Chase DeLauter

RF · LHB · LHP · CLE

// TONIGHT'S MATCHUP

Home vs

Starter

Merrill Kelly (RHP)

Stadium

Progressive Field

Model HR%

15.3%

Model Hits%

67.0%

Model K%

32.4%

Tonight's top play

Hits UNDER 0.5+3.3% edgemodel 33% · grade B

Why: struggles vs the Changeup (27% usage, .213 xwOBA).

Verdict

one call per prop — does the model agree with recent reality?

Prop	Pick	Model	Edge	L10	Verdict
Hits	UNDER 0.5	33%	+3.3%	40%	LEAN
Home Runs	OVER 0.5	15%	-2.1%	10%	PASS

Our track record

settled S/A/B picks on Chase DeLauter, by confidence tier

Tier	Record	Hit rate	ROI
S	9-4	69%	+32.0%
A	2-5	29%	-32.0%
B	4-3	57%	-12.3%

Combined 15-12 · n=27 · ROI +3.9% · avg CLV -1.9 pts · beat close 15%

Matchup

Chase DeLauter (LHB) vs Merrill Kelly RHPfavors batterfavors pitcher

Merrill Kelly RHP · season · 116.5 IP · 501 BF

BAA

.275

wOBA

.393

SLG

.496

ISO

.220

WHIP

1.48

HR/9

1.85

BB%

9.4%

14.4%

Whiff%

—

Barrel%

5.8%

HH%

45.3%

FB%

31.9%

HR/FB%

22.9%

Chase DeLauter hitting

Split	H-AB	BA	SLG	ISO	HR	BB%	K%
Season	105-368	.285	.459	.174	13	10.5%	15.8%
vs RHP	65-254	.256	.441	.185	11	11.5%	14.2%

Pitch-type matchup

Merrill Kelly's arsenal × how Chase DeLauter hits it · since 2025 · TOP = batter's spot

Merrill Kelly throws

Pitch	Usage	Velo	Whiff	xwOBA
Changeup	27%	88.3	31%	.390
TOPFour-Seam	24%	91.9	18%	.432
TOPCutter	19%	90.7	15%	.399
Sinker	12%	92.3	7%	.415
Curveball	10%	81.7	18%	.378
Slider	9%	86.0	33%	.328
Pitchout	0%	90.3	—	—

Chase DeLauter vs each

Pitch	Seen	Whiff	xwOBA	EV
Changeup	125	19%	.213	85.6
TOPFour-Seam	291	15%	.364	93.2
TOPCutter	66	16%	.402	89.6
Sinker	121	2%	.445	91.1
Curveball	50	16%	.244	88.4
Slider	106	21%	.435	88.2
Pitchout	no sample

xwOBA = expected wOBA from exit velo + launch angle. Green favors the batter, red favors the pitcher.

Hit-rate history

per-game results vs the line · green = over · red = under

OVER

0.5

Hits

60%6/10 · L10 · avg 0.7

Our model33% UNDER+3.3% edgeB

Recent form

per-game over the last 10Avg PA4.4

Plate Appearancesavg 4.4

Hitsavg 0.7

Singlesavg 0.5

Doublesavg 0.1

Total Basesavg 1.1

Home Runsavg 0.1

Strikeoutsavg 0.8

Walksavg 0.6

Tonight's lines

2026-08-02 · every line we grade — bet any, not just the headline · BEST = best edge · Move = open→now (CLV once settled)

Doubles + Triples

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Save	Track
0.5	—	A	8%	—	+375	-0.7	Sign in to save	—

Hits

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Save	Track
BEST0.5	UNDER	B	33%	+3.3%	+236	-0.1	Sign in to save	Sign in
1.5	UNDER	PASS	73%	-1.9%	-300	—	Sign in to save	Sign in
2.5	OVER	PASS	7%	-4.5%	+800	+0.0	Sign in to save	Sign in

Home Runs

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Save	Track
BEST0.5	OVER	PASS	15%	-2.1%	+475	+0.7	Sign in to save	Sign in

RBIs

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Save	Track
0.5	—	S	10%	—	+134	+4.9	Sign in to save	—

Singles

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Save	Track
0.5	—	PASS	50%	—	+106	-0.7	Sign in to save	—

Strikeouts

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Save	Track
0.5	—	PASS	32%	—	-137	+0.0	Sign in to save	—

Total Bases

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Save	Track
1.5	—	S	34%	—	+116	+0.6	Sign in to save	—

Same-game parlay

pick 2+ — we price the correlation the book won't

Splits

Career n=411 PA · 2026-03-15 → 2026-07-31

Season Career

Split	H-AB	BA	SLG	ISO	2B	3B	HR	BB	K%
Season 2026 season	105-368	.285	.459	.174	23	1	13	43	15.8%
vs LHP left-handed pitching	40-114	.351	.500	.149	9	1	2	10	19.3%
vs RHP right-handed pitching	65-254	.256	.441	.185	14	0	11	33	14.2%
Last 15 days recent form	13-49	.265	.347	.082	4	0	0	7	20.4%
@ Progressive Field tonight's stadium	4008-12878	.311	.421	.110	994	0	140	598	19.3%

xStats luck

xwOBA0.330

wOBA0.355

delta+0.025 hot

n=409 PA

Spray chart

313 balls in play since 2025· wind 6 mph blowing out

Balls in play313

HR rate4.2%

Hard-hit (95+)46%

Avg exit velo91.1 mph

Ground ball42%

Line drive27%

Fly ball20%

// PLAYER DNA

HR signature matrix hasn't been computed for this player yet. The weekly cron refreshes every Tuesday — check back if this player has joined the top-60 HR cohort.

Last 10 games

Per-game outcomes — most recent first.

Date	PA	H	2B	HR	BB	K	Outcomes
2026-08-01	5	1	0	1	0	0	1-for-5 · 1 HR · 1 RBI · 2 R
2026-07-31	4	0	0	0	0	1	0-for-4 · 1 K
2026-07-29	5	1	0	0	2	1	1-for-3 · 1 R · 1 SB · 2 BB · 1 K
2026-07-28	4	1	0	0	0	0	1-for-4 · 1 RBI · 2 R
2026-07-28	4	0	0	0	0	1	0-for-4 · 1 K
2026-07-26	4	0	0	0	2	2	0-for-2 · 2 BB · 2 K
2026-07-24	4	1	1	0	1	0	1-for-3 · 1 2B · 1 R · 1 BB
2026-07-23	5	0	0	0	1	2	0-for-4 · 1 SB · 1 BB · 2 K
2026-07-22	5	1	0	0	0	0	1-for-5
2026-07-21	4	2	0	0	0	1	2-for-4 · 1 K

Nearest neighbors

Top 10 hitters most similar to Chase DeLauter across 38 features. Comp Lab uses these for small-sample BvP matchups.

Comp data temporarily unavailable.