Corbin Carroll

RF · LHB · LHP · ARI

// TONIGHT'S MATCHUP

Away @

STL

Starter

Andre Pallante (RHP)

Stadium

Busch Stadium

Model HR%

16.3%

Model Hits%

70.5%

Tonight's top play

Hits OVER 0.5+3.8% edgemodel 71% · grade B

Why: NOT Opposing starter coming off >7 days rest: -44.9% lift over 323 games · strong vs the Four-Seam (41% usage, .525 xwOBA).

Verdict

one call per prop — does the model agree with recent reality?

Prop	Pick	Model	Edge	L10	Verdict
Hits	OVER 0.5	71%	+3.8%	70%	STRONG
Home Runs	OVER 0.5	16%	+1.4%	20%	CAUTION

Our track record

settled S/A/B picks on Corbin Carroll, by confidence tier

Tier	Record	Hit rate	ROI
S	2-1	67%	-0.7%
A	1-0	100%	+46.1%
B	2-1	67%	-0.3%

Combined 5-2 · n=7 · ROI +6.2% · avg CLV -1.2 pts · beat close 0%

Matchup

Corbin Carroll (LHB) vs Andre Pallante RHPfavors batterfavors pitcher

Andre Pallante RHP · season · 74.9 IP · 322 BF

BAA

.230

wOBA

.280

SLG

.360

ISO

.130

WHIP

1.29

HR/9

1.08

BB%

9.3%

19.3%

Whiff%

—

Barrel%

0.6%

HH%

33.5%

FB%

28.4%

HR/FB%

18.0%

Corbin Carroll hitting

Split	H-AB	BA	SLG	ISO	HR	BB%	K%
Season	77-287	.268	.533	.265	14	12.5%	24.7%
vs RHP	40-189	.212	.476	.265	11	13.7%	27.0%

Pitch-type matchup

Andre Pallante's arsenal × how Corbin Carroll hits it · since 2025 · TOP = batter's spot

Andre Pallante throws

Pitch	Usage	Velo	Whiff	xwOBA
TOPFour-Seam	41%	94.5	13%	.373
TOPSlider	28%	87.4	33%	.320
TOPKnuckle Curve	15%	78.0	36%	.359
Sinker	15%	95.0	12%	.273
Splitter	1%	87.3	33%	.150
Changeup	0%	90.5	0%	.222
Sweeper	0%	83.0	0%	—

Corbin Carroll vs each

Pitch	Seen	Whiff	xwOBA	EV
TOPFour-Seam	1050	25%	.525	94.8
TOPSlider	549	28%	.483	92.4
TOPKnuckle Curve	62	39%	.468	100.7
Sinker	528	18%	.345	91.0
Splitter	141	30%	.464	93.6
Changeup	312	25%	.399	88.8
Sweeper	245	19%	.329	87.4

xwOBA = expected wOBA from exit velo + launch angle. Green favors the batter, red favors the pitcher.

Hit-rate history

per-game results vs the line · green = over · red = under

OVER

0.5

Hits

70%7/10 · L10 · avg 1.0

Our model71% OVER+3.8% edgeB

Recent form

per-game over the last 10Avg PA4.3

Plate Appearancesavg 4.3

Hitsavg 1.0

Singlesavg 0.6

Doublesavg 0.1

Total Basesavg 1.9

Home Runsavg 0.2

Strikeoutsavg 0.7

Walksavg 0.3

Tonight's lines

2026-06-22 · every line we grade — bet any, not just the headline · BEST = best edge · Move = open→now (CLV once settled)

Doubles + Triples

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Track
0.5	—	PASS	11%	—	+375	+0.0	—

Hits

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Track
BEST0.5	OVER	B	71%	+3.8%	-200	+1.3	Sign in
1.5	OVER	PASS	28%	-1.9%	+230	+0.9	Sign in
2.5	OVER	PASS	6%	-4.3%	+900	+0.9	Sign in

Home Runs

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Track
BEST0.5	OVER	PASS	16%	+1.4%	+569	+0.8	Sign in

RBIs

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Track
0.5	—	S	11%	—	+150	+3.1	—
1.5	—	B	8%	—	+450	+1.5	—

Singles

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Track
0.5	—	PASS	50%	—	+100	+1.2	—
1.5	—	PASS	12%	—	+600	+0.0	—

Total Bases

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Track
1.5	—	PASS	45%	—	+130	+1.5	—

Same-game parlay

pick 2+ — we price the correlation the book won't

Splits

Career n=328 PA · 2026-03-15 → 2026-06-20

Season Career

Split	H-AB	BA	SLG	ISO	2B	3B	HR	BB	K%
Season 2026 season	77-287	.268	.533	.265	16	9	14	41	24.7%
vs LHP left-handed pitching	37-98	.378	.643	.265	7	5	3	11	20.4%
vs RHP right-handed pitching	40-189	.212	.476	.265	9	4	11	30	27.0%
Last 15 days recent form	12-46	.261	.587	.326	1	1	4	6	17.4%
vs Andre Pallante tonight's starting pitcher	2-5	.400	.400	.000	0	0	0	2	20.0%
vs STL tonight's opponent (full roster)	6-28	.214	.429	.214	1	1	1	4	14.3%

xStats luck

xwOBA0.357

wOBA0.369

delta+0.012 hot

n=327 PA

Spray chart

647 balls in play since 2025

Balls in play647

HR rate7.0%

Hard-hit (95+)54%

Avg exit velo93.0 mph

Ground ball38%

Line drive22%

Fly ball30%

What kind of arm does he crush?

