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Drake Baldwin
C · LHB · RHP · ATL
// TONIGHT'S MATCHUP
Tonight's top play
Hits OVER 0.5+3.2% edgemodel 74% · grade B
Why: strong vs the Cutter (27% usage, .466 xwOBA).
Verdict
one call per prop — does the model agree with recent reality?Our track record
settled S/A/B picks on Drake Baldwin, by confidence tier| Tier | Record | Hit rate | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| S | 7-5 | 58% | +61.9% |
| A | 8-4 | 67% | +55.9% |
| B | 3-6 | 33% | -52.3% |
Combined 18-15 · n=33 · ROI +28.6% · avg CLV -0.4 pts · beat close 29%
Matchup
Drake Baldwin (LHB) vs Brandon Williamson favors batterfavors pitcherPitch-type matchup
Brandon Williamson's arsenal × how Drake Baldwin hits it · since 2025 · TOP = batter's spotxwOBA = expected wOBA from exit velo + launch angle. Green favors the batter, red favors the pitcher.
Hit-rate history
per-game results vs the line · green = over · red = underRecent form
per-game over the last 10Avg PA4.8Plate Appearancesavg 4.8
Hitsavg 1.5
Singlesavg 1.0
Doublesavg 0.4
Total Basesavg 2.2
Home Runsavg 0.1
Strikeoutsavg 1.2
Walksavg 0.3
Tonight's lines
2026-09-22 · every line we grade — bet any, not just the headline · BEST = best edge · Move = open→now (CLV once settled)Same-game parlay
pick 2+ — we price the correlation the book won'tSplits
Career n=1,089 PA · 2024-03-15 → 2026-09-20
xStats luck
xwOBA0.357
wOBA0.361
delta+0.004 hot
n=612 PA
Spray chart
768 balls in play since 2025· wind 7 mph cross-windBalls in play768
HR rate5.7%
Hard-hit (95+)50%
Avg exit velo92.0 mph
Ground ball46%
Line drive24%
Fly ball26%
// PLAYER DNA
HR signature matrix hasn't been computed for this player yet. The weekly cron refreshes every Tuesday — check back if this player has joined the top-60 HR cohort.
Last 10 games
Per-game outcomes — most recent first.
Nearest neighbors
Top 10 hitters most similar to Drake Baldwin across 38 features. Comp Lab uses these for small-sample BvP matchups.
Comp data temporarily unavailable.