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Andrew Vaughn
1B · RHB · RHP · MIL
Our track record
settled S/A/B picks on Andrew Vaughn, by confidence tier| Tier | Record | Hit rate | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| S | 8-7 | 53% | +14.3% |
| A | 3-8 | 27% | -58.3% |
| B | 3-1 | 75% | +10.8% |
Combined 14-16 · n=30 · ROI -12.8% · avg CLV -0.5 pts · beat close 47%
Hit-rate history
per-game results vs the line · green = over · red = underRecent form
per-game over the last 10Avg PA3.1Plate Appearancesavg 3.1
Hitsavg 0.9
Singlesavg 0.7
Doublesavg 0.1
Total Basesavg 1.3
Home Runsavg 0.1
Strikeoutsavg 0.7
Walksavg 0.3
Splits
Career n=2,108 PA · 2023-03-30 → 2026-09-16
xStats luck
xwOBA0.325
wOBA0.364
delta+0.039 hot
n=344 PA
Spray chart
616 balls in play since 2025Balls in play616
HR rate3.7%
Hard-hit (95+)46%
Avg exit velo90.4 mph
Ground ball43%
Line drive25%
Fly ball26%
What kind of arm does he crush?
top 3 pitcher traits by |lift|
+46.2%significant
n=311 games · 24/147 HR when active
+0.0%small sample
n=0 games · 0/0 HR when active
+0.0%small sample
n=0 games · 0/0 HR when active
// PLAYER DNA
HR signature· refreshed 2026-05-21
helping tonighthurting tonightnot in play tonight
Playing at home
1.53× HR rate
159 yes / 153 no · 41 HRs
Vs. high-contact-quality pitcher (avg EV allowed ≥ 89 mph)
+46%
147 yes / 164 no · 41 HRs
Summer game (Jun-Aug)
+43%
112 yes / 200 no · 41 HRs
HR-suppressing park (factor ≤ 0.95)
0.61× HR rate
39 yes / 273 no · 41 HRs
HR-friendly park (factor ≥ 1.10)
+28%
79 yes / 233 no · 41 HRs
Cold month (Apr / Sep / Oct)
−25%
107 yes / 205 no · 41 HRs
// 6 more factors — small sample / no significant lift
Rested (2+ days off)
+14%
17 yes / 294 no · 41 HRs
No rest day (B2B or doubleheader)
+11%
227 yes / 84 no · 41 HRs
Vs. low-whiff pitcher (whiff% < 22%)
neutral
0 yes / 0 no · 0 HRs
Vs. hittable pitcher (BAA > .260)
neutral
0 yes / 0 no · 0 HRs
Vs. fastball-heavy pitcher (FB% ≥ 55%)
neutral
0 yes / 0 no · 0 HRs
Vs. high-xwOBA pitcher (xwOBA allowed > .340)
neutral
0 yes / 0 no · 0 HRs
// LIFT = P(HR | factor true) ÷ P(HR | factor false), Bayesian- shrunk with K=30 pseudo-games. Significance requires |lift − 1| ≥ 0.20 AND smaller cohort n ≥ 15. Cohort = top 60 HR hitters, last 2 seasons. Refreshed weekly. Green/red = the factor's effect on tonight's HR chance; gray = not in play tonight.
Last 10 games
Per-game outcomes — most recent first.
Nearest neighbors
Top 10 hitters most similar to Andrew Vaughn across 38 features. Comp Lab uses these for small-sample BvP matchups.
Comp data temporarily unavailable.