Justin Crawford

CF · LHB · RHP · PHI

// TONIGHT'S MATCHUP

Away @

NYM

Starter

Jonah Tong (RHP)

Stadium

Citi Field

Model HR%

5.4%

Model Hits%

63.2%

Model K%

53.8%

Tonight's top play

Hits OVER 0.5+5.8% edgemodel 63% · grade A

Verdict

one call per prop — does the model agree with recent reality?

Prop	Pick	Model	Edge	L10	Verdict
Hits	OVER 0.5	63%	+5.8%	80%	STRONG
Home Runs	OVER 0.5	5%	-2.3%	10%	PASS

Our track record

settled S/A/B picks on Justin Crawford, by confidence tier

Tier	Record	Hit rate	ROI
S	24-7	77%	+43.3%
A	9-4	69%	+15.7%
B	8-4	67%	+57.0%

Combined 41-15 · n=56 · ROI +39.8% · avg CLV -0.8 pts · beat close 39%

Matchup

Justin Crawford (LHB) vs Jonah Tong RHPfavors batterfavors pitcher

Jonah Tong RHP · season · 25.6 IP · 110 BF

BAA

.220

wOBA

.274

SLG

.350

ISO

.130

WHIP

1.25

HR/9

0.70

BB%

9.1%

22.7%

Whiff%

—

Barrel%

6.1%

HH%

31.8%

FB%

42.4%

HR/FB%

7.1%

Justin Crawford hitting

Split	H-AB	BA	SLG	ISO	HR	BB%	K%
Season	111-426	.261	.350	.089	3	6.8%	18.8%
vs RHP	96-365	.263	.351	.088	2	6.4%	18.1%

Pitch-type matchup

Jonah Tong's arsenal × how Justin Crawford hits it · since 2025 · TOP = batter's spot

Jonah Tong throws

Pitch	Usage	Velo	Whiff	xwOBA
Four-Seam	55%	95.3	19%	.432
Changeup	27%	85.8	28%	.339
Curveball	12%	78.1	19%	.264
Cutter	4%	89.7	14%	—
Slider	2%	87.1	0%	.336

Justin Crawford vs each

Pitch	Seen	Whiff	xwOBA	EV
Four-Seam	286	14%	.333	85.1
Changeup	68	26%	.295	85.3
Curveball	42	29%	.252	89.0
Cutter	47	19%	.220	90.3
Slider	80	14%	.311	87.3

xwOBA = expected wOBA from exit velo + launch angle. Green favors the batter, red favors the pitcher.

Hit-rate history

per-game results vs the line · green = over · red = under

OVER

0.5

Hits

80%8/10 · L10 · avg 0.8

Our model63% OVER+5.8% edgeA

Recent form

per-game over the last 10Avg PA3.3

Plate Appearancesavg 3.3

Hitsavg 0.8

Singlesavg 0.5

Doublesavg 0.2

Total Basesavg 1.3

Home Runsavg 0.1

Strikeoutsavg 0.5

Walksavg 0.2

Tonight's lines

2026-09-20 · every line we grade — bet any, not just the headline · BEST = best edge · Move = open→now (CLV once settled)

Doubles + Triples

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Save	Track
0.5	—	PASS	8%	—	+525	+0.0	Sign in to save	—

Hits

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Save	Track
BEST0.5	OVER	A	63%	+5.8%	-135	-0.4	Sign in to save	Sign in
1.5	OVER	PASS	24%	+0.9%	+340	-1.1	Sign in to save	Sign in

Home Runs

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Save	Track
BEST0.5	OVER	PASS	5%	-2.3%	+1200	-0.6	Sign in to save	Sign in

RBIs

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Save	Track
0.5	—	S	4%	—	+345	-0.3	Sign in to save	—
1.5	—	PASS	2%	—	+900	-1.1	Sign in to save	—

Singles

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Save	Track
0.5	—	PASS	49%	—	+107	+0.5	Sign in to save	—
1.5	—	PASS	14%	—	+550	-1.3	Sign in to save	—

Strikeouts

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Save	Track
0.5	—	B	54%	—	-137	+0.0	Sign in to save	—

Total Bases

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Save	Track
1.5	—	PASS	31%	—	+250	-0.8	Sign in to save	—

Same-game parlay

pick 2+ — we price the correlation the book won't

Splits

Career n=457 PA · 2026-03-16 → 2026-09-17

Season Career

Split	H-AB	BA	SLG	ISO	2B	3B	HR	BB	K%
Season 2026 season	111-426	.261	.350	.089	19	5	3	31	18.8%
vs LHP left-handed pitching	15-61	.246	.344	.098	1	1	1	6	23.0%
vs RHP right-handed pitching	96-365	.263	.351	.088	18	4	2	25	18.1%
Last 15 days recent form	8-29	.276	.448	.172	2	0	1	2	10.3%
vs NYM tonight's opponent (full roster)	4-21	.190	.190	.000	0	0	0	0	23.8%
@ Citi Field tonight's stadium	537-2121	.253	.253	.000	0	0	0	0	9.9%

xStats luck

xwOBA0.273

wOBA0.291

delta+0.018 hot

n=457 PA

Spray chart

347 balls in play since 2025

Balls in play347

HR rate0.9%

Hard-hit (95+)37%

Avg exit velo85.0 mph

Ground ball59%

Line drive21%

Fly ball16%

// PLAYER DNA

HR signature matrix hasn't been computed for this player yet. The weekly cron refreshes every Tuesday — check back if this player has joined the top-60 HR cohort.

Last 10 games

Per-game outcomes — most recent first.

Date	PA	H	2B	HR	BB	K	Outcomes
2026-09-19	4	0	0	0	0	2	0-for-4 · 2 K
2026-09-17	4	1	0	0	0	0	1-for-4 · 1 RBI
2026-09-16	4	1	1	0	1	0	1-for-3 · 1 2B · 1 BB
2026-09-13	4	1	0	0	1	0	1-for-3 · 1 R · 1 BB
2026-09-12	3	1	0	1	0	0	1-for-3 · 1 HR · 1 RBI · 1 R
2026-09-11	2	1	0	0	0	0	1-for-2 · 1 RBI
2026-09-10	3	1	0	0	0	1	1-for-3 · 1 K
2026-09-09	4	1	0	0	0	1	1-for-4 · 1 R · 1 K
2026-09-08	2	1	1	0	0	0	1-for-2 · 1 2B · 1 R
2026-09-07	3	0	0	0	0	1	0-for-3 · 1 K

Nearest neighbors

Top 10 hitters most similar to Justin Crawford across 38 features. Comp Lab uses these for small-sample BvP matchups.

Comp data temporarily unavailable.