XSTATS REGRESSION BOARD
Lucky & unlucky.
The names regression hasn't caught yet.
Every batter's actual wOBA over the last 365 days vs the expected wOBA Statcast derived from launch speed and angle. The difference isn't skill, it's variance — and it's about to mean-revert. Lucky names are over-performing contact quality (fade them); unlucky names are under-performing (target them).
// AS OF 2026-08-02// 416 BATTERS PASSED THE 100-PA GATE
The wOBA-points delta is the regression signal, not a tier promise. A batter can stay lucky for weeks before contact luck normalizes — read it as a tilt on the model's base rate, not a directional bet on its own.
How we compute it →