Dominic Canzone

DH · LHB · RHP · SEA

// TONIGHT'S MATCHUP

Away @

LAA

Starter

Ryan Johnson (RHP)

Stadium

Angel Stadium

Model HR%

20.1%

Tonight's top play

Hits UNDER 1.5+8.7% edgemodel 70% · grade S

Verdict

one call per prop — does the model agree with recent reality?

Prop	Pick	Model	Edge	L10	Verdict
Hits	UNDER 1.5	70%	+8.7%	80%	STRONG
Home Runs	UNDER 0.5	85%	-3.4%	90%	PASS

Our track record

settled S/A/B picks on Dominic Canzone, by confidence tier

Tier	Record	Hit rate	ROI
S	11-5	69%	+13.9%
A	10-8	56%	+69.0%
B	2-9	18%	-71.7%

Combined 23-22 · n=45 · ROI +15.0% · avg CLV -6.7 pts · beat close 26%

Matchup

Dominic Canzone (LHB) vs Ryan Johnson RHPfavors batterfavors pitcher

Ryan Johnson RHP · season · 99.3 IP · 427 BF

BAA

.237

wOBA

.345

SLG

.416

ISO

.179

WHIP

1.38

HR/9

1.63

BB%

11.0%

18.5%

Whiff%

—

Barrel%

5.0%

HH%

36.6%

FB%

44.4%

HR/FB%

14.5%

Dominic Canzone hitting

Split	H-AB	BA	SLG	ISO	HR	BB%	K%
Season	274-1109	.247	.450	.203	52	8.1%	24.4%
vs RHP	227-896	.253	.472	.219	46	6.7%	23.5%

Pitch-type matchup

Ryan Johnson's arsenal × how Dominic Canzone hits it · since 2025 · TOP = batter's spot

Ryan Johnson throws

Pitch	Usage	Velo	Whiff	xwOBA
TOPCutter	39%	90.7	25%	.313
TOPSinker	22%	93.6	9%	.413
TOPSweeper	20%	80.8	32%	.363
TOPSplitter	15%	84.6	38%	.257
Slider	3%	86.5	25%	.424
Four-Seam	1%	94.9	0%	1.423

Dominic Canzone vs each

Pitch	Seen	Whiff	xwOBA	EV
TOPCutter	123	9%	.363	89.4
TOPSinker	190	18%	.445	95.5
TOPSweeper	118	26%	.401	90.8
TOPSplitter	106	36%	.401	89.8
Slider	213	41%	.542	91.0
Four-Seam	484	18%	.477	95.3

xwOBA = expected wOBA from exit velo + launch angle. Green favors the batter, red favors the pitcher.

Hit-rate history

per-game results vs the line · green = over · red = under

OVER

0.5

Hits

90%9/10 · L10 · avg 1.1

Recent form

per-game over the last 10Avg PA4.4

Plate Appearancesavg 4.4

Hitsavg 1.1

Singlesavg 0.6

Doublesavg 0.2

Total Basesavg 2.0

Home Runsavg 0.1

Strikeoutsavg 0.7

Walksavg 0.5

Tonight's lines

2026-09-20 · every line we grade — bet any, not just the headline · BEST = best edge · Move = open→now (CLV once settled)

Doubles + Triples

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Save	Track
0.5	—	S	10%	—	+254	+0.7	Sign in to save	—

Hits

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Save	Track
BEST1.5	UNDER	S	70%	+8.7%	-159	+1.9	Sign in to save	Sign in

Home Runs

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Save	Track
BEST0.5	UNDER	PASS	85%	-3.4%	-770	+0.0	Sign in to save	Sign in

RBIs

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Save	Track
0.5	—	S	10%	—	+105	-1.0	Sign in to save	—

Singles

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Save	Track
0.5	—	PASS	52%	—	-155	+0.8	Sign in to save	—

Total Bases

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Save	Track
1.5	—	S	38%	—	-118	-0.8	Sign in to save	—

Same-game parlay

pick 2+ — we price the correlation the book won't

Splits

Career n=1,207 PA · 2023-07-08 → 2026-09-13

Season Career

Split	H-AB	BA	SLG	ISO	2B	3B	HR	BB	K%
Career all history	274-1109	.247	.450	.203	57	6	52	98	24.4%
vs LHP left-handed pitching	47-213	.221	.357	.136	7	2	6	34	28.2%
vs RHP right-handed pitching	227-896	.253	.472	.219	50	4	46	64	23.5%
Last 15 days recent form	14-52	.269	.481	.212	3	1	2	3	21.2%
vs LAA tonight's opponent (full roster)	2-18	.111	.278	.167	0	0	1	3	27.8%

xStats luck

xwOBA0.341

wOBA0.345

delta+0.004 hot

n=493 PA

Spray chart

574 balls in play since 2025

Balls in play574

HR rate6.1%

Hard-hit (95+)46%

Avg exit velo91.2 mph

Ground ball45%

Line drive24%

Fly ball26%

// PLAYER DNA

HR signature matrix hasn't been computed for this player yet. The weekly cron refreshes every Tuesday — check back if this player has joined the top-60 HR cohort.

Last 10 games

Per-game outcomes — most recent first.

Date	PA	H	2B	3B	HR	K	Outcomes
2026-09-14	4	1	0	0	0	2	1-for-4 · 1 R · 2 K
2026-09-13	5	1	1	0	0	1	1-for-5 · 1 2B · 1 K
2026-09-12	4	2	0	0	1	1	2-for-4 · 1 HR · 2 RBI · 1 R · 1 K
2026-09-11	5	2	0	1	0	1	2-for-5 · 1 3B · 1 K
2026-09-10	4	1	0	0	0	2	1-for-4 · 1 RBI · 1 R · 2 K
2026-09-09	4	0	0	0	0	0	0-for-4
2026-09-08	5	2	1	0	0	2	2-for-5 · 1 2B · 1 RBI · 2 K
2026-09-06	4	1	0	0	0	1	1-for-4 · 1 R · 1 K
2026-09-05	4	1	0	0	0	0	1-for-4 · 1 RBI
2026-09-04	5	1	0	0	0	0	1-for-5

Nearest neighbors

Top 10 hitters most similar to Dominic Canzone across 38 features. Comp Lab uses these for small-sample BvP matchups.

Comp data temporarily unavailable.