← BACK TO SLATE
Andrew Vaughn
1B · RHB · RHP · MIL
// TONIGHT'S MATCHUP
Tonight's top play
Home Runs OVER 0.5+4.8% edgemodel 17% · grade B
Why: Vs. high-contact-quality pitcher (avg EV allowed ≥ 89 mph): +46.2% lift over 147 games.
Verdict
one call per prop — does the model agree with recent reality?Matchup
Andrew Vaughn (RHB) vs Martín Pérez LHPfavors batterfavors pitcherTonight's lines
2026-06-19 · every line we grade — bet any, not just the headline · BEST = best edge · Move = open→now (CLV once settled)Same-game parlay
pick 2+ — we price the correlation the book won'tSplits
Career n=134 PA · 2026-03-16 → 2026-06-17
xStats luck
xwOBA0.349
wOBA0.376
delta+0.027 hot
n=134 PA
// SPRAY PROFILE NOT YET AVAILABLE — needs ≥1 season of batted-ball data
What kind of arm does he crush?
top 3 pitcher traits by |lift|
+46.2%significant
n=311 games · 24/147 HR when active
+0.0%small sample
n=0 games · 0/0 HR when active
+0.0%small sample
n=0 games · 0/0 HR when active
// PLAYER DNA
HR signature· refreshed 2026-05-21
// TONIGHT
3 / 6FAVORABLE
Mixed, leaning favorable
// TREND TRIGGERS · TONIGHT
- +43% HR rate when summer game (jun-aug).
- -39% HR rate when hr-suppressing park (factor ≤ 0.95).
- -25% HR rate when cold month (apr / sep / oct).
Playing at home
1.53× HR rate
159 yes / 153 no · 41 HRs
Vs. high-contact-quality pitcher (avg EV allowed ≥ 89 mph)
+46%
147 yes / 164 no · 41 HRs
Summer game (Jun-Aug)
+43%
112 yes / 200 no · 41 HRs
HR-suppressing park (factor ≤ 0.95)
0.61× HR rate
39 yes / 273 no · 41 HRs
HR-friendly park (factor ≥ 1.10)
+28%
79 yes / 233 no · 41 HRs
Cold month (Apr / Sep / Oct)
−25%
107 yes / 205 no · 41 HRs
// 6 more factors — small sample / no significant lift
Rested (2+ days off)
+14%
17 yes / 294 no · 41 HRs
No rest day (B2B or doubleheader)
+11%
227 yes / 84 no · 41 HRs
Vs. low-whiff pitcher (whiff% < 22%)
neutral
0 yes / 0 no · 0 HRs
Vs. hittable pitcher (BAA > .260)
neutral
0 yes / 0 no · 0 HRs
Vs. fastball-heavy pitcher (FB% ≥ 55%)
neutral
0 yes / 0 no · 0 HRs
Vs. high-xwOBA pitcher (xwOBA allowed > .340)
neutral
0 yes / 0 no · 0 HRs
// LIFT = P(HR | factor true) ÷ P(HR | factor false), Bayesian- shrunk with K=30 pseudo-games. Significance requires |lift − 1| ≥ 0.20 AND smaller cohort n ≥ 15. Cohort = top 60 HR hitters, last 2 seasons. Refreshed weekly.
Last 10 games
Per-game outcomes — most recent first.
Nearest neighbors
Top 10 hitters most similar to Andrew Vaughn across 38 features. Comp Lab uses these for small-sample BvP matchups.
Comp data temporarily unavailable.