delta+0.033 hot
n=634 PA
Spray chart
892 balls in play since 2025Balls in play892
HR rate5.5%
Hard-hit (95+)39%
Avg exit velo88.7 mph
Ground ball39%
Line drive23%
Fly ball29%
What kind of arm does he crush?
top 3 pitcher traits by |lift|
+44.5%significant
n=472 games · 16/82 HR when active
+43.8%significant
n=472 games · 51/338 HR when active
-25.1%significant
n=459 games · 29/263 HR when active
// PLAYER DNA
HR signature· refreshed 2026-09-15
// TONIGHT
1 / 1HELPING · IN PLAY
Leaning favorable
// IN PLAY TONIGHT
- +52% HR rate when hot streak (l5 avg ev > career baseline).
helping tonighthurting tonightnot in play tonight
Batting 3-4-5 in the order
1.83× HR rate
124 yes / 351 no · 65 HRs
Hot streak (L5 avg EV > career baseline)tonight
1.52× HR rate
265 yes / 205 no · 65 HRs
Vs. fly-ball-prone pitcher (FB% allowed > 40%)
+45%
82 yes / 390 no · 64 HRs
Vs. pull-fly-ball-prone pitcher (>18%)
+44%
338 yes / 134 no · 64 HRs
Playing at home
0.66× HR rate
246 yes / 229 no · 65 HRs
Opposing starter coming off >7 days rest
+29%
84 yes / 364 no · 62 HRs
Vs. fastball-heavy pitcher (FB% ≥ 55%)
−25%
263 yes / 196 no · 59 HRs
Vs. hittable pitcher (BAA > .260)
−23%
114 yes / 361 no · 65 HRs
Vs. high-xwOBA pitcher (xwOBA allowed > .340)
+22%
103 yes / 372 no · 65 HRs
// 19 more factors — small sample / no significant lift
Vs. barrel-prone pitcher (Barrel% allowed > 9%)
+22%
1 yes / 471 no · 64 HRs
No rest day (B2B or doubleheader)
−19%
366 yes / 108 no · 65 HRs
Vs. short-leash starter (avg IP < 5.0)
−18%
208 yes / 261 no · 64 HRs
Platoon advantage (LHB-vs-RHP or RHB-vs-LHP)
+17%
220 yes / 100 no · 44 HRs
Vs. high-contact-quality pitcher (avg EV allowed ≥ 89 mph)
+17%
199 yes / 276 no · 65 HRs
HR-suppressing park (factor ≤ 0.95)
+14%
56 yes / 418 no · 65 HRs
Cold month (Apr / Sep / Oct)
+13%
125 yes / 350 no · 65 HRs
Rested (2+ days off)
+13%
23 yes / 451 no · 65 HRs
Vs. HR-prone pitcher (HR/PA > 3.8%)
+12%
91 yes / 383 no · 65 HRs
First-pitch temperature > 78°F
+11%
116 yes / 343 no · 65 HRs
Opposing starter's recent FB velo down ≥1 mph
+9%
52 yes / 355 no · 56 HRs
Summer game (Jun-Aug)
+8%
223 yes / 252 no · 65 HRs
HR-friendly park (factor ≥ 1.10)
neutral
56 yes / 418 no · 65 HRs
Wind blowing out (≥10 mph, outdoor)
neutral
6 yes / 453 no · 65 HRs
3rd time through order vs starter
neutral
259 yes / 216 no · 65 HRs
≥1 career HR vs this pitcher
neutral
36 yes / 439 no · 65 HRs
≥3 career HRs vs this pitcher
neutral
0 yes / 475 no · 65 HRs
≥2 career HRs vs this pitcher
neutral
0 yes / 475 no · 65 HRs
Vs. low-whiff pitcher (whiff% < 22%)
neutral
0 yes / 0 no · 0 HRs
// LIFT = P(HR | factor true) ÷ P(HR | factor false), Bayesian- shrunk with K=30 pseudo-games. Significance requires |lift − 1| ≥ 0.20 AND smaller cohort n ≥ 15. Cohort = top 60 HR hitters, last 2 seasons. Refreshed weekly. Green/red = the factor's effect on tonight's HR chance; gray = not in play tonight.
Last 10 games
Per-game outcomes — most recent first.
Nearest neighbors
Top 10 hitters most similar to CJ Abrams across 38 features. Comp Lab uses these for small-sample BvP matchups.
Comp data temporarily unavailable.