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Nick Gonzales
3B · RHB · RHP · PIT
// TONIGHT'S MATCHUP
Tonight's top play
Hits OVER 1.5+1.1% edgemodel 32% · grade PASS
Why: strong vs the Changeup (23% usage, .428 xwOBA).
Verdict
one call per prop — does the model agree with recent reality?Our track record
settled S/A/B picks on Nick Gonzales, by confidence tier| Tier | Record | Hit rate | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| S | 14-1 | 93% | +67.9% |
| A | 9-8 | 53% | +19.5% |
| B | 5-6 | 45% | -5.3% |
Combined 28-15 · n=43 · ROI +30.0% · avg CLV -0.7 pts · beat close 33%
Matchup
Nick Gonzales (RHB) vs Randy Dobnak favors batterfavors pitcherPitch-type matchup
Randy Dobnak's arsenal × how Nick Gonzales hits it · since 2025 · TOP = batter's spotxwOBA = expected wOBA from exit velo + launch angle. Green favors the batter, red favors the pitcher.
Hit-rate history
per-game results vs the line · green = over · red = underRecent form
per-game over the last 10Avg PA3.9Plate Appearancesavg 3.9
Hitsavg 0.8
Singlesavg 0.5
Doublesavg 0.3
Total Basesavg 1.1
Home Runsavg 0.0
Strikeoutsavg 0.6
Walksavg 0.3
Tonight's lines
2026-09-18 · every line we grade — bet any, not just the headline · BEST = best edge · Move = open→now (CLV once settled)Same-game parlay
pick 2+ — we price the correlation the book won'tSplits
Career n=594 PA · 2026-03-16 → 2026-09-15
xStats luck
xwOBA0.311
wOBA0.325
delta+0.014 hot
n=594 PA
Spray chart
767 balls in play since 2025· wind 3 mph blowing outBalls in play767
HR rate1.4%
Hard-hit (95+)34%
Avg exit velo86.6 mph
Ground ball50%
Line drive25%
Fly ball21%
// PLAYER DNA
HR signature matrix hasn't been computed for this player yet. The weekly cron refreshes every Tuesday — check back if this player has joined the top-60 HR cohort.
Last 10 games
Per-game outcomes — most recent first.
Nearest neighbors
Top 10 hitters most similar to Nick Gonzales across 38 features. Comp Lab uses these for small-sample BvP matchups.
Comp data temporarily unavailable.