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Junior Caminero
3B · RHB · RHP · TBR
Our track record
settled S/A/B picks on Junior Caminero, by confidence tier| Tier | Record | Hit rate | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| S | 14-6 | 70% | +20.6% |
| A | 11-3 | 79% | +60.0% |
| B | 6-3 | 67% | +12.6% |
Combined 31-12 · n=43 · ROI +31.8% · avg CLV -2.9 pts · beat close 33%
Hit-rate history
per-game results vs the line · green = over · red = underRecent form
per-game over the last 10Avg PA3.8Plate Appearancesavg 3.8
Hitsavg 0.9
Singlesavg 0.6
Doublesavg 0.2
Total Basesavg 1.4
Home Runsavg 0.1
Strikeoutsavg 0.7
Walksavg 0.3
Splits
Career n=1,618 PA · 2023-09-23 → 2026-09-27
xStats luck
xwOBA0.360
wOBA0.373
delta+0.013 hot
n=720 PA
Spray chart
1002 balls in play since 2025Balls in play1002
HR rate8.8%
Hard-hit (95+)52%
Avg exit velo93.3 mph
Ground ball47%
Line drive20%
Fly ball24%
What kind of arm does he crush?
top 3 pitcher traits by |lift|
-37.8%significant
n=308 games · 6/52 HR when active
-23.1%significant
n=331 games · 10/58 HR when active
+27.9%significant
n=347 games · 18/58 HR when active
// PLAYER DNA
HR signature· refreshed 2026-09-29
helping tonighthurting tonightnot in play tonight
Opposing starter's recent FB velo down ≥1 mph
0.62× HR rate
52 yes / 256 no · 72 HRs
Summer game (Jun-Aug)
+31%
159 yes / 189 no · 82 HRs
Vs. short-leash starter (avg IP < 5.0)
+28%
137 yes / 203 no · 80 HRs
Vs. hittable pitcher (BAA > .260)
+28%
58 yes / 289 no · 82 HRs
Vs. pull-fly-ball-prone pitcher (>18%)
+28%
256 yes / 87 no · 81 HRs
Vs. high-contact-quality pitcher (avg EV allowed ≥ 89 mph)
+26%
142 yes / 205 no · 82 HRs
Vs. HR-prone pitcher (HR/PA > 3.8%)
+25%
49 yes / 296 no · 81 HRs
Opposing starter coming off >7 days rest
−23%
58 yes / 273 no · 80 HRs
HR-suppressing park (factor ≤ 0.95)
+22%
35 yes / 309 no · 81 HRs
Vs. fly-ball-prone pitcher (FB% allowed > 40%)
+22%
50 yes / 293 no · 81 HRs
Vs. fastball-heavy pitcher (FB% ≥ 55%)
−21%
204 yes / 133 no · 78 HRs
// 17 more factors — small sample / no significant lift
≥2 career HRs vs this pitcher
+22%
2 yes / 346 no · 82 HRs
Platoon advantage (LHB-vs-RHP or RHB-vs-LHP)
−19%
79 yes / 192 no · 59 HRs
Batting 3-4-5 in the order
+17%
282 yes / 66 no · 82 HRs
HR-friendly park (factor ≥ 1.10)
−16%
49 yes / 295 no · 81 HRs
No rest day (B2B or doubleheader)
−14%
278 yes / 69 no · 82 HRs
First-pitch temperature > 78°F
−11%
166 yes / 172 no · 81 HRs
Hot streak (L5 avg EV > career baseline)
+10%
149 yes / 194 no · 82 HRs
Vs. high-xwOBA pitcher (xwOBA allowed > .340)
+8%
58 yes / 288 no · 82 HRs
Wind blowing out (≥10 mph, outdoor)
−6%
6 yes / 332 no · 81 HRs
3rd time through order vs starter
neutral
208 yes / 140 no · 82 HRs
Playing at home
neutral
177 yes / 171 no · 82 HRs
Cold month (Apr / Sep / Oct)
neutral
108 yes / 240 no · 82 HRs
≥1 career HR vs this pitcher
neutral
33 yes / 315 no · 82 HRs
Rested (2+ days off)
neutral
12 yes / 335 no · 82 HRs
Vs. low-whiff pitcher (whiff% < 22%)
neutral
0 yes / 0 no · 0 HRs
≥3 career HRs vs this pitcher
neutral
0 yes / 348 no · 82 HRs
Vs. barrel-prone pitcher (Barrel% allowed > 9%)
neutral
0 yes / 343 no · 81 HRs
// LIFT = P(HR | factor true) ÷ P(HR | factor false), Bayesian- shrunk with K=30 pseudo-games. Significance requires |lift − 1| ≥ 0.20 AND smaller cohort n ≥ 15. Cohort = top 60 HR hitters, last 2 seasons. Refreshed weekly. Green/red = the factor's effect on tonight's HR chance; gray = not in play tonight.
Last 10 games
Per-game outcomes — most recent first.
Nearest neighbors
Top 10 hitters most similar to Junior Caminero across 38 features. Comp Lab uses these for small-sample BvP matchups.
Comp data temporarily unavailable.