Justin Crawford

CF · LHB · RHP · PHI

// TONIGHT'S MATCHUP

Away @

BAL

Starter

Brandon Young (RHP)

Stadium

Oriole Park at Camden Yards

Model HR%

8.2%

Model Hits%

66.6%

Model K%

37.7%

Tonight's top play

Hits OVER 0.5+3.7% edgemodel 66% · grade B

Verdict

one call per prop — does the model agree with recent reality?

Prop	Pick	Model	Edge	L10	Verdict
Hits	OVER 0.5	66%	+3.7%	60%	STRONG
Home Runs	OVER 0.5	6%	-1.8%	0%	PASS

Our track record

settled S/A/B picks on Justin Crawford, by confidence tier

Tier	Record	Hit rate	ROI
S	15-2	88%	+62.4%
A	7-2	78%	+76.8%
B	4-4	50%	+67.2%

Combined 26-8 · n=34 · ROI +67.4% · avg CLV +0.1 pts · beat close 42%

Matchup

Justin Crawford (LHB) vs Brandon Young RHPfavors batterfavors pitcher

Brandon Young RHP · season · 102.3 IP · 440 BF

BAA

.241

wOBA

.315

SLG

.375

ISO

.134

WHIP

1.31

HR/9

0.97

BB%

8.4%

19.3%

Whiff%

—

Barrel%

2.5%

HH%

42.4%

FB%

37.0%

HR/FB%

10.6%

Justin Crawford hitting

Split	H-AB	BA	SLG	ISO	HR	BB%	K%
Season	80-313	.256	.339	.083	2	6.6%	21.7%
vs RHP	69-260	.265	.358	.092	2	5.8%	20.8%

Pitch-type matchup

Brandon Young's arsenal × how Justin Crawford hits it · since 2025 · TOP = batter's spot

Brandon Young throws

Pitch	Usage	Velo	Whiff	xwOBA
Four-Seam	43%	93.9	18%	.318
Splitter	19%	87.0	25%	.401
Curveball	14%	75.6	16%	.342
Slider	11%	83.1	29%	.349
Cutter	6%	86.8	19%	.386
Sinker	5%	93.2	5%	.347
Changeup	3%	87.1	27%	.551
Pitchout	0%	91.4	—	—

Justin Crawford vs each

Pitch	Seen	Whiff	xwOBA	EV
Four-Seam	286	14%	.333	85.1
Splitter	18	8%	.283	86.4
Curveball	42	29%	.252	89.0
Slider	80	14%	.311	87.3
Cutter	47	19%	.220	90.3
Sinker	114	8%	.274	86.7
Changeup	68	26%	.295	85.3
Pitchout	no sample

xwOBA = expected wOBA from exit velo + launch angle. Green favors the batter, red favors the pitcher.

Hit-rate history

per-game results vs the line · green = over · red = under

OVER

0.5

Hits

60%6/10 · L10 · avg 0.7

Our model66% OVER+3.7% edgeB

Recent form

per-game over the last 10Avg PA3.3

Plate Appearancesavg 3.3

Hitsavg 0.7

Singlesavg 0.7

Doublesavg 0.0

Total Basesavg 0.7

Home Runsavg 0.0

Strikeoutsavg 0.4

Walksavg 0.1

Tonight's lines

2026-08-02 · every line we grade — bet any, not just the headline · BEST = best edge · Move = open→now (CLV once settled)

Doubles + Triples

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Save	Track
0.5	—	PASS	9%	—	+550	+0.6	Sign in to save	—

Hits

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Save	Track
BEST0.5	OVER	B	66%	+3.7%	-164	+0.7	Sign in to save	Sign in
1.5	UNDER	PASS	77%	+0.3%	-450	+0.0	Sign in to save	Sign in
2.5	OVER	PASS	5%	-2.1%	+1300	-0.5	Sign in to save	Sign in

Home Runs

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Save	Track
BEST0.5	OVER	PASS	6%	-1.8%	+1200	-2.2	Sign in to save	Sign in

RBIs

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Save	Track
0.5	—	S	4%	—	+272	+1.6	Sign in to save	—
1.5	—	PASS	2%	—	+900	+0.9	Sign in to save	—

Singles

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Save	Track
0.5	—	PASS	52%	—	-130	+4.1	Sign in to save	—

Strikeouts

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Save	Track
0.5	—	S	70%	—	-137	+0.0	Sign in to save	—

Total Bases

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Save	Track
1.5	—	B	30%	—	+190	+0.0	Sign in to save	—

Same-game parlay

pick 2+ — we price the correlation the book won't

Splits

Career n=335 PA · 2024-03-18 → 2026-07-29

Season Career

Split	H-AB	BA	SLG	ISO	2B	3B	HR	BB	K%
Career all history	80-313	.256	.339	.083	12	4	2	22	21.7%
vs LHP left-handed pitching	11-53	.208	.245	.038	0	1	0	6	26.4%
vs RHP right-handed pitching	69-260	.265	.358	.092	12	3	2	16	20.8%
Last 15 days recent form	5-27	.185	.185	.000	0	0	0	2	14.8%

xStats luck

xwOBA0.262

wOBA0.283

delta+0.021 hot

n=333 PA

Spray chart

248 balls in play since 2025· wind 3 mph cross-wind

Balls in play248

HR rate0.8%

Hard-hit (95+)33%

Avg exit velo83.9 mph

Ground ball56%

Line drive23%

Fly ball16%

// PLAYER DNA

HR signature matrix hasn't been computed for this player yet. The weekly cron refreshes every Tuesday — check back if this player has joined the top-60 HR cohort.

Last 10 games

Per-game outcomes — most recent first.

Date	PA	H	BB	K	Outcomes
2026-07-29	4	2	1	1	2-for-3 · 1 R · 1 BB · 1 K
2026-07-28	3	0	0	0	0-for-3
2026-07-27	4	1	0	0	1-for-4 · 1 RBI
2026-07-26	4	1	0	0	1-for-4 · 1 R
2026-07-25	1	0	0	0	0-for-1
2026-07-24	2	0	0	1	0-for-2 · 1 K
2026-07-20	4	1	0	0	1-for-4 · 1 RBI · 1 SB
2026-07-19	3	0	0	2	0-for-3 · 2 K
2026-07-18	1	0	0	0	0-for-1
2026-07-16	3	0	0	0	0-for-3

Nearest neighbors

Top 10 hitters most similar to Justin Crawford across 38 features. Comp Lab uses these for small-sample BvP matchups.

Comp data temporarily unavailable.