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Junior Caminero
3B · RHB · RHP · TBR
// TONIGHT'S MATCHUP
Our track record
settled S/A/B picks on Junior Caminero, by confidence tier| Tier | Record | Hit rate | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| S | 5-3 | 63% | +15.6% |
| A | 4-0 | 100% | +59.2% |
| B | 3-3 | 50% | +4.2% |
Combined 12-6 · n=18 · ROI +21.5% · avg CLV -2.0 pts · beat close 55%
Matchup
Junior Caminero (RHB) vs Spencer Arrighetti RHPfavors batterfavors pitcherHit-rate history
per-game results vs the line · green = over · red = underRecent form
per-game over the last 10Avg PA4.4Plate Appearancesavg 4.4
Hitsavg 1.4
Singlesavg 0.5
Doublesavg 0.0
Total Basesavg 4.1
Home Runsavg 0.9
Strikeoutsavg 0.7
Walksavg 0.4
Tonight's lines
2026-07-03 · every line we grade — bet any, not just the headline · BEST = best edge · Move = open→now (CLV once settled)Splits
Career n=382 PA · 2026-03-17 → 2026-07-01
xStats luck
xwOBA0.365
wOBA0.380
delta+0.015 hot
n=381 PA
// SPRAY PROFILE NOT YET AVAILABLE — needs ≥1 season of batted-ball data
What kind of arm does he crush?
top 3 pitcher traits by |lift|
-33.7%significant
n=266 games · 1/19 HR when active
-29.2%significant
n=241 games · 5/38 HR when active
+36.2%significant
n=262 games · 16/47 HR when active
// PLAYER DNA
HR signature· refreshed 2026-06-30
// TONIGHT
2 / 2HELPING · IN PLAY
Leaning favorable
// IN PLAY TONIGHT
- +36% HR rate when summer game (jun-aug).
- +27% HR rate when vs pull-fly-ball-prone pitcher (>18%).
helping tonighthurting tonightnot in play tonight
Vs. fly-ball-prone pitcher (FB% allowed > 40%)
+36%
47 yes / 215 no · 63 HRs
Summer game (Jun-Aug)tonight
+36%
102 yes / 164 no · 63 HRs
≥1 career HR vs this pitcher
−34%
19 yes / 247 no · 63 HRs
Vs. short-leash starter (avg IP < 5.0)
+34%
102 yes / 156 no · 60 HRs
Opposing starter's recent FB velo down ≥1 mph
−29%
38 yes / 203 no · 56 HRs
HR-suppressing park (factor ≤ 0.95)
+28%
26 yes / 237 no · 62 HRs
HR-friendly park (factor ≥ 1.10)
−27%
31 yes / 232 no · 62 HRs
Vs. pull-fly-ball-prone pitcher (>18%)tonight
+27%
197 yes / 65 no · 63 HRs
First-pitch temperature > 78°F
−24%
108 yes / 149 no · 62 HRs
Vs. fastball-heavy pitcher (FB% ≥ 55%)
−20%
154 yes / 105 no · 61 HRs
// 18 more factors — small sample / no significant lift
Batting 3-4-5 in the order
+20%
204 yes / 62 no · 63 HRs
Opposing starter coming off >7 days rest
−17%
42 yes / 206 no · 61 HRs
Vs. HR-prone pitcher (HR/PA > 3.8%)
−17%
39 yes / 224 no · 62 HRs
3rd time through order vs starter
+14%
154 yes / 112 no · 63 HRs
Platoon advantage (LHB-vs-RHP or RHB-vs-LHP)
−14%
60 yes / 146 no · 44 HRs
Rested (2+ days off)
−7%
11 yes / 254 no · 63 HRs
Vs. high-xwOBA pitcher (xwOBA allowed > .340)
−7%
46 yes / 218 no · 63 HRs
No rest day (B2B or doubleheader)
−6%
206 yes / 59 no · 63 HRs
Vs. high-contact-quality pitcher (avg EV allowed ≥ 89 mph)
−6%
127 yes / 138 no · 63 HRs
Playing at home
+6%
139 yes / 127 no · 63 HRs
Vs. hittable pitcher (BAA > .260)
neutral
44 yes / 221 no · 63 HRs
Wind blowing out (≥10 mph, outdoor)
neutral
1 yes / 256 no · 62 HRs
Cold month (Apr / Sep / Oct)
neutral
83 yes / 183 no · 63 HRs
Hot streak (L5 avg EV > career baseline)
neutral
120 yes / 141 no · 63 HRs
Vs. low-whiff pitcher (whiff% < 22%)
neutral
0 yes / 0 no · 0 HRs
≥2 career HRs vs this pitcher
neutral
0 yes / 266 no · 63 HRs
≥3 career HRs vs this pitcher
neutral
0 yes / 266 no · 63 HRs
Vs. barrel-prone pitcher (Barrel% allowed > 9%)
neutral
0 yes / 262 no · 63 HRs
// LIFT = P(HR | factor true) ÷ P(HR | factor false), Bayesian- shrunk with K=30 pseudo-games. Significance requires |lift − 1| ≥ 0.20 AND smaller cohort n ≥ 15. Cohort = top 60 HR hitters, last 2 seasons. Refreshed weekly. Green/red = the factor's effect on tonight's HR chance; gray = not in play tonight.
Last 10 games
Per-game outcomes — most recent first.
Nearest neighbors
Top 10 hitters most similar to Junior Caminero across 38 features. Comp Lab uses these for small-sample BvP matchups.
Comp data temporarily unavailable.