← BACK TO SLATE
Nick Gonzales
3B · RHB · RHP · PIT
// TONIGHT'S MATCHUP
Tonight's top play
Home Runs OVER 0.5+4.3% edgemodel 11% · grade B
Why: strong vs the Four-Seam (47% usage, .357 xwOBA).
Verdict
one call per prop — does the model agree with recent reality?Our track record
settled S/A/B picks on Nick Gonzales, by confidence tier| Tier | Record | Hit rate | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| S | 9-1 | 90% | +57.3% |
| A | 7-1 | 88% | +112.9% |
| B | 4-3 | 57% | +152.1% |
Combined 20-5 · n=25 · ROI +101.6% · avg CLV -4.1 pts · beat close 33%
Matchup
Nick Gonzales (RHB) vs Logan Henderson RHPfavors batterfavors pitcherPitch-type matchup
Logan Henderson's arsenal × how Nick Gonzales hits it · since 2025 · TOP = batter's spotxwOBA = expected wOBA from exit velo + launch angle. Green favors the batter, red favors the pitcher.
Hit-rate history
per-game results vs the line · green = over · red = underRecent form
per-game over the last 10Avg PA4.3Plate Appearancesavg 4.3
Hitsavg 1.2
Singlesavg 1.1
Doublesavg 0.1
Total Basesavg 1.3
Home Runsavg 0.0
Strikeoutsavg 0.6
Walksavg 0.0
Tonight's lines
2026-08-04 · every line we grade — bet any, not just the headline · BEST = best edge · Move = open→now (CLV once settled)Same-game parlay
pick 2+ — we price the correlation the book won'tSplits
Career n=1,424 PA · 2023-06-23 → 2026-08-02
xStats luck
xwOBA0.297
wOBA0.310
delta+0.013 hot
n=460 PA
Spray chart
668 balls in play since 2025· wind 9 mph cross-windBalls in play668
HR rate1.6%
Hard-hit (95+)36%
Avg exit velo86.6 mph
Ground ball50%
Line drive25%
Fly ball21%
// PLAYER DNA
HR signature matrix hasn't been computed for this player yet. The weekly cron refreshes every Tuesday — check back if this player has joined the top-60 HR cohort.
Last 10 games
Per-game outcomes — most recent first.
Nearest neighbors
Top 10 hitters most similar to Nick Gonzales across 38 features. Comp Lab uses these for small-sample BvP matchups.
Comp data temporarily unavailable.