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CJ Abrams
SS · LHB · RHP · WSN
// TONIGHT'S MATCHUP
Our track record
settled S/A/B picks on CJ Abrams, by confidence tier| Tier | Record | Hit rate | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| S | 6-2 | 75% | +42.2% |
| A | 7-6 | 54% | +39.1% |
| B | 6-5 | 55% | -4.2% |
Combined 19-13 · n=32 · ROI +25.0% · avg CLV -0.2 pts · beat close 35%
Matchup
CJ Abrams (LHB) vs Bryce Elder RHPfavors batterfavors pitcherPitch-type matchup
Bryce Elder's arsenal × how CJ Abrams hits it · since 2025 · TOP = batter's spotxwOBA = expected wOBA from exit velo + launch angle. Green favors the batter, red favors the pitcher.
Hit-rate history
per-game results vs the line · green = over · red = underRecent form
per-game over the last 10Avg PA4.3Plate Appearancesavg 4.3
Hitsavg 1.1
Singlesavg 0.6
Doublesavg 0.1
Total Basesavg 2.4
Home Runsavg 0.4
Strikeoutsavg 1.1
Walksavg 0.6
Tonight's lines
2026-08-04 · every line we grade — bet any, not just the headline · BEST = best edge · Move = open→now (CLV once settled)Splits
Career n=2,379 PA · 2023-03-30 → 2026-07-29
xStats luck
xwOBA0.314
wOBA0.351
delta+0.037 hot
n=469 PA
Spray chart
801 balls in play since 2025· wind 5 mph cross-windBalls in play801
HR rate5.9%
Hard-hit (95+)39%
Avg exit velo88.4 mph
Ground ball38%
Line drive23%
Fly ball29%
What kind of arm does he crush?
top 3 pitcher traits by |lift|
+40.6%significant
n=438 games · 15/75 HR when active
-27.0%significant
n=429 games · 28/249 HR when active
+34.3%significant
n=438 games · 47/301 HR when active
// PLAYER DNA
HR signature· refreshed 2026-08-04
// TONIGHT
0 / 0HELPING · IN PLAY
No DNA factors in play tonight
helping tonighthurting tonightnot in play tonight
Batting 3-4-5 in the order
1.83× HR rate
108 yes / 334 no · 63 HRs
Hot streak (L5 avg EV > career baseline)
+48%
245 yes / 192 no · 63 HRs
Vs. fly-ball-prone pitcher (FB% allowed > 40%)
+41%
75 yes / 363 no · 62 HRs
Platoon advantage (LHB-vs-RHP or RHB-vs-LHP)
+35%
201 yes / 93 no · 42 HRs
Playing at home
0.66× HR rate
228 yes / 214 no · 63 HRs
Vs. pull-fly-ball-prone pitcher (>18%)
+34%
301 yes / 137 no · 62 HRs
Vs. fastball-heavy pitcher (FB% ≥ 55%)
−27%
249 yes / 180 no · 57 HRs
First-pitch temperature > 78°F
+21%
96 yes / 330 no · 63 HRs
// 20 more factors — small sample / no significant lift
Vs. barrel-prone pitcher (Barrel% allowed > 9%)
+21%
1 yes / 437 no · 62 HRs
Opposing starter coming off >7 days rest
+20%
81 yes / 335 no · 60 HRs
No rest day (B2B or doubleheader)
−16%
339 yes / 102 no · 63 HRs
HR-suppressing park (factor ≤ 0.95)
+15%
53 yes / 388 no · 63 HRs
Summer game (Jun-Aug)
+14%
201 yes / 241 no · 63 HRs
Vs. high-contact-quality pitcher (avg EV allowed ≥ 89 mph)
+14%
194 yes / 248 no · 63 HRs
3rd time through order vs starter
+13%
237 yes / 205 no · 63 HRs
Rested (2+ days off)
+13%
22 yes / 419 no · 63 HRs
Cold month (Apr / Sep / Oct)
+12%
114 yes / 328 no · 63 HRs
HR-friendly park (factor ≥ 1.10)
+9%
50 yes / 391 no · 63 HRs
Vs. HR-prone pitcher (HR/PA > 3.8%)
+8%
84 yes / 357 no · 63 HRs
≥1 career HR vs this pitcher
+6%
32 yes / 410 no · 63 HRs
Vs. short-leash starter (avg IP < 5.0)
−5%
189 yes / 246 no · 62 HRs
Wind blowing out (≥10 mph, outdoor)
neutral
6 yes / 420 no · 63 HRs
Opposing starter's recent FB velo down ≥1 mph
neutral
48 yes / 333 no · 54 HRs
Vs. high-xwOBA pitcher (xwOBA allowed > .340)
neutral
100 yes / 342 no · 63 HRs
Vs. hittable pitcher (BAA > .260)
neutral
92 yes / 350 no · 63 HRs
Vs. low-whiff pitcher (whiff% < 22%)
neutral
0 yes / 0 no · 0 HRs
≥3 career HRs vs this pitcher
neutral
0 yes / 442 no · 63 HRs
≥2 career HRs vs this pitcher
neutral
0 yes / 442 no · 63 HRs
// LIFT = P(HR | factor true) ÷ P(HR | factor false), Bayesian- shrunk with K=30 pseudo-games. Significance requires |lift − 1| ≥ 0.20 AND smaller cohort n ≥ 15. Cohort = top 60 HR hitters, last 2 seasons. Refreshed weekly. Green/red = the factor's effect on tonight's HR chance; gray = not in play tonight.
Last 10 games
Per-game outcomes — most recent first.
Nearest neighbors
Top 10 hitters most similar to CJ Abrams across 38 features. Comp Lab uses these for small-sample BvP matchups.
Comp data temporarily unavailable.