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Junior Caminero
3B · RHB · RHP · TBR
// TONIGHT'S MATCHUP
Tonight's top play
Home Runs OVER 0.5+3.6% edgemodel 23% · grade B
Why: NOT Opposing starter's recent FB velo down ≥1 mph: -35.9% lift over 228 games · strong vs the Four-Seam (41% usage, .532 xwOBA).
Verdict
one call per prop — does the model agree with recent reality?Our track record
settled S/A/B picks on Junior Caminero, by confidence tier| Tier | Record | Hit rate | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| S | 8-2 | 80% | +41.5% |
| A | 5-5 | 50% | +0.2% |
| B | 5-2 | 71% | +27.7% |
Combined 18-9 · n=27 · ROI +22.6% · avg CLV -3.4 pts · beat close 41%
Matchup
Junior Caminero (RHB) vs Trevor Rogers LHPfavors batterfavors pitcherPitch-type matchup
Trevor Rogers's arsenal × how Junior Caminero hits it · since 2025 · TOP = batter's spotxwOBA = expected wOBA from exit velo + launch angle. Green favors the batter, red favors the pitcher.
Hit-rate history
per-game results vs the line · green = over · red = underRecent form
per-game over the last 10Avg PA4.4Plate Appearancesavg 4.4
Hitsavg 0.6
Singlesavg 0.3
Doublesavg 0.0
Total Basesavg 1.5
Home Runsavg 0.3
Strikeoutsavg 1.0
Walksavg 0.6
Tonight's lines
2026-08-17 · every line we grade — bet any, not just the headline · BEST = best edge · Move = open→now (CLV once settled)Same-game parlay
pick 2+ — we price the correlation the book won'tSplits
Career n=1,446 PA · 2023-09-23 → 2026-08-14
xStats luck
xwOBA0.370
wOBA0.381
delta+0.011 hot
n=548 PA
Spray chart
880 balls in play since 2025Balls in play880
HR rate9.2%
Hard-hit (95+)53%
Avg exit velo93.5 mph
Ground ball48%
Line drive19%
Fly ball25%
What kind of arm does he crush?
top 3 pitcher traits by |lift|
-35.9%significant
n=271 games · 5/43 HR when active
-23.9%significant
n=285 games · 9/52 HR when active
-21.0%significant
n=294 games · 37/176 HR when active
// PLAYER DNA
HR signature· refreshed 2026-08-11
// TONIGHT
2 / 3HELPING · IN PLAY
Slight favorable lean
// IN PLAY TONIGHT
- +35% HR rate when summer game (jun-aug).
- +22% HR rate when vs pull-fly-ball-prone pitcher (>18%).
- −21% HR rate when vs fastball-heavy pitcher (fb% ≥ 55%).
helping tonighthurting tonightnot in play tonight
Opposing starter's recent FB velo down ≥1 mph
0.64× HR rate
43 yes / 228 no · 65 HRs
Summer game (Jun-Aug)tonight
+35%
139 yes / 164 no · 73 HRs
Vs. short-leash starter (avg IP < 5.0)
+24%
114 yes / 181 no · 71 HRs
Opposing starter coming off >7 days rest
−24%
52 yes / 233 no · 71 HRs
Vs. pull-fly-ball-prone pitcher (>18%)tonight
+22%
226 yes / 72 no · 72 HRs
Vs. hittable pitcher (BAA > .260)
+22%
49 yes / 253 no · 73 HRs
Vs. fastball-heavy pitcher (FB% ≥ 55%)tonight
−21%
176 yes / 118 no · 70 HRs
// 21 more factors — small sample / no significant lift
≥2 career HRs vs this pitcher
+22%
2 yes / 301 no · 73 HRs
≥1 career HR vs this pitcher
−18%
25 yes / 278 no · 73 HRs
HR-suppressing park (factor ≤ 0.95)
+18%
29 yes / 270 no · 72 HRs
Platoon advantage (LHB-vs-RHP or RHB-vs-LHP)
−17%
66 yes / 171 no · 52 HRs
HR-friendly park (factor ≥ 1.10)
−16%
38 yes / 261 no · 72 HRs
Batting 3-4-5 in the order
+15%
240 yes / 63 no · 73 HRs
First-pitch temperature > 78°F
−14%
135 yes / 158 no · 72 HRs
3rd time through order vs starter
+12%
177 yes / 126 no · 73 HRs
No rest day (B2B or doubleheader)
−8%
238 yes / 64 no · 73 HRs
Vs. fly-ball-prone pitcher (FB% allowed > 40%)
+8%
41 yes / 257 no · 72 HRs
Hot streak (L5 avg EV > career baseline)
+8%
136 yes / 162 no · 73 HRs
Vs. high-xwOBA pitcher (xwOBA allowed > .340)
−6%
58 yes / 243 no · 73 HRs
Vs. HR-prone pitcher (HR/PA > 3.8%)
neutral
39 yes / 261 no · 72 HRs
Vs. high-contact-quality pitcher (avg EV allowed ≥ 89 mph)
neutral
137 yes / 165 no · 73 HRs
Wind blowing out (≥10 mph, outdoor)
neutral
1 yes / 292 no · 72 HRs
Playing at home
neutral
155 yes / 148 no · 73 HRs
Rested (2+ days off)
neutral
12 yes / 290 no · 73 HRs
Vs. barrel-prone pitcher (Barrel% allowed > 9%)
neutral
0 yes / 298 no · 72 HRs
≥3 career HRs vs this pitcher
neutral
0 yes / 303 no · 73 HRs
Vs. low-whiff pitcher (whiff% < 22%)
neutral
0 yes / 0 no · 0 HRs
Cold month (Apr / Sep / Oct)
neutral
83 yes / 220 no · 73 HRs
// LIFT = P(HR | factor true) ÷ P(HR | factor false), Bayesian- shrunk with K=30 pseudo-games. Significance requires |lift − 1| ≥ 0.20 AND smaller cohort n ≥ 15. Cohort = top 60 HR hitters, last 2 seasons. Refreshed weekly. Green/red = the factor's effect on tonight's HR chance; gray = not in play tonight.
Last 10 games
Per-game outcomes — most recent first.
Nearest neighbors
Top 10 hitters most similar to Junior Caminero across 38 features. Comp Lab uses these for small-sample BvP matchups.
Comp data temporarily unavailable.