Jackson Merrill

CF · LHB · RHP · SDP

// TONIGHT'S MATCHUP

Home vs

MIA

Starter

Tyler Phillips (RHP)

Stadium

Petco Park

Model HR%

14.8%

Our track record

settled S/A/B picks on Jackson Merrill, by confidence tier

Tier	Record	Hit rate	ROI
S	10-2	83%	+52.6%
A	7-7	50%	+38.2%
B	5-1	83%	+252.6%

Combined 22-10 · n=32 · ROI +83.8% · avg CLV -0.8 pts · beat close 17%

Matchup

Jackson Merrill (LHB) vs Tyler Phillips RHPfavors batterfavors pitcher

Tyler Phillips RHP · season · 120.2 IP · 517 BF

BAA

.234

wOBA

.335

SLG

.387

ISO

.154

WHIP

1.36

HR/9

1.27

BB%

10.6%

19.1%

Whiff%

—

Barrel%

3.4%

HH%

43.3%

FB%

31.5%

HR/FB%

18.1%

Jackson Merrill hitting

Split	H-AB	BA	SLG	ISO	HR	BB%	K%
Season	150-604	.248	.430	.182	25	6.6%	25.0%
vs RHP	101-428	.236	.432	.196	20	8.0%	24.1%

Pitch-type matchup

Tyler Phillips's arsenal × how Jackson Merrill hits it · since 2025 · TOP = batter's spot

Tyler Phillips throws

Pitch	Usage	Velo	Whiff	xwOBA
TOPSinker	30%	95.6	9%	.293
Sweeper	23%	84.5	43%	.311
TOPCurveball	21%	84.0	41%	.386
Splitter	17%	87.4	34%	.247
Four-Seam	8%	95.2	8%	.420
Cutter	0%	90.4	0%	—

Jackson Merrill vs each

Pitch	Seen	Whiff	xwOBA	EV
TOPSinker	346	13%	.429	90.5
Sweeper	202	25%	.322	82.8
TOPCurveball	164	17%	.435	90.3
Splitter	92	46%	.299	83.5
Four-Seam	944	24%	.475	93.4
Cutter	218	24%	.370	91.1

xwOBA = expected wOBA from exit velo + launch angle. Green favors the batter, red favors the pitcher.

Hit-rate history

per-game results vs the line · green = over · red = under

OVER

0.5

Hits

100%10/10 · L10 · avg 2.0

Recent form

per-game over the last 10Avg PA4.6

Plate Appearancesavg 4.6

Hitsavg 2.0

Singlesavg 1.2

Doublesavg 0.2

Total Basesavg 3.8

Home Runsavg 0.4

Strikeoutsavg 1.1

Walksavg 0.2

Tonight's lines

2026-09-18 · every line we grade — bet any, not just the headline · BEST = best edge · Move = open→now (CLV once settled)

Home Runs

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Save	Track
0.5	UNDER	PASS	85%	—	—	—	Sign in to save	Sign in

Splits

Career n=647 PA · 2026-03-16 → 2026-09-16

Season Career

Split	H-AB	BA	SLG	ISO	2B	3B	HR	BB	K%
Season 2026 season	150-604	.248	.430	.182	27	4	25	43	25.0%
vs LHP left-handed pitching	49-176	.278	.426	.148	9	1	5	6	27.3%
vs RHP right-handed pitching	101-428	.236	.432	.196	18	3	20	37	24.1%
Last 15 days recent form	20-50	.400	.680	.280	3	1	3	2	14.0%
vs MIA tonight's opponent (full roster)	14-43	.326	.535	.209	3	0	2	6	11.6%
@ Petco Park tonight's stadium	3187-9964	.320	.726	.406	569	354	922	795	19.1%

xStats luck

xwOBA0.340

wOBA0.319

delta−0.021 due

n=647 PA

Spray chart

808 balls in play since 2025

Balls in play808

HR rate5.2%

Hard-hit (95+)49%

Avg exit velo90.4 mph

Ground ball38%

Line drive26%

Fly ball31%

// PLAYER DNA

HR signature matrix hasn't been computed for this player yet. The weekly cron refreshes every Tuesday — check back if this player has joined the top-60 HR cohort.

Last 10 games

Per-game outcomes — most recent first.

Date	PA	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	Outcomes
2026-09-17	4	1	0	1	0	0	1	1-for-4 · 1 3B · 2 RBI · 1 R · 1 K
2026-09-16	5	3	0	0	0	0	2	3-for-5 · 1 R · 2 K
2026-09-15	4	2	0	0	0	0	0	2-for-4
2026-09-14	5	3	0	0	0	0	1	3-for-5 · 1 RBI · 1 R · 1 K
2026-09-13	4	1	1	0	0	0	1	1-for-4 · 1 2B · 2 RBI · 1 K
2026-09-12	5	1	0	0	1	1	1	1-for-4 · 1 HR · 1 RBI · 1 R · 1 BB · 1 K
2026-09-11	5	3	1	0	0	0	0	3-for-5 · 1 2B · 2 R · 1 SB
2026-09-09	5	4	0	1	2	0	0	4-for-5 · 2 HR · 6 RBI · 2 R
2026-09-08	4	0	0	0	0	0	1	0-for-4 · 1 RBI · 1 K
2026-09-07	4	3	1	0	0	0	0	3-for-4 · 1 2B · 2 RBI · 1 SB

Nearest neighbors

Top 10 hitters most similar to Jackson Merrill across 38 features. Comp Lab uses these for small-sample BvP matchups.

Comp data temporarily unavailable.