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Verdict one call per prop — does the model agree with recent reality? Prop Pick Model Edge L10 Verdict Hits OVER 0.5 68% -2.6% 80% PASS Home Runs OVER 0.5 9% -3.1% 10% PASS
Our track record settled S/A/B picks on Kevin McGonigle, by confidence tier Tier Record Hit rate ROI S 15-8 65% +24.7% A 4-6 40% +0.1% B 3-14 18% -34.4%
Combined 22-28 · n=50 · ROI -0.3% · avg CLV -0.4 pts · beat close 44%
Matchup Kevin McGonigle (LHB) vs Davis Martin RHP favors batter favors pitcher Davis Martin RHP · season · 142.3 IP · 612 BF
Kevin McGonigle hitting
Split H-AB BA SLG ISO HR BB% K% Season 165-602 .274 .429 .154 19 14.2% 15.6% vs RHP 125-423 .296 .478 .182 16 15.6% 13.5%
Pitch-type matchup Davis Martin's arsenal × how Kevin McGonigle hits it · since 2025 · TOP = batter's spot Davis Martin throws
Pitch Usage Velo Whiff xwOBA TOP Four-Seam30% 94.0 19% .380 Changeup 22% 90.2 16% .378 Slider 20% 87.9 34% .387 TOP Sinker12% 92.9 5% .382 Curveball 7% 80.4 39% .456 Cutter 6% 89.7 28% .458 Sweeper 3% 83.7 27% .391 UN 0% 68.6 — —
Kevin McGonigle vs each
Pitch Seen Whiff xwOBA EV TOP Four-Seam277 7% .451 91.4 Changeup 133 23% .341 83.2 Slider 126 20% .324 84.2 TOP Sinker170 5% .350 88.9 Curveball 106 13% .310 82.6 Cutter 113 16% .414 86.1 Sweeper 58 11% .152 85.1 UN no sample
xwOBA = expected wOBA from exit velo + launch angle. Green favors the batter, red favors the pitcher.
Hit-rate history per-game results vs the line · green = over · red = under Hits80% Total Bases70% Home Runs10% Singles60% Doubles10% Triples20% Strikeouts50% Walks60% RBIs40% Runs Scored60% Hits + Runs + RBIs90% Stolen Bases0%
80% 8/10 · L10 · avg 1.3
Our model 68% OVER -2.6% edge PASS
1 vMIN 09-09 0 09-11 2 09-12 1 09-13 2 @TOR 09-14 0 @TOR 09-15 2 @TOR 09-16 2 @CHW 09-17 2 @CHW 09-18 1 @CHW 09-19
L5 80% 4/5 L10 80% 8/10 L20 75% 15/20 2026 69% 120/173 2025 67% 2/3
Recent form per-game over the last 10 Avg PA 4.9 Plate Appearances avg 4.9
5 4 6 4 5 4 5 5 6 5 Total Bases avg 2.1
2 0 5 3 2 0 2 2 4 1 Home Runs avg 0.1
0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Strikeouts avg 0.6
2 1 1 0 0 0 1 1 0 0
Tonight's lines 2026-09-20 · every line we grade — bet any, not just the headline · BEST = best edge · Move = open→now (CLV once settled) Doubles + Triples
Line Side Grade Model Edge Odds Move Save Track 0.5 — PASS 10% — +447 +2.7 Sign in to save —
Total Bases
Line Side Grade Model Edge Odds Move Save Track 1.5 — PASS 34% — +146 +15.5 Sign in to save —
Same-game parlay pick 2+ — we price the correlation the book won't -245 +240 +700
Price legs
Splits Career n=702 PA · 2025-03-17 → 2026-09-18
Split H-AB BA SLG ISO 2B 3B HR BB K% Career
all history
165-602 .274 .429 .154 26 5 19 100 15.6% vs LHP
left-handed pitching
40-179 .223 .313 .089 7 0 3 22 20.7% vs RHP
right-handed pitching
125-423 .296 .478 .182 19 5 16 78 13.5% Last 15 days
recent form
15-46 .326 .630 .304 1 2 3 10 15.2% @ Rate Field
tonight's stadium
600-1346 .446 .663 .217 0 146 0 300 11.4%
xStats luck
xwOBA 0.351
wOBA 0.352
delta +0.001 hot
n=697 PA
Spray chart 505 balls in play since 2025 All vLHP vRHP
Match Davis Martin's mix Balls in play 505
HR rate 3.8%
Hard-hit (95+) 38%
Avg exit velo 88.2 mph
Ground ball 33%
Line drive 23%
Fly ball 36%
// PLAYER DNA
HR signature matrix hasn't been computed for this player yet. The weekly cron refreshes every Tuesday — check back if this player has joined the top-60 HR cohort.
Last 10 games Per-game outcomes — most recent first.
Date PA H 2B 3B HR BB K Outcomes 2026-09-19 5 1 0 0 0 0 0 1-for-5 · 1 RBI 2026-09-18 6 2 0 1 0 1 0 2-for-5 · 1 3B · 4 RBI · 1 R · 1 BB 2026-09-17 5 2 0 0 0 1 1 2-for-4 · 1 BB · 1 K 2026-09-16 5 2 0 0 0 0 1 2-for-5 · 1 K 2026-09-15 4 0 0 0 0 3 0 0-for-1 · 1 R · 3 BB 2026-09-14 5 2 0 0 0 0 0 2-for-5 · 1 R 2026-09-13 4 1 0 1 0 1 0 1-for-3 · 1 3B · 2 RBI · 1 R · 1 BB 2026-09-12 6 2 0 0 1 1 1 2-for-5 · 1 HR · 1 RBI · 1 R · 1 BB · 1 K 2026-09-11 4 0 0 0 0 0 1 0-for-4 · 1 K 2026-09-09 5 1 1 0 0 1 2 1-for-4 · 1 2B · 1 R · 1 BB · 2 K
Nearest neighbors Top 10 hitters most similar to Kevin McGonigle across 38 features. Comp Lab uses these for small-sample BvP matchups.
Comp data temporarily unavailable.