top 3 pitcher traits by |lift|

Opposing starter coming off >7 days rest

-44.9%significant

n=382 games · 4/59 HR when active

Vs. high-contact-quality pitcher (avg EV allowed ≥ 89 mph)

+63.8%significant

n=410 games · 40/191 HR when active

≥1 career HR vs this pitcher

+47.2%significant

n=410 games · 9/32 HR when active

// PLAYER DNA

HR signature· refreshed 2026-06-16

// TONIGHT

3 / 5FAVORABLE

Mixed, leaning favorable

// TREND TRIGGERS · TONIGHT

-45% HR rate when opposing starter coming off >7 days rest.
+41% HR rate when summer game (jun-aug).
+35% HR rate when platoon advantage (lhb-vs-rhp or rhb-vs-lhp).

3rd time through order vs starter

2.02× HR rate

285 yes / 125 no · 66 HRs

Vs. high-contact-quality pitcher (avg EV allowed ≥ 89 mph)

1.64× HR rate

191 yes / 219 no · 66 HRs

First-pitch temperature > 78°F

+50%

168 yes / 236 no · 64 HRs

≥1 career HR vs this pitcher

+47%

32 yes / 378 no · 66 HRs

Opposing starter coming off >7 days rest

0.55× HR rate

59 yes / 323 no · 64 HRs

Summer game (Jun-Aug)

+41%

153 yes / 257 no · 66 HRs

Platoon advantage (LHB-vs-RHP or RHB-vs-LHP)

+35%

195 yes / 72 no · 41 HRs

Vs. hittable pitcher (BAA > .260)

−32%

86 yes / 324 no · 66 HRs

// 20 more factors — small sample / no significant lift

≥2 career HRs vs this pitcher

+39%

6 yes / 404 no · 66 HRs

Wind blowing out (≥10 mph, outdoor)

−18%

6 yes / 398 no · 64 HRs

Rested (2+ days off)

+16%

18 yes / 391 no · 66 HRs

Vs. fastball-heavy pitcher (FB% ≥ 55%)

+16%

211 yes / 189 no · 65 HRs

Vs. pull-fly-ball-prone pitcher (>18%)

+12%

273 yes / 136 no · 66 HRs

Cold month (Apr / Sep / Oct)

−11%

137 yes / 273 no · 66 HRs

No rest day (B2B or doubleheader)

−10%

314 yes / 95 no · 66 HRs

Hot streak (L5 avg EV > career baseline)

−9%

229 yes / 176 no · 65 HRs

Vs. HR-prone pitcher (HR/PA > 3.8%)

−9%

95 yes / 315 no · 66 HRs

Vs. fly-ball-prone pitcher (FB% allowed > 40%)

+7%

51 yes / 358 no · 66 HRs

Opposing starter's recent FB velo down ≥1 mph

−7%

61 yes / 296 no · 64 HRs

HR-suppressing park (factor ≤ 0.95)

+7%

40 yes / 368 no · 65 HRs

Playing at home

neutral

214 yes / 196 no · 66 HRs

Vs. short-leash starter (avg IP < 5.0)

neutral

170 yes / 237 no · 66 HRs

HR-friendly park (factor ≥ 1.10)

neutral

61 yes / 347 no · 65 HRs

Vs. high-xwOBA pitcher (xwOBA allowed > .340)

neutral

91 yes / 319 no · 66 HRs

Batting 3-4-5 in the order

neutral

137 yes / 273 no · 66 HRs

Vs. low-whiff pitcher (whiff% < 22%)

neutral

0 yes / 0 no · 0 HRs

Vs. barrel-prone pitcher (Barrel% allowed > 9%)

neutral

0 yes / 409 no · 66 HRs

≥3 career HRs vs this pitcher

neutral

0 yes / 410 no · 66 HRs

// LIFT = P(HR | factor true) ÷ P(HR | factor false), Bayesian- shrunk with K=30 pseudo-games. Significance requires |lift − 1| ≥ 0.20 AND smaller cohort n ≥ 15. Cohort = top 60 HR hitters, last 2 seasons. Refreshed weekly.

Last 10 games

Per-game outcomes — most recent first.

Date	PA	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	Outcomes
2026-06-21	4	1	0	0	0	1	1	1-for-3 · 1 BB · 1 K
2026-06-20	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	0-for-2
2026-06-19	5	3	1	1	0	1	0	3-for-4 · 1 3B · 4 RBI · 1 R · 1 BB
2026-06-17	5	1	0	0	1	0	1	1-for-5 · 1 HR · 4 RBI · 1 R · 1 K
2026-06-16	4	1	0	0	0	0	1	1-for-4 · 1 K
2026-06-15	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	1-for-4 · 1 R · 1 SB
2026-06-14	5	0	0	0	0	1	1	0-for-4 · 1 BB · 1 K
2026-06-13	5	2	0	0	1	0	1	2-for-5 · 1 HR · 1 RBI · 1 R · 1 K
2026-06-12	5	1	0	0	0	0	0	1-for-5 · 1 SB
2026-06-11	4	0	0	0	0	0	2	0-for-4 · 2 K

Nearest neighbors

Top 10 hitters most similar to Corbin Carroll across 38 features. Comp Lab uses these for small-sample BvP matchups.

Comp data temporarily unavailable.